Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[fci]

This is like 'Seinfeld Show' of threads, pages and pages about nothing.

I vote if a reliable (not the NAM, DGEX or Canadian) model doesn't show development in the next day of model runs, we put this thread out of its misery. Of course, my vote counts for little to nothing.

Although the idea of the thread running until 2010 when an actual hurricane enters the Caribbean from the Atlantic, extending to 50 pages, does have its appeal.

Nice Seinfeld reference!!!
And no mention of Texas Snow from you.
Perhaps this portends great posts from you for this season?

[tailgater]

The skeletal remains of the wave /trough can seen for virwing this moring at @ 17N 82W. Time sensetive.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[wxman57]

The upper trof is on its way out now. Won't be much left in a few days. The GFS did correctly predict the trof and enhanced thunderstorms in the region from 10+ days out, but it was not correct in its prediction of a low developing. Chances of any development in the region over the next week look slim to none, now.

[srainhoutx]

The upper trof is on its way out now. Won't be much left in a few days. The GFS did correctly predict the trof and enhanced thunderstorms in the region from 10+ days out, but it was not correct in its prediction of a low developing. Chances of any development in the region over the next week look slim to none, now.

High pressure sure looks to dominate the GOM for the next week. Time to start looking elsewhere for any development. Have a great weekend.

[Sanibel]

Persistence of a weak wave-like feature trying to form in shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC doesn't even analyze a wave in the Caribbean in the ltest disco...

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO
NEAR 11N81W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN
70W-77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

This exciting thread, with cool images, seems to me the "sequel" of this thread, which seems to be dying slowly, like Generalissimo Francisco Franco.

[tolakram]

Is he still dead? I haven't heard any news in a while.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is he still dead? I haven't heard any news in a while.

Generallissimo Francisco Franco is still dead

[Sanibel]

It wouldn't have maintained that central 'blob' if there wasn't something to it. A keen eye would understand the relationship of this weak persistence to the black IR of Sunday eve.

[tolakram]

Over the center of what?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html

You can clearly see low clouds moving from east to west, northwest and a vigorous area of convection with the tops streaming off to the northeast.

[gatorcane]

Just an upper-level trough-ridge interaction and nothing more:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N80W TO 12N81W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED N OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY E OF JAMAICA AND OVER W HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
70W-77W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON
SAT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1736.shtml?

[Sanibel]

That trough-like feature sputtered another pulse of convection off Colombia. I think everyone is in agreement conditions are hostile down there and sheared.

[wxman57]

Yep, shear is just ripping across the Gulf and Caribbean. Development unlikely.

[KWT]

Yep you can forget the idea of anything forming out there for now Wxman57 with that shear. Still I do suspect with the models suggestive of an Epac system the jet that has currently ripped apart anything that has tried to form on the ePAC will be shifted somewhat northwards and that may well in turn allow a small region of much lower shear in the Caribbean as well...

Still thus far its pretty classic El Nino type pattern out there really.

[Normandy]

Shear is bad across most of the Caribbean, but it has lightened up over the past few days. Best chance of development now is near Panama where the shear is very light. Still little chance of anything happening though.

[tailgater]

I really hate to keep dragging this thread on but the upper trough that was over western cuba looks to have drifted SW and if that continues, conditions over the southcentral Caribbean would probably improve a good bit. I haven't check the models yet i'm just guessing. What do yall think?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

I really hate to keep dragging this thread on but the upper trough that was over western cuba looks to have drifted SW and if that continues, conditions over the southcentral Caribbean would probably improve a good bit. I haven't check the models yet i'm just guessing. What do yall think?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

What you are seeing there is a tropical wave interacting with a trough axis, and the presence of the Colombian thermal low is enhancing activity in this area. All this mess is going to head west into Central America with no development expected at this time.

[tailgater]

I really hate to keep dragging this thread on but the upper trough that was over western cuba looks to have drifted SW and if that continues, conditions over the southcentral Caribbean would probably improve a good bit. I haven't check the models yet i'm just guessing. What do yall think?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

What you are seeing there is a tropical wave interacting with a trough axis, and the presence of the Colombian thermal low is enhancing activity in this area. All this mess is going to head west into Central America with no development expected at this time.

Im not saying there will be development, All the talk is about Shear and I'm thinking that will improve in the southcentral Carribbean.
There doesn't seem to be any tigger for development

[ronjon]

Might be something finally starting to get going over the western caribbean after 10 days of model runs predicting it. Shear is deceasing, while still high is now running about 20 kts at the mass of convection near JAM. The trough that was causing the heavy shear has moved out and an ULL is cutoff near the east coast of the Yuc - although it seems to be weakening as we speak. Probably not much time for development as steering takes whatever is here into the Yuc in a couple of days.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[NDG]

I guess the area to watch is off the tip of Nica/Honduras border, surface reports and sat loop indicating that a broad area of low pressure might trying to get going. Everything is moving west into C.A. but if stays just offshore of Honduras it might do something as UL conditions are improving as it moves westward before moving into Belize or Mexican Yucatan Peninsula, again, if it stays just offshore.