Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Ed Mahmoud]

ALL IS QUIET- EVERYWHERE

[Cainer]

It is weird - it's been nearly a month since our last WPac system! If I remember correctly, the longest gap between global tropical cyclones was in 2007; between Kong-rey (April 6) and Andrea (May 9), a gap of 33 days.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully this year won't be like 1977 when Atlantic, Eastern and Western Pacific were very inactive. I think that El Niño will prevent that in the Pacific.

[wxman57]

Hopefully this year won't be like 1977 when Atlantic, Eastern and Western Pacific were very inactive. I think that El Niño will prevent that in the Pacific.

Hopefully this year WILLbe like 1977 - inactive everywhere.

[Derek Ortt]

1977 also had a cat 5 in the GOM

[DESTRUCTION5]

1977 also had a cat 5 in the GOM

Im sure Wxman57 would love one of those to forecast this year...

[wxman57]

1977 also had a cat 5 in the GOM

Im sure Wxman57 would love one of those to forecast this year...

As good as hurricanes can be for business, I'm ready for a year with no named storms. I could finally get some work done.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully this year won't be like 1977 when Atlantic, Eastern and Western Pacific were very inactive. I think that El Niño will prevent that in the Pacific.

Hopefully this year WILLbe like 1977 - inactive everywhere.

Don't you like to track tropical cyclones? I do, and that's why I said "hopefully won't", I don't want very active seasons either but some powerfull "fish" tropical cyclones would be OK.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1977 also had a cat 5 in the GOM

Im sure Wxman57 would love one of those to forecast this year...

As good as hurricanes can be for business, I'm ready for a year with no named storms. I could finally get some work done.

I thought hurricanes were your work.

You didn't visit my Texas winter weather miracle snow threads very often, after all.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC better hurry up to develop something as June 19 1994 modern record for the latest storm formation date looms.

[wxman57]

I thought hurricanes were your work.

You didn't visit my Texas winter weather miracle snow threads very often, after all.

Yeah, it might get a little boring with no storms to forecast all season. And the clients may start to wonder why they're paying for our service if nothing develops. Would make for an interesting 2009 review presentation next year if there were no storms.

Didn't think of going to your winter weather thread, sorry. I was thinking about hurricanes all winter. Soon as one season ends in November, I'm working with our development team on upgrades for the next season. And I had about 60 speaking engagements from January through June. Sometimes as many as 8 in one week. I'm ready for a few weeks off after my last talk on June 24th.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The EPAC better hurry up to develop something as June 19 1994 modern record for the latest storm formation date looms.

It could be close...

[boca]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

[poof121]

Shear is definitely on the decrease in the Caribbean.


24 hours ago


Now

[tolakram]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

No need, most of us think it will be a wonderfully slow season.

[gatorcane]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

No need, most of us think it will be a wonderfully slow season.

I have been looking at long-range model runs and there is just about nothing in the Atlantic for the next couple of weeks. It's possible we'll go through June with really nothing significant. EPAC though looks to have something develop with the 12Z ECMWF guidance really bullish on development in the EPAC starting at 192 hours with a powerful system nearly making landfall in Mexico at 240 hours.

I'd expect some blob watching here and there but at this time, we may not even get a named storm in June in the Atlantic basin.

However, with that said -- one thing is certain. The tropics can change in a hurry. I would not get too used to it being so quiet that is all I can say. Just enjoy this quietness while you can and save it up for later in the season when you will need it most

[KWT]

EPAC really is starting very slowly, El Nino should in theory eventually allow the season to get going but it is taking its time getting going.

The Atlantic we sort of expected to be slow given the lower SST's and shear, however given the Pacific is on a long term downward cycle still so whilst El nino should boost numbers whether it'll be enough to boost the season above normal is a big question.

Its got to be 50-50 as to whether the EPAC record will fall...though saying that 1969 I think went till very late June before it had anything and its only a year out of the 'sat era' so to speak.

[Macrocane]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

Sorry, it might be a silly question but I'm kind of new in this forum, what does "season cancel" mean?

[Cookie]

I think you can blame me I seemed to have cursed everything my bad.

you can kick me out if you want.

[caneman]

I think were going to have a lot of season cancel threads this year. I mean more than usual.

Sorry, it might be a silly question but I'm kind of new in this forum, what does "season cancel" mean?

Welcome aboard. It is what some will say when they get frustrated when systems either don't develop or there is nothing on the horizon. Reverse people I disagree with would also fall in this column .