EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

[KWT]

Another burst going up close to the center, if this burst can hold for another 6-12hrs then I think this will have every chance of being upgraded to a TD.

Conditions don't look all that bad ahead of it either though if it goes too far west SST's do start to decline around 36-48hrs but its got every chance of going on to become at least a tropical storm now.

[cycloneye]

905
ABPZ20 KNHC 171138
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

Convection has persisted, but it looks a little ragged if convection doesn't decrease and it becomes more symmetric than we will have our first EPAC TD some time today.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

It looks similar to TD 1 in the Atlantic, with the center under the northernmost part of the convection.

[cycloneye]

It looks better than yesterday.Lets see if the organization continues and we can get TD 1-E out of this.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

This is from early this morning (if I'm reading it right) and it doesn't show a closed LLC.

[HURAKAN]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

[HURAKAN]

518
WHXX01 KMIA 171249
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC WED JUN 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090617 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090617 1200 090618 0000 090618 1200 090619 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 107.3W 16.6N 109.0W 17.6N 110.4W 18.7N 111.2W
BAMD 15.6N 107.3W 16.6N 108.7W 18.0N 109.8W 20.1N 110.1W
BAMM 15.6N 107.3W 16.9N 108.9W 18.0N 110.0W 19.7N 110.5W
LBAR 15.6N 107.3W 16.8N 108.7W 18.4N 109.9W 20.2N 110.7W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090619 1200 090620 1200 090621 1200 090622 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 111.3W 21.7N 111.4W 22.9N 111.3W 23.8N 112.4W
BAMD 22.9N 109.8W 30.3N 109.0W 39.1N 104.4W 45.1N 95.4W
BAMM 21.6N 110.1W 26.2N 109.1W 30.8N 107.6W 34.8N 103.9W
LBAR 22.3N 111.2W 28.0N 111.7W 35.5N 107.2W 40.8N 95.2W
SHIP 33KTS 27KTS 19KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 26KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 107.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 106.1W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 104.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 17 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15N106W...OR ABOUT 300 MILES
SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS NOTED ALONG AN
ELONGATED NE TO SW ORIENTED TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE
TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED THAT THERE WERE SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT ON
THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NW
OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

445
ABPZ20 KNHC 171733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[KWT]

Yep the LLC we saw yesterday seems to have weakened and the idea that we have multiple circulations within a broader one seems quite logical.

So whilst 92E still seems very likely to become a depression sooner rather then later but the sea temps do decrease to the north the further west the system goes. Something to watch.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 92, 2009061718, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1078W, 25, 1006, DB

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

So looks like the NHC are still expecting 92E to be caught by the trough that is digging down and recurve it into land so if it does develop we may have a landfalling tropical system. Seems to be following the GFDL model in the main.

Still is having a hard time holding the convection no doubt being caused by the end of the D-max which helped to flare up 92E in the first place more then likely.

[HURAKAN]

921
WHXX01 KMIA 171838
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC WED JUN 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090617 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090617 1800 090618 0600 090618 1800 090619 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 107.8W 17.2N 109.1W 18.2N 109.9W 19.2N 109.9W
BAMD 16.1N 107.8W 17.2N 108.9W 18.9N 109.6W 21.2N 109.5W
BAMM 16.1N 107.8W 17.3N 109.0W 18.7N 109.7W 20.3N 109.7W
LBAR 16.1N 107.8W 17.5N 108.8W 19.2N 109.5W 21.2N 109.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090619 1800 090620 1800 090621 1800 090622 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 109.9W 21.1N 110.0W 21.3N 110.3W 20.7N 111.4W
BAMD 23.8N 108.9W 30.2N 107.3W 37.4N 101.7W 40.6N 91.7W
BAMM 22.0N 109.4W 25.4N 109.2W 28.3N 109.7W 31.8N 110.1W
LBAR 23.5N 110.4W 29.6N 109.8W 37.9N 103.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 38KTS 35KTS 30KTS 20KTS
DSHP 38KTS 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 107.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 106.7W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 105.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Better defined at the surface but now it appears decoupled with the LLC below 15N and the MLC way above 15N. Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[KWT]

Ah yeah its quite obvious now when you look at that loop. There is a circulation down at 15N but the MLC is really strong and dominant.

See these things all the time in the Atlantic invests and it all depends on whether they can get coupled up, seems like the constant shear has led to it having quite a few problems afterall. Going to have a hard time doing anything really of note unless we can get them closer together.

[cycloneye]

933
ABPZ20 KNHC 172347
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

FORECASTER BEVEN