ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURRICANELONNY]

I know that RL. The signs are becoming more evident. That's why CPC put up an "El Nino Watch" on there site.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I know it's the average SOI. But check the drop today!

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

That big drop may be caused by a Kelvin Wave moving eastward.

[wxman57]

It's looking more and more likely that this will be a moderate El Nino season (Aug/Sep). If that's the case, then expect a lower number of named storms. Possibly only 8-9 but more likely in the 9-10 range. Just depends on what the NHC names. We could have already had 2 named storms if the NHC had been as liberal with a few systems this year as they've been in the past.

[cycloneye]

It's looking more and more likely that this will be a moderate El Nino season (Aug/Sep). If that's the case, then expect a lower number of named storms. Possibly only 8-9 but more likely in the 9-10 range. Just depends on what the NHC names. We could have already had 2 named storms if the NHC had been as liberal with a few systems this year as they've been in the past.

90L / 92L

[xironman]

Check out the TAO SST map on the previous page of comments. With .05 going all the way across and 1.0 making inroads it is only a matter of time before the Nino is called.

[cycloneye]

If all of that warm pool beneath the surface goes up,then it will be over for Neutral ENSO.

[boca]

If all of that warm pool beneath the surface goes up,then it will be over for Neutral ENSO.

Looking at that graphic it looks like that warmer water is slowly creeping upwards.

[KWT]

It's looking more and more likely that this will be a moderate El Nino season (Aug/Sep). If that's the case, then expect a lower number of named storms. Possibly only 8-9 but more likely in the 9-10 range. Just depends on what the NHC names. We could have already had 2 named storms if the NHC had been as liberal with a few systems this year as they've been in the past.

I suspect you may be right there, moderate El Nino seems to be the best call for now, though it has to be said despite the large drops of the SOI they still aren't that impressive compared to the bigger El Nino's and we've seen bigger even in the summer of 2004 which ended up being a top end weak event, so thats still a quite possible outcome as well. Whatever happens with the lower SST's that number range seems quite probable IMO.

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI

After reaching -49,it has risen in the last couple of days.

Code: Select all

10-Jun-2009    1011.39   1015.25    -36.20   
  11-Jun-2009    1008.89   1014.65    -49.56     
  12-Jun-2009    1010.47   1014.40    -36.69     
  13-Jun-2009    1012.00   1013.50    -19.61

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index data

The Daily SOI Index data continues to rise after plunging to -49 at the 11th of June.

Code: Select all

10-Jun-2009    1011.39   1015.25    -36.20
  11-Jun-2009    1008.89   1014.65    -49.56     
  12-Jun-2009    1010.47   1014.40    -36.69     
  13-Jun-2009    1012.00   1013.50    -19.61     
  14-Jun-2009    1012.43   1012.80    -11.67

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index Data

Today it has turned positive (+5.20) after plunging to -49.56 four days ago.

Code: Select all

11-Jun-2009    1008.89   1014.65    -49.56     
  12-Jun-2009    1010.47   1014.40    -36.69
  13-Jun-2009    1012.00   1013.50    -19.61
  14-Jun-2009    1012.43   1012.80    -11.67 
  15-Jun-2009    1013.93   1011.90      5.20

Daily numbers.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

30 day numbers.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly update

Still Neutral,but warming in all El Nino regions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Code: Select all

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño1+2 0.5ºC

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Data

Its like a yo-yo in the past 7 days.At June 17 it is at -9.77.

Code: Select all

 9-Jun-2009     1012.44   1013.85    -18.98 
  10-Jun-2009    1011.39   1015.25    -36.20   
  11-Jun-2009    1008.89   1014.65    -49.56   
  12-Jun-2009    1010.47   1014.40    -36.69     
  13-Jun-2009    1012.00   1013.50    -19.61     
  14-Jun-2009    1012.43   1012.80    -11.67   
  15-Jun-2009    1013.93   1011.90      5.20     
  16-Jun-2009    1014.44   1012.30      5.97     
  17-Jun-2009    1014.00   1014.10     -9.77     


http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

Bureau of Meteorology (Australians)= El Nino by July

17th of June update:

Details
The equatorial Pacific sea surface warmed significantly through May and has continued to warm through the first few weeks of June. This recent increase in SST is a continuation of a warming trend that has been observed since February 2009. Weak warm SST anomalies are now evident across most of the equatorial Pacific. The monthly indices for May were +0.6°C, +0.4°C and +0.4°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +0.8°C, +0.5°C and +0.4°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. Over the past two weeks NINO3 and NINO3.4 warmed slightly, by 0.2°C and 0.1°C respectively, while NINO4 remained similar in magnitude. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows the persistence of weak positive anomalies across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific has also continued to warm slowly through May and the first few weeks of June. All of the anomalously cool sub-surface water that featured between September 2008 and March 2009 during a resurgence of La Niña has been replaced by generally anomalously warm water. A recent map for the 5 days ending 15 June shows a large volume of warmer than normal sub-surface water extending across most of the equatorial Pacific. Small areas where anomalies exceed +2.0°C are evident on a weekly scale; otherwise, the sub-surface is generally about +1.0°C warmer than normal. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.

Trade winds have weakened significantly during the last fortnight, with a strong westerly wind burst observed over the western Pacific. Westerly wind anomalies are now evident across both the central and western equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly wind anomalies are shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 15 June.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply through the first three weeks of May and has fallen again in the last week. The latest (15 June) approximate 30 day value of the SOI is −10. The monthly value of the SOI for May was −5, while the monthly value for April was +9. (SOI graph, SOI table).

Cloudiness near the date-line over the central to western Pacific is another important indicator of warm/cool ENSO conditions, as it normally increases/decreases (negative OLR/positive OLR anomalies) during these episodes. Cloudiness near the dateline has increased recently, from below average to near-normal. Although cloudiness near the date-line has been increasing, it is yet to show a clear trend towards El Niño conditions.

All international dynamic computer models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology continue to predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface. Five of six models that have been initialised recently predict warming that is strong enough to see El Niño conditions established by the southern spring, and by mid-winter in four models. As models have been initialised from a period that is close to the end of the ¨predictability barrier" in ENSO conditions, combined with the general agreement between models of a warming of the tropical sea surface, the probability of the development of an El Niño event in 2009 is now much higher than one month ago and it is significantly higher than the climatological probability of about 20-25%. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady warming with El Niño conditions developing in July. Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any further indications of an event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[jinftl]

The 2004 el nino took effect in the July/August timeframe of that year....approximately around the time that may be the case this year. In fact, Dr. Gray lowered his forecast for the remainder of the 2004 season in early August. A week later Charley hit and thus began the parade of florida storms. May be the exception as opposed to the rule during el nino events.....but reminds us not to rule out a memorable and busy season. An el nino is not an on/off switch for tropical development....rather it may lead to some degree of atmospheric conditions that are hostile for development.

[tolakram]

I'm going to stand by what I said in another thread. I can see a mild el nino squashing the number of strong storms, but I can't see it reducing the overall number unless it's a really strong one. We need a year of blown forecasts for the scientists to look at this possibility, I suppose.

[KWT]

Its obvious to anyone who looks at the stats that El Nino do squash overall number of storms as well as the other factors as well.

2004 was different because it had a very high heat content which did make a big difference, something we most certainly don't have this season.

[Macrocane]

Apart from 2004 give me another example of a very active El Niño year... I think they are isolated cases and it's not the common. Take a look at 1997, 2002, 2006 those were El Niño years and we saw reduced overall numbers or weaker storms. I agree that we don't have to let down our guard during this season, but we don't have to expext another 2004 year either.
Just my two cents.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You don't need a computer model to tell were in or heading in an El Nino. Now the question is how strong. As fast as it came on. I'm saying moderate to possibly strong.