Possible Area to Watch - Eastern GOM Next Week

[gatorcane]

There just is very little to talk about as far as Atlantic development is concerned. The only area I think may warrant some attention for those weather enthusiasts out there is the Gulf of Mexico, particularly the Eastern GOM off the SW Coast of FL. Global model guidance is suggesting a trough enters this area early to mid next week and becomes stationary across Central/South FL and the GOM. Ample surface moisture is also present along the trough boundary as depicted by both the ECMWF and GFS.

With GOM SSTs now approaching the mid 80s off the coast of SW FL and the fact this area is climatologically favored for this time of year AND the fact the GFS is picking up on some kind of surface low feature in this area, off the SW Coast of FL may mean something may try to get going here.

Keep an eye on this area for a possible low or even an invest next week. At this time I do not expect a named system out of this area though.

GFS 12Z:

[Flyinman]

Sure would be nice if the Low moved a little closer to us. We even have trees wilting around my house. We need some rain soon!!!

[Category 5]

Wow, you KNOW its dead when this gets a thread.

[BigA]

That entire set-up is interesting. It seems to show a couple of lows forming along a stalled-out front off the east coast, and then shows the lows in the Atlantic moving (retrograding?) to the south, while another low forms at the tail end of the front in the western GOM.

[OpieStorm]

Well most anything that does form in June does come sloppy cold front leftovers, so it's possible.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS shows 3 Lows along this trough, albeit weak. This is 7 days from now:

[Sanibel]

Stationary high pressure. June storm killer:

[GeneratorPower]

Things change very quickly in the tropics, and with weather patterns in general. I'm sure there will be plenty of action soon.

[T-man]

A weak tropical disturbance would be welcome here in South LA. Getting abnormally dry in these parts.

[N2Storms]

While this AFD doesn't mention tropical developement next week it does indicate that the weather enviroment is going to change next week and that robust High Pressure is going to be retrograding wwd ....




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180857
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE EXTENDED FCST SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S PACKAGE...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HOT LEVEL UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARDS THE LA/TX REGION...BUT IT DOES NOW
APPEAR THAT THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE MAY LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE CWA...SO RAISED TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...IT STILL APPEARS A BIT TRICKY...AS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE IN DEEP LAYER N-NW FLOW ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND THIS COULD VERY WELL PUT OUR REGION IN
THE MCS CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD...AND THE
GFS IS NOW CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE EURO FROM MON THROUGH
WED...SO FCST CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
IT`S ALSO A BIT EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SEVERE WX PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME (ALTHOUGH IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE MCS CHANNEL HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG STORMS JUST TO OUR N AND NW OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS)...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE RECENTLY BEEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WHICH WILL AT LEAST FEEL LIKE SOME RELIEF DESPITE HIGHS STILL
AVERAGING ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS.

[LaBreeze]

PLEASE rain!!

[gone2beach]

Update from the New Orleans office:

DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE RIDGE IS SITTING RIGHT
ON TOP OF US AND EVEN CU HAS HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING. MRNG SNDG SHOWED H85 TEMP AROUND 20C AND THIS WOULD AT
LEAST TRANSLATE TO 95 DEGREES AROUND HERE AND I COULD EASILY SEE
TEMPS TOUCHING A FEW DEGREES ABV THAT THANKS TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE
CENTURY MARK TODAY BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER H85
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL DEFINITELY APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK BUT TODAY WE MAY STAY JUST BELOW 100. IF
MCB AND BTR HIT 100 THIS WEEK MARK THE FIRST TIME IN 11 YRS THAT MCB
HAS HIT THE CENTURY MARK IN THE MONTH OF JUNE(30TH 1998) AND 19 YRS
FOR BTR(19TH 1990). BTR HAS ONLY HIT 100 DEGREES OR GREATER 9 TIMES
[b]IN THE MONTH OF JUNE. CURRENTLY MSY IS NOT FRCSTED TO GET TO 100 BUT
IF IT DOES IT WILL BE FIRST TIME IN THE MONTH OF JUNE SINCE THE 30TH
OF..........1954!!! HEAT ADVISORY WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS. NO UPDATE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES. /CAB/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE SURFACE AND 1700 FEET ALONG WITH A
FEW SMALLER INVERSIONS ALOFT. MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM THE SURFACE UP
TO 1700 FEET...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH SINCE YESTERDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT THE SURFACE...SHIFTING SOUTH
THEN EAST IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. /AH/

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think it is an invest:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[floridasun78]

but this not system that gfs was showing unless it turn more ene or ne

[Stormcenter]

I love to have this same type of set up in August and September.

Stationary high pressure. June storm killer:

[Sanibel]

Could have showtime here folks. See what the visible shows in the morning.

[boca]

The cloud tops are already warming ,if this goes poof it wouldn't surprise me.

[Rainband]

The cloud tops are already warming ,if this goes poof it wouldn't surprise me.

not now they aren't

[cycloneye]

Is invest 93L.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions about this disturbance.Thread is locked.

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