Tropical / Sub-Tropical development off EC?

[cycloneye]

Some of the global models haved shown a low pressure forming off the East Coast of the U.S.almost a week back (See Long / Medium Models Thread) viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=0. Lets see if it really forms into a tropical or subtropical system.Or if is nothing more than a gale low.





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[BigA]

Well, south of North Carolina the shear is light, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html and the gulf stream waters are warm https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy/we ... 8/0-0-10/2 so I reckon there's something of a chance.

[cycloneye]

The surface analysis has a weak low off the SE coast.

[Steve H.]

Models have been toying with this area for a week. Not sure if it will cut off or head to the NE. A more interesting area IMHO is approaching the Central Atlantic. I know its early, but I wonder if this has a chance to develop as it heads wetward. We'll be close to july by the time it would get close to the US, ala Bertha.

[gatorcane]

Development chances are below 1% here and I do not expect any tropical or subtropical development.

Avg. development chances for this time of year run at 5%, so this is below the average.

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 65W...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY EWD TO A POSITION NEAR
32N74W THU MORNING...INCREASING SW FLOW OVER THE N WATERS FRI AND
SAT AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN. THE ATTENDANT TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO
28N77W THU MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA BY THU
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 26N WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI THROUGH SAT REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC
SUN.

[cpdaman]

Not to impressed here.....but i guess it is worth a look being near warm water....although it should be moving east into cooler water......and the 18Z gfs doesn't have it as a closed low for more than 12 more hours....


i am a bit "let down" with the NOAA "people" and their bouy's......what am i missing ......bouys constantly lose data transmission (i get that )......(but after the bouy is found/located) they constantly take their merry time "restoring bouy's when it can be worked into the schedule".......does it really take half a year to work it into the schedule (so far this one has only been 2.5 months since recovered). Do they not have the fund's? or the manpower?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

[cycloneye]

This pass was at 7:11 PM EDT and it shows a weak circulation.As I said at the first post,this may be nothing more than a gale low and I am the first to say no TC will form here,but you never know what the tropics can offer as we haved seen in the past.I only made this thread for the peeps to watch the Western Atlantic area and nothing more.

[cpdaman]

0Z gfs doesn't make much of this ....but there is still a low there

Nice big gale (990 mb) forecast late weekend off SNE as well

i do have some interest in the low for hope of something to surf (since it has been flat as a pancake)

do any other models show any potential with this thing

[TropicalWXMA]

Pete Bouchard over at WHDH-7 in Boston is also very interested in that gale center:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has this as a gale low.

[TropicalWXMA]

YIKES!!

12z GFS has this as a gale low.

[cycloneye]

Ahead in the timframe GFS has another low off the SE coast.

[wxman57]

YIKES!!

12z GFS has this as a gale low.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

That's just a cold-core low along a moderate cold front. The northeast U.S. can't seem to get any warm weather.

[brunota2003]

YIKES!!

12z GFS has this as a gale low.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

That's just a cold-core low along a moderate cold front. The northeast U.S. can't seem to get any warm weather.

Tell me about it.................................

[cycloneye]

TPC Marine forecast

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES
TO QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE E COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAXIMUM DIVING TOWARD THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE
AMPLIFYING IT OFF THE E COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE OFF
THE E COAST...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS ON MON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN ON MON...LEAVING BEHIND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC. ALL AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL VORT LOBES PIVOTING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE DEEP LOW N OF THE AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC EARLY MONDAY. DEEP
LAYER LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC BY MON AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH A DEEPER LOW...POTENTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO ANY REMNANT WEAK THERMAL GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. BY MON EVENING...THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NAM ALL
CARRY A SURFACE LOW IN THE 1000-1003 MB RANGE WITHIN 90 NM OF
29N73W ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A
SWATH OF SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS
WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED TO GALE FORCE IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LOW DUE TO THE STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT
WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION OF THE
CORRESPONDING CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A LARGE SUITE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GALES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER WIND SWATH ON TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
ENTIRELY REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH PROMOTING GREATER MIXING...ESPECIALLY WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 26-27 DEG CELSIUS
RANGE. THE THREAT FOR GALES WILL LIFT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
BY TUE EVENING...WHILE THE SWATH OF SW WINDS AT 20-30 KT
CONTINUES E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO THU.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[brunota2003]

And we do also have a thread on this gale low in USA Weather.

[Sanibel]

Unusual N-S Low center-entrained thunderstorms being pulled through New York. Acting like it is trying to get something going cold core or not.