EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

[KWT]

So the 2009 season will now go into 2nd spot as the latest starting season. Who knows whether we will go into 1st place, another 12hrs or so to do so.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:41:50 N Lon : 108:30:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1010.2mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.8 2.1 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -5.0C Cloud Region Temp : -26.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:17:24 N Lon: 108:18:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt01E.html

[Derek Ortt]

how are they getting the center there? That number is not worth much when they are off by 60NM!

[MGC]

Looks like a good candidate for first named system. Center location error shows the value of recon....MGC

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Indeed Derek its clear that the center is not that far north, I'd bet if they got the center correct then those numbers would be probably a fair bit higher.

Looking more and more like a tropical storm now!

[cycloneye]

Look where Dvorak has the center,way north of the main convection area.




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2009 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 18:52:07 N Lon : 108:30:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.3 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -29.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:27:35 N Lon: 108:18:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Yep clearly not got a good location of the center given the loops and the data suggests its a fair way south of that location. Have no doubt that would make the difference between 2.0 and 2.5.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

396
WTPZ31 KNHC 182031
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST OR ABOUT
360 MILES...575 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
260 MILES...420 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.3N 108.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG




714
WTPZ41 KNHC 182031
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...
JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 30 KT BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED A PATCH OF WIND RETRIEVALS NEAR 30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/06. THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK. THE HWRF AND DEEP-LAYER
BAM BOTH TAKE THE VORTEX UNREALISTICALLY FAR TO THE NORTH AFTER
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS
EITHER SHOW THE CYCLONE MAKING A SHARP SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST OR LOSE THE VORTEX ENTIRELY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MOVING INLAND BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED
AT 36 AND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT. WHILE THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM BEING A
TROPICAL STORM AT 24 HOURS AND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.3N 108.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 108.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 107.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 22.6N 107.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 24.1N 106.9W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[KWT]

So still a tropical depression at the moment though it has gotten stronger. Also the shear that the Ships have picked up needs to be watched because if it does increase it may expose the circulation again which is just on the northern edge of the systems convective outlay.

[HURAKAN]

[Cookie]

I hope it gets the record now

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUN 2009 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 18:25:46 N Lon : 108:11:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -58.4C Cloud Region Temp : -57.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

970
WTPZ31 KNHC 182349
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
500 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF NORTH...STILL NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES...545 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
225 MILES...360 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 107.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

[tailgater]

Sat. loops makes it look like it hauling butt to NE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops have warmed a lot, I hope that they get cold again cause I don't want to lose One-E

[cycloneye]

The cloud tops are warming a bit.If this trend continues,it will not be the first named storm of the 2009 EPAC season.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

No upgrade to Tropical Storm on the 00 UTC Best track.

EP, 01, 2009061900, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1078W, 30, 1005, TD

[Cyclone1]

Just tied the record, by date, officially.