SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[MGC]

It has been hot here on the coast but not close to record. The dew point has been down around 71 during the heat of the day making it somewhat bearable. I remember back in 2000 or 1999 when the dew point was 83 with a heat index of 135...that was hot. There is talk of a backdoor cold front Monday as the ridge retrogrades away from us. Looks like you folks over in Texas and SW La might be in for a lengthy dry spell......MGC

[southerngale]

Getting sick of this cockroach ridge! How do we get rid of this ridge?

Do you have to use that word?

[srainhoutx]

There is some hope in the offing as the Upper Ridge is progged to move northward just enough to setup a return to an easterly flow around the "ring of fire" about the middle of next week. HGX mentions this in morning AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ODDLY ENOUGH...SCANNING THE HGX 88D SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED ECHOES
COMING OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE ALONG
THE COAST WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. STREAMER SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STIFF ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. POPS ARE PROBABLY AROUND 10
PERCENT AT BEST.

OVERALL...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER S LA WILL EXPAND SOME OVER THE N GULF.
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE
THEN RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPANDS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. GFS IS STILL HINTING AT
THE RIDGE MOVING ENOUGH W AS TO ALLOW FOR LOWER HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AGAIN THIS IS IN THE 7-8
DAY RANGE SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS TO SORT OUT.

THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. THE TEMP FORECAST WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN
THE FORECAST THINKING. FORECAST WILL STILL BE DRY WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE. THE ONLY HOPE FOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE IF THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO GET AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WE WILL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

[HouTXmetro]

There is some hope in the offing as the Upper Ridge is progged to move northward just enough to setup a return to an easterly flow around the "ring of fire" about the middle of next week. HGX mentions this in morning AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ODDLY ENOUGH...SCANNING THE HGX 88D SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED ECHOES
COMING OFF THE GULF. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE ALONG
THE COAST WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. STREAMER SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STIFF ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. POPS ARE PROBABLY AROUND 10
PERCENT AT BEST.

OVERALL...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER S LA WILL EXPAND SOME OVER THE N GULF.
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE
THEN RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPANDS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. GFS IS STILL HINTING AT
THE RIDGE MOVING ENOUGH W AS TO ALLOW FOR LOWER HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AGAIN THIS IS IN THE 7-8
DAY RANGE SO PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS TO SORT OUT.

THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. THE TEMP FORECAST WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AS NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN
THE FORECAST THINKING. FORECAST WILL STILL BE DRY WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE. THE ONLY HOPE FOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE IF THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO GET AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WE WILL SEE IF THIS PANS OUT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

I'd rather stick with the current pattern then Hit and Miss scattered Thunderstorms that's going turn Houston into a steam room. Isolated showers for about 10-15 minutes and then the sun comes right back out and your dealing with awful Humidity Levels and later mosquitos. What we need is a bonafied rain system that is going to come and do some real work.

[srainhoutx]

I agree, but the mosquitos are already a problem in my neck of the woods. Although we are enjoying the evening breeze we seem to get nightly as we unwind by the pool.

[jasons2k]

The mosquitoes have been a problem for me as well, even with the lack of rain. Maybe not *quite* as bad as they were 3-4 weeks ago, but bad enough.

I've also noticed the breeze/wind. It's been an ususually windy late spring/early summer for us. The strange thing is that it is frequenely windy at night. I don't know why, really, but it's been very consistent and it reminds me more of West Texas, not Houston.

It's getting really dry now and we desperately need some rain. Up in The Woodlands area, any non-irrigated grass is quickly dying off and many baby tree plantings in new construction areas/along roadsides/etc. are starting to turn brown and shrivel-up.

I'll take anything I can get, even if it's just a hit-or-miss shower. Anything to reverse the cycle would help.

[Ptarmigan]

Do you have to use that word?

The high pressure ridge is annoying like a cockroach. When you think it is going away, it comes back like one.

[jasons2k]

Oh, one other thing, I haven't looked the last two days, but I know over the weekend and early this week I topped 100F at my house. Sunday (I think), I hit 102F.

[CajunMama]

It's been so hot those stupid junebugs aren't even coming out at night (not that i'm complaining)

[srainhoutx]

Interesting thing is that the GFS and now the ECMWF are "hinting" a wind shift next weekend. The Upper Ridge may move a bit W and allow a weak front into the area. Hmmm

[CajunMama]

The heat is draining our electrical grids i think. It got up to 97 today and since 6:45 my power has gone out 3 times.)

NWS predicted highs

Friday 95
Sat 94
Sun 96
Mon 95
Tues 98
Wed 97
Thurs 94 (woohoo a cold front!) lol

and no rain predicted until wed & thurs with a measly 20% chance forecasted.

[southerngale]

The heat is draining our electrical grids i think. It got up to 97 today and since 6:45 my power has gone out 3 times.)

NWS predicted highs

Friday 95
Sat 94
Sun 96
Mon 95
Tues 98
Wed 97
Thurs 94 (woohoo a cold front!) lol

and no rain predicted until wed & thurs with a measly 20% chance forecasted.

Thank you, Sweet Jesus. At least there's a chance. I'm ready for some rain and I look forward to that cold front next week!
I'm not saying it was the first time I should have, but I watered my outdoor growing things and part of the yard that looked thirsty for the first time yesterday evening. It's been over 2 weeks since we've gotten any rain.

[vbhoutex]

The heat is draining our electrical grids i think. It got up to 97 today and since 6:45 my power has gone out 3 times.)

NWS predicted highs

Friday 95
Sat 94
Sun 96
Mon 95
Tues 98
Wed 97
Thurs 94 (woohoo a cold front!) lol

and no rain predicted until wed & thurs with a measly 20% chance forecasted.

Thank you, Sweet Jesus. At least there's a chance. I'm ready for some rain and I look forward to that cold front next week!
I'm not saying it was the first time I should have, but I watered my outdoor growing things and part of the yard that looked thirsty for the first time yesterday evening. It's been over 2 weeks since we've gotten any rain.

I wish it had only been that long!! It has easily been over a month since we have had measurable rain. Basically, it hasn't rained here(at least not enough to do any good) since we flooded in April.

[CajunMama]

The heat is draining our electrical grids i think. It got up to 97 today and since 6:45 my power has gone out 3 times.)

NWS predicted highs

Friday 95
Sat 94
Sun 96
Mon 95
Tues 98
Wed 97
Thurs 94 (woohoo a cold front!) lol

and no rain predicted until wed & thurs with a measly 20% chance forecasted.

Thank you, Sweet Jesus. At least there's a chance. I'm ready for some rain and I look forward to that cold front next week!
I'm not saying it was the first time I should have, but I watered my outdoor growing things and part of the yard that looked thirsty for the first time yesterday evening. It's been over 2 weeks since we've gotten any rain.

You know that makes those cockroaches bigger and then they invade your house...so big you can keep them as pets and bejewel them or they can take you hostage for hours! Heck some are so large they're mistaken for helicopters!

[southerngale]

Oh, aren't you cute.

Btw, this little guy is enjoying the hot weather. He can easily survive in a USPS priority box with a few holes poked in the box.

[tailgater]

Nothing but a trace in my gauge in 32 days I've been watering for 3 weeks, my wife is goona be pissed when she sees the water bill(so what's new).
Great pics guys.

[srainhoutx]

Well guidance (mainly GFS) flip flopped again and now suggests no rain for the next 16 days. One thing I have learned through the years is that stubborn Upper Ridges have a tendency to keep builing and building over areas that have no moisture content left in the soil and green grasses/plants that dry up. It would be amazing to have to wait until fall to see a pattern change or a tropical system to end this drought.

[HouTXmetro]

Well guidance (mainly GFS) flip flopped again and now suggests no rain for the next 16 days. One thing I have learned through the years is that stubborn Upper Ridges have a tendency to keep builing and building over areas that have no moisture content left in the soil and green grasses/plants that dry up. It would be amazing to have to wait until fall to see a pattern change or a tropical system to end this drought.

There was a stubborn Ridge over Alabama last year. I think that's how Ike managed to make that improbable track deep into the West Gulf Coast.

[MGC]

All one has to do is study the summer of 1980. The atmosphere was blocked for months. It got hot, hot, hot....MHC

[baygirl_1]

All one has to do is study the summer of 1980. The atmosphere was blocked for months. It got hot, hot, hot....MHC

Yeah, the on camera meteorologists over here have been referencing 1980 during this oppressively hot week. We've got a heat advisory here now because it's supposed to be 100 here tomorrow! Of course, it was 99 today, so what's the diff?! I miss our afternoon rain storms-- I'd even take that nasty lightning! The rain may make steam but it cools things a bit so the A/C can perhaps take a little break. Here's to the ridge going someplace else!! (I know I may very well be wishing that ridge was here later in the summer if a storm comes up in the Gulf...)
Stay cool folks! Think