EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[HURAKAN]

894
WHXX01 KMIA 211222
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1222 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932009) 20090621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090621 1200 090622 0000 090622 1200 090623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 100.3W 15.0N 100.7W 15.6N 101.2W 16.3N 101.7W
BAMD 14.7N 100.3W 14.9N 101.0W 15.4N 101.8W 16.2N 102.6W
BAMM 14.7N 100.3W 15.1N 100.9W 15.6N 101.5W 16.4N 102.2W
LBAR 14.7N 100.3W 15.2N 101.3W 15.8N 102.6W 16.9N 104.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090623 1200 090624 1200 090625 1200 090626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 102.5W 18.7N 104.8W 19.0N 107.5W 19.5N 111.3W
BAMD 17.2N 103.9W 18.9N 107.5W 19.5N 112.1W 19.8N 117.4W
BAMM 17.3N 103.3W 19.0N 106.4W 19.3N 110.4W 19.5N 115.4W
LBAR 18.2N 106.0W 21.7N 109.7W 24.9N 112.7W 27.5N 114.2W
SHIP 56KTS 64KTS 59KTS 53KTS
DSHP 56KTS 64KTS 59KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 99.3W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 98.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Closeup visible pic shows improved organization today.I will not be surprised if its classified as a TD this afternoon or evening.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[HURAKAN]

There appears to be an elongated trough of low pressure, but not a well-defined LLC. It looks impressive, but just like 1E, it lacks the surface fiber.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

Wow... hard to imagine there's not much of an LLC under that. Looks fantastic.

[clfenwi]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...
BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak classifications for 93E

21/1145 UTC 14.7N 100.5W T2.0/2.0 93E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

The CMC (Canadian model) has a strong Tropical Storm.

[Macrocane]

Very strong convection but still not well defined low level circulation, In my opinion once the LLCC develops then it will rapidily intensify into a TD and then TS. By the way, it has been a nice, grey and rainy day here and El Salvador because of the proximity of the ITCZ thanks to 93-L.

[cycloneye]

TD is forming

59
ABPZ20 KNHC 211740
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING. ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

We will have the first advisory for TD 02E at 2 PM PDT

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932009_ep022009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906211822
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep022009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906211829
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 211830
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (EP022009) 20090621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090621 1800 090622 0600 090622 1800 090623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 101.3W 15.1N 101.5W 15.9N 101.7W 16.7N 102.2W
BAMD 14.6N 101.3W 14.8N 101.9W 15.4N 102.5W 16.3N 103.5W
BAMM 14.6N 101.3W 14.9N 101.7W 15.7N 102.0W 16.7N 102.6W
LBAR 14.6N 101.3W 15.1N 102.4W 15.8N 103.9W 16.9N 105.7W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090623 1800 090624 1800 090625 1800 090626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 103.2W 19.1N 105.6W 19.6N 108.2W 20.3N 111.8W
BAMD 17.4N 105.0W 19.0N 109.0W 19.9N 113.6W 20.2N 118.3W
BAMM 17.8N 103.8W 19.5N 107.2W 19.9N 111.2W 20.1N 115.9W
LBAR 18.3N 107.6W 22.0N 111.2W 25.7N 113.5W 28.3N 113.3W
SHIP 65KTS 58KTS 47KTS 40KTS
DSHP 65KTS 58KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 101.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 99.8W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 98.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Yep not at all surprising given the way it looks.

I'm fully expecting a decent system from this!

[brunota2003]

I say first intensity forecast goes conservative, TS in 24 hours (12 if you follow the SHPS/DSHPS solely, but) followed by strengthening to a 55 knot TS (though could be low).

[cycloneye]

If you like to track Cyclones,this is a neat formation.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak Classification

21/1745 UTC 14.6N 101.4W T2.5/2.5 93E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 212030
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
2100 UTC SUN JUN 21 2009

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

284
WTPZ32 KNHC 212030
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON HAS FORMED.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 101.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

WTPZ42 KNHC 212031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

SPIRAL BANDING HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS
TO HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.0 AND
2.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THIS INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP REPORTS
IN THE AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
PROJECTS THAT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HWRF MODEL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL IN STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE. CURIOUSLY...
THIS IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL RUNS FROM 12
HOURS EARLIER. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND DOES NOT BRING THE CYCLONE
TO HURRICANE STATUS. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 ONCE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER COOLER WATERS.

NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY
WELL...AND THIS IS LIKELY AFFECTING THEIR RESPECTIVE FORECAST
TRACKS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD.
THE GFDL SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...BUT THIS ALSO DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S
CURRENT MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK RELIES ON
EXTRAPOLATION AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN
COMES MORE IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND
UKMET. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER MEXICO AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD
COURSE AWAY FROM LAND.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO THE
HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 14.7N 101.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.8N 102.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 102.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 103.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH