996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#1 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:07 pm

GFS Day 3 - 66 hours out:

Image

Buoy 44018 30 miles east of Cape Cod:

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

#2 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:09 pm

Buoy 44011 170 miles east of Hyannis, MA.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

#3 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:11 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#4 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:21 pm

Current Marine Advisories/Statements:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...SEVERAL SPLASH-OVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON
SUNDAY. THIS ANOMOLOUS COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS SITUATED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A LONG
DURATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY BUILDING WAVES OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.

THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES MAY COMBINE WITH THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE MONTH TO PRODUCE SPLASH-OVER
DURING SOME OF OUR HIGH TIDES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...STORM TIDES A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT IN MAGNITUDE WILL PRODUCE
STORM TIDES NEAR OR ABOVE THE 12 FOOT FLOOD BENCHMARK IN PORTLAND
HARBOR. THIS WOULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. EAST
OR NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES ALONG COASTAL CUMBERLAND...YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SPLASH-OVER OR
COASTAL FLOODING.

ALSO...THE MOST VULNERABLE STORM TIDE APPEARS TO BE THE 1026 PM
SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE WHEN SPLASH-OVER AND BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE. OTHER STORM TIDES TO WATCH FOR BOTH SPLASH-OVER AND
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE 1120 PM MONDAY NIGHT AND 1215 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE TIDES MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE MAY...2005
COASTAL EVENTS.

SPLASH-OVER IS DEFINED AS BEACH EROSION OR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DUE TO
THE COMBINED PRESENCE OF BUILDING WAVES AND STORM TIDES ALONG
BEACH PROPERTIES. COASTAL INUNDATION IS THE SUBMERSION OF WATER
AROUND LOW LEVEL PROPERTIES AND ESTUARIES DUE TO HIGH WATER
LEVELS.


Also, Gale Warning up from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for coastal waters from the Merrimack River, MA to Watch Hill, RI out to 25 NM.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#5 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:05 pm

Latest AFD from KBOX is pretty much exclusively about the gale low:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=AFD




if other people want to chime in, please by all means feel free too!
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#6 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:14 pm

Starting to get it's act together:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

#7 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:19 am

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

Main LLC is still over SE NY. Some offshore convective flaring taking place away from the center.


More in the morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#8 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:07 am

For those who do not know (I had to look it up myself), 29.50" is also 999 millibars. (Reference buoy charts above)
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#9 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:50 am

Late season nor'easter?
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#10 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:55 am

29.41" is 996 millibars!
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#11 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:19 pm

this thing is starting to BOMB!

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

BTW, coastal flood statement extended south into eastern mass.
0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#12 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 2:25 pm

29.38 is 995 millibars

29.35 is 994 millibars

The buoy thus far has reached 29.38, so it is one millibar stronger (thus far) than predicted.
0 likes   

User avatar
Persepone
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:32 pm
Location: Cape Cod, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#13 Postby Persepone » Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:38 pm

29.38 at 6:25 p.m. in Marstons Mills, MA
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#14 Postby cpdaman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 6:29 pm

not sure if this is a double barrell system (lined up N-S) or just elongated ......pretty sure the lower part or (low pressure east of delmarva) is getting into the gulf stream waters ......which begins around 37.5 or so ....

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

good chart from navy site as of 6-19
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy/we ... index.html
0 likes   

User avatar
DanKellFla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1291
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
Location: Lake Worth, Florida

#15 Postby DanKellFla » Sun Jun 21, 2009 6:43 pm

Is this system going to cause some crazy weather in South Florida on Monday?
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#16 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:19 pm

Buoy #44011 at 41.111N 66.58W (170 NM East of Hyannis, MA) is registering an atmospheric pressure reading at 29.35 inches, which converts to 993 Millibars.

By the way, the outflow from this storm is reaching just south of Cuba and is causing a few diurnal thunderstorms over Cuba.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#17 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:28 pm

CMC:
Image

GFS (Note heavy QPF over eastern/coastal Mass.):
Image

Gale, Coastal Flood, and High Surf Advisories/Warnings up all along the coasts of Mass., NH, and ME.

Expecting 15 foot waves to arrive in the outer coastal waters by Monday morning.
Last edited by TropicalWXMA on Sun Jun 21, 2009 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: 996MB Gale Center to bomb off Eastern Seaboard

#18 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:33 pm

Also a LOT of upwelling is forecasted with this storm, which will ironically help weaken it by Tuesday as it exits into the Canadian Maritimes.

Keep an eye on the Gulf Stream SST maps and you'll start to see the cooler waters under the storm showing!
Last edited by TropicalWXMA on Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:40 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalWXMA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed May 18, 2005 9:22 pm
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

#20 Postby TropicalWXMA » Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:45 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: txtwister78, wxman22 and 77 guests