Weak trough from BOC to the Gulf of Tehauntepec

[BigA]

Wow 30% is somewhat bullish?

I think that they just say less than 30% as a standard for all code yellows, 30 to 50 for all oranges, and greater than 50 for all code reds.

[PTrackerLA]

Well look at this interesting development. If only it could come to the northern gulf coast where we desperately need relief from the heat and drought. Looks like it's already got some spin and decent convection...

[Flyinman]

Don't shoot me as I am still learning..But any chance with the High moving out over the next couple of days, it may pull the system more north towards the upper Texas Coast? Sure would be nice.

[massweathernet]

I'd say this is worthy of attention!

[BigA]

Don't shoot me as I am still learning..But any chance with the High moving out over the next couple of days, it may pull the system more north towards the upper Texas Coast? Sure would be nice.

You are correct in the idea that if the high moved out the BOC disturbance would likely move north. However, the disturbance is likely to be over land before the high moves significantly.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B just posted on the BOC disturbance. He thinks its moving NNW and may wrap up quickly on its way to NE Mexico. He believes S TX will only get some rain and gusty winds but thats it. We shall see.

[tailgater]

Don't shoot me as I am still learning..But any chance with the High moving out over the next couple of days, it may pull the system more north towards the upper Texas Coast? Sure would be nice.

As the high builds west it should push this trough westward if it's still there. I don't see how it could it make to the border even. but there's always a chance in the tropics. IMHO.

[Flyinman]

Thanks for the info and I agree about you never know in the Tropics. Tailgater, nice Tiger picture..I have that exact Tiger face tattooed on my arm!

[HURAKAN]

Invest:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[HURAKAN]

22/1745 UTC 21.1N 95.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

[lrak]

Does SW wind count as West... ?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[tailgater]

WNW winds here. A little south of Tampico.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMPA.html
And Tampico has NNW winds

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

There is clearly visible what appears to be at least a MLC.

[brunota2003]

Does SW wind count as West... ?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Nope, need all 360 degrees.

[tailgater]

Looking this sat loop and reporting sta. near this I think the low? is just eat of Tampico moving WNW fairly quickly.
Check out the loop at this site.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[srainhoutx]

Corpus Christi chimes in this afternoon...snipet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
319 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN FCST
CONCERN WL BE THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ANITCYLONIC
OUTFLOW ALOFT WAS ALSO NOTED ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES A DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL TUE EVENING
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE. WL LEAN TWDS THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLNS SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE BRUNT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WL TRACK ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH
TX ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. OUR CWA WL REMAIN ON THE NRN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAIN CORE TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
NRN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. PREFER THE GFS
MOS POPS WHICH CARRY LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SRN PORTION
OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. THE NRN AREAS WL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE RDG AXIS ALOFT WL HAVE MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NRN AREA
WL REMAIN WELL ABV NORMAL AS A RESULT OF THIS RDG AXIS ALOFT AND
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE WL BE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT AS INCREASED CLOUD CVR AND PCPN CHCS WL "COOL" OFF
TEMPS BY SVRL DEGS FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SVRL
DAYS.

[Comanche]

Jeff Lindner emialed this out a little while ago-

"Also rapid organization of tropical system in Bay of Campeche today moving NW to NE Mexico. Systems bears some watch, more later if needed as we will see what the next 6-12 hours brings from the surface and satellite data. "

[wxman57]

Don't shoot me as I am still learning..But any chance with the High moving out over the next couple of days, it may pull the system more north towards the upper Texas Coast? Sure would be nice.

Just the opposite, the high is forecast to build over the western Gulf Coast over the next 3-4 days, pushing anything in the BoC right into Mexico in the not-too-distant future. Satellite loops would indicate that the storms will be inland within the next 12-18 hours.

[HouTXmetro]

Something to watch in these parts for the first time this season. Too bad it will not last long and provide any type of relief.

[Derek Ortt]

don't think this will do too much. These types of systems usually take some time. With the movement into Mexico, I do not see more than a TD out of this... and even that may be stretching it