WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZJUN2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 01
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 129.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 26.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 128.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 04W HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD AT 221200Z. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON
EASTERN LUZON AS A WEAK TYPHOON NEAR TAU 48 AND TO RE-INTENSIFY IN
THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 220951ZJUN09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 221000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (LINFA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
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