Caribbean - Central America Weather

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National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 

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Flood Advisory

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST TUE JUN 16 2009

VIC030-162100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0167.090616T1903Z-090616T2100Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT THOMAS VI-
303 PM AST TUE JUN 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
  FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

  IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 302 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ISLAND OF ST THOMAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6494 1829 6505 1835 6511 1841 6501
      1836 6488 1828 6484

$$

EM

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED JUN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BEFORE LIFTING FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR LOW
LYING FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
TODAY TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AS TUESDAY WAS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TUTT WILL BE FURTHER WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT WILL STILL LEAVE FA IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW FOR DECENT VENTILATION AND WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...IN PARTICULAR ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...IT STILL APPEARS THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WEST AND NORTH BEGINNING BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.


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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180820
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TUTT LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...MEANWHILE MID-LVL HIGH OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND
AND RESULT IN DRIER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE CIRRUS YDAY KEPT ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT STABLE
FROM OTHERWISE STRONG INSOLATION BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN YDAY.

MAIN WX FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE BUILDING MID-LVL
RIDGE FROM THE TROP ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW MID-LVL CAP STREGHTENING OVER PR AND THE USVI
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHRA/TSRA CVRG OVR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...INTENSE HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CNVRG SHOULD
STILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY OVR WRN
PR. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GFES SHOWS PR UNDER A HIGHLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND TUTT LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EVEN LESS
CONVECTIVE CVRG.

OVERALL...AFTER TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WITH
POPS/WX REMAINING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. OVR THE TROP ATLC...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STRONG OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
PROHIBITIVE OF TC FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WEST AND NORTH BEGINNING BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


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complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190838
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS... A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. MID LVL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL BUILD WWD AND MAINTAIN STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE AT UPPER LVLS TROUGH
AXIS TO THE WEST WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS. NEXT WEEK...AN AMPLIFLYING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OVR PR/USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW MID-LVL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ROUGHLY
AROUND 17N AND 58.5W BUILDING WWD OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING MANTAINING A GRIP OVR
PR/USVI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID-LVL CAP
STRENGHTENING OVR PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSRA
CVRG IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IN PAST DAYS WITH WRN PR
THE MOST FVRBL PLACE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO LATITUDE 20N HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...MODELS SHOW AN AMPLYFING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE
OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WITH AXIS FCST TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL DEFINITELY PUT A STRONG A CAP OVR THE AREA
LIMITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN MORE. HOTTER DRIER CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT JBQ/JMZ WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

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FXCA62 TJSJ 200838 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST SAT JUN 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID-LVL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
GRIP OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL HIGH
THEN TO REBUILD AND SHIFT WWD EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A MORE
SERLY WIND FLOW ALONG WITH HOTTER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
AND SURROUDING WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL WANE LATER THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON EAST SIDE OF WANING UPPER
LVL TROF N OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLD CVR OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO A STRENGHTENING MID LVL CAP
SHOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH CVRG LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
YDAY.

SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS INDICATED FOR FATHERS DAY IN
THE MORNING SO SCT SHRAS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY IN THE DAY.
DEEPENING MID-UPPER LVL TROF OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME EROSION OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE CAP OVR THE
ERN CARIBBEAN AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND SHIFT WWD MON-TUE
LEADING TO A MORE SERLY WIND FLOW. THIS TO RESULT IN HOTTER AND
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE CAP STREGHTENS. IN FACT...GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LVLS BECOMING QUITE DRY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE DURING SAHARAN DUST EVENTS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH THEN EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER WEST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE
AXIS FCST TO EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA NORTH THROUGH HISPANIOLA INTO
THE W CNTRL ATLC WITH A TUTT OVR THE CNTRL TROP ATLC PUTTING PR/USVI
UNDER A STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FURTHER LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN SUMMARY...HAZY...HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE
SHOWER AND/OR TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SAHARAN DUST TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL REACH
PARTS OF THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS... CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORES OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ENROUTE TO...AND
AROUND...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH ONE OR TWO TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ BTWN 18Z-22Z.


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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SUN JUN 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS AREA LIES BETWEEN A DEEP TROF OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND AMPLIFLYING RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY HOT WEEK APPEARS ON TAP AS WINDS VEER
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP TROF
OVR THE WRN ATLC. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AN AMPLIFLYING MID-
UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE W CNTRL ATLC WILL TAKE FULL CONTROL OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN STRENGHTENING OF THE MID-LVL CAP/SUBSIDENCE
FURTHER LIMITING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS VALID FOR
TUE INDICATE MID-LVLS DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RH VALUES IN
THE 15-20% WITH PROFILES LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN DURING
SAHARAN DUST EVENTS. LATEST SAL ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS WEB SITE
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROP ATLC SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME HAZE/DUST THIS WEEK AND A
DETERIORATION OF THE AIR QUALITY.

RIDGE AXIS FCST TO SHIFT WWD LATER IN THE WEEK WITH AREA BECOMING
UNDER A STRONGLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN MID-UPPER LVL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND TUTT TO THE EAST. ANOTHER SAHARAN
DUST EVENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS LARGE PLUME OF
THICK DUST TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS PER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODIS PICS FROM YDAY IS CARRIED BY AEJ OF 30-35 KT AS
FCST BY GFS MODEL. ALL OF THESE FACTORS LIKELY TO FURTHER SUPPRESS
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. OVERALL...A HOT WEEK WITH
LIMITED SHRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING -SHRA OVER TIST AND TISX MAY AFFECT THESE TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND AT LEAST VCTS OVER TJBQ BY 19Z
WITH MVFR CIGS.



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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220809 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST MON JUN 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL TROFFINESS SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA EXTENDS EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW BAHAMAS ON TUE THEN DISSIPATE ON WED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PRODUCING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54/55 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST AND ENTER ACROSS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY PASS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE WNW WHILE INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. LOW LEVEL TROFFINESS SUPPORTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING
NORTHERN FLORIDA (MAINLY THE NORTHERN EAST COAST) AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE FOR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN...SURFACE LOW FORMS EAST OF NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE
TONIGHT...INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT WARM
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FOR BOTH OF THESE
DAYS.

AS OF 0630Z...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING WEST NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEN...THIS MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS.

ONCE SUNSET ARRIVES...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE...LEADING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...EXPECT A GROUP OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.
AFTERWARD...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION THE TYPICAL WET AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE ABOVE
MENTIONED...WILL PASS SOUTH THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SHORT LIVED WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BEHIND THE WAVE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER WHILE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...RESULTING IN BREEZE
CONDITIONS. ALSO DUST FROM THE SAHARA DESERT...EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A DENSE AREA OF DUST DEPARTED THE WESTERN
AFRICA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG AEJ WILL BRING
THESE PARTICLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT JBQ AND JMZ BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR AT ALL OTHER SITES WITH A PREDOMINANT SE WIND
UP TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SEAS TO INCREASE A BIT AS BOTH WIND SURGES FROM TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE AND PRESSURE TIGHTENING LATER IN THE WEEK.


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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230708
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 AM AST TUE JUN 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WEAKENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LOW NEAR 24N 49W IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 96 HRS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING WARM TO HOT AFTERNOONS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN COASTAL LOCALITIES OF PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W AS OF 200 AM AST...TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME EXPECTED TO PUSH NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRING CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

NWS DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTERWARD...WEATHER SHOULD
BE PLEASANT FOR MUCH OF DAY FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS SHOULD BE THE
RULE OF THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR TWO THIRD OF THE
ISLAND WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.

ITCZ MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY...TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL DURING THE
TIME PERIOD THAT THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
PUSHES WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SAHARAN DUST WILL BE ARRIVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TRANSLATE TO DRY WEATHER
DAYS...WARM TO HOT TEMPS AND HAZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF A TSRA
AT JBQ BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION. SOME HAZE AND/OR FINE DUST POSSIBLE
AND COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 5 OR 6SM THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.


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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240952 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED JUN 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND AN OVERALL DRY AND SUBSIDENT
LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN NOW
NEAR 64 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE NOW MOVING ACROSS VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ALSO AFFECTING
PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...SURROUNDING WATERS AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS IN SOME AREA AREAS BUT NO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL GIVE WAY TO
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER HOT AND
FAIRLY DRY...AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND DOMINATE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN.

FOR THE LONG TERM...EVERY TWO TO THREE DAYS OR SO EXPECT WEAK
EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
SOME OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL AID IN LIMITED EARLY
MORNING AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. PREVIOUS
DAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY...SAL AND AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS PRODUCTS...AS
WELL AS QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGESTED AREAS OF HAZE/DUST AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND SURGE TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND NOW OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT
THIS TO AFFECT LOCAL AREA AND BRING HAZY CONDITIONS DURING
LATTER PART OF WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES IN SIGHT OR IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT LOCAL AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT MONTH...
WHEN THE LONG TERM GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND APPROACH THE REGION. THIS
HOWEVER IS A LONG WAYS OFF...AND DUE TO THE LONG TERM INCONSISTENCIES
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS WITH
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX
AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 24/14Z. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AFTER 24/15Z...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 24/18Z AND
LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL 25/00Z. LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STILL LIGHT FROM 10-25K FEET...AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY.


[Ed Mahmoud]

FOR NOW...NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES IN SIGHT OR IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT LOCAL AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT MONTH...
WHEN THE LONG TERM GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND APPROACH THE REGION.

12Z, 0Z and 6Z GFS show a tropical cyclone, actually. "Active" is putting it mildly.


I want to visit Puerto Rico. My wife speaks Spanish, we could probably travel away from the touristy areas, and I'd like to do the rum distillery tours.

My parents honeymooned in Puerto Rico. The Conquistadore hotel, IIRC...

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU JUN 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION AND EXTENDS NORTHWARDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED FAIRLY
DRY MID TO UPPER CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW QUICK PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRUSHING
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION...AS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST
CROSSES THE ISLAND CHAIN OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES WERE NOTED
AS A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL DRY CONDITION AND FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. LOCAL
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL HOWEVER LEAD
TO BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...OVERALL HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
THIS STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES TO CAUSE HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... FEW PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 25/1800Z ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ.
A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FLYING HAZARD ARE EXPECTED. TJSJ 25/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.



[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI JUN 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH NEAR 63 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE LOCAL REGION. SMALL FRAGMENTS OF ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE WAVE WILL HOWEVER MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND BRUSH THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS
OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE DOMINANT ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...
AND GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DOMINANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
THE PRESENCE OF SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAKE FOR HAZY CONDITIONS AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING...LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ALONG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
IN SOME AREAS...MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOME AREAS
AND ONE OR TWO PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT
DURATION WITH ONLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS ISOLATED
SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
ACTIVITY IF ANY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOSTLY
HOT AND HAZY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOUR. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 26/1800Z
THROUGH 26/2000Z ACROSS TJMZ AS SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS DEVELOP EAST
OF AIRPORT AND THEN MOVE NW OVER THE SITE.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AND ENROUTE BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FLYING HAZARD ARE EXPECTED. AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FT FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270849
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT JUN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PRODUCING A SUBSIDENCE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 OR LESS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF THE UPCOMING MONTH.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...TUTT...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ANY INFLUENCE OVER THE
LOCAL REGION. LATEST OPTICAL THICKNESS CHARTS INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER...SAL...EXTENDING JUST FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDREDS MILES.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND AT THE SAME TIME
LOWERING THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.
BOTH...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY THE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH VERY
LIMITED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING DEPICTED A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FA...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SAL ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER...MORE HEALTHY...TROPICAL
WAVE WAS ALONG 40 WEST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MOVING OVER OR
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF TNCM...TKPK...TISX...AND TIST. SAHARAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PRODUCING HAZY
CONDITIONS AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 5-6 MILES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AND ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO. BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...THEN LATER DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT FLYING
HAZARD ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280831
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST SUN JUN 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT
VALUES OF 1.7 OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH AND AT LEAST FOR THE
FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE UPCOMING MONTH OF JULY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...TUTT...JUST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH ANY INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL REGION. LATEST OPTICAL
THICKNESS CHARTS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...SAL...EXTENDING JUST FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDREDS
MILES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND AT THE
SAME TIME LOWERING THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. BOTH...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS...SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF
THE MONTH...PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY THE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL INDUCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RESTRICTED TO THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 42 WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSING MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE FOUR OF JULY HOLIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A FEW PASSING -SHRA MOVING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. SAHARAN DUST WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA...PRODUCING HAZY CONDITIONS AND BRIEFLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 5-6 MILES AT SOME OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AND
ACROSS MOUNTAIN AREAS IN PUERTO RICO. BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THEN LATER DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA.



[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice inverted V, little in the way of shower activity. This was last week's GFS Lesser Antilles TC, I believe. The earlier GFS runs may not have been completely accurate.





Nice blob East of Florida, I don't think that would effect the Greater Antilles, except maybe Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST MON JUN 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WORK WEEK...MAINTAINING A
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR 45 WEST
LONGITUDE...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HAZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SAL...WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A SECOND ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
BIT. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOCAL WINDS...AND WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...MAINLY A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WHICH WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THIS WAVE
VERY WELL WITH HIGH PW VALUES. IN OTHER NOTE...SAL WILL DIMINISH
TODAY AND TOMORROW AND WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...KEEPING HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS AT MID TO HIGH LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. SOME -SHRA WILL BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
MAINLY BETWEEN 07Z-12Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND ENROUTE BETWEEN THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DURING THE DAY... MAINLY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...EXPECT SCT-
ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TSTM OVR
AND IN VCNTY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE ALL OTHER ISLANDS AND TAF SITES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WORK WEEK...MAINTAINING A
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR 50 WEST
LONGITUDE...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. HAZY
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SAL...WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
TOMORROW. A SECOND ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
BIT. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOCAL WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 50 WEST LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THIS WAVE VERY
WELL WITH HIGH PW VALUES. ALSO...THE SJU-GFS TIME HEIGHT SERIES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE BETWEEN FRIDAY AT 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IT WILL EXTEND EVEN AT
UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...WE EXPECTED FRIDAY TO
BE THE WETTEST DAY FOR THE LOCAL AREA. SAL WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
BRINGING ONCE AGAIN HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
COMPUTER MODELS AS WELL AS GFS COMPUTER MODEL PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE SUNDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 1.35 INCHES. HOWEVER...EXPECT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EVERY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THE
NEXT 24. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT
MID TO HIGH LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CREATE
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THERE UNTIL AROUND 30/14Z...WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
TNCM. OTHERWISE CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR. AFT 30/16Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO BRINGING MVFR
AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. BOTH TJMZ AND TJBQ HAVE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED AT TJMZ. WINDS ARE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 18 KNOTS UP THROUGH 15 THOUSAND FEET AND WESTERLY
ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET. SOME HAZE DUE TO DUST WILL BE PRESENT AND
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 336 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN CAROLINA...NORTHERN SAN JUAN...LOIZA...AND ALONG THE
COASTLINE NEAR PUNTA LAS MARIAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...CAUSING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
TO FLOOD. TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED STALLED VEHICLES ACROSS THE
BALDORIOTY. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6609 1845 6597 1840 6600 1842 6606

$$

JPC

[WeatherLovingDoc]

I'm going to just follow along with this informative weather thread since St. Kitt's is just to the east (I don't really know by how many miles). DH reports he has settled in well there for the summer.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

FXCA62 TJSJ 010929
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BY SATURDAY. AFTER A MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES WEST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC A LOW WILL CUT OFF ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AGUADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE AS CLOSE AS 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN BY THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAVE A
TRAILING RIDGE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND REMAINS INTO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE
ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR AND
MORE AFRICAN DUST. THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
MAY NOT AFFECT THE AREA VERY MUCH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH AN APEX NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST AS OF 01/09Z. A DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT
TIMING IS SUCH THAT IT SHOULD ONLY CAUSE EARLY TERMINATION OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THEREFORE HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A LITTLE IN
FAVORED AREAS...NAMELY NORTHERN ZONE 9 AND ALL OF ZONE 8. SOME
STRAY CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM IN STREAMER ENHANCED LINES OFF OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA OF SAN JUAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE AND THE GFS AND NAM MODELS KEEP LOWER 90S FOR THE SAN
JUAN AIRPORT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A
DEGREE TO THE FORECAST AND TWO TO TOMORROWS FORECAST IN THE DRYER
AIR.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW. IT ALSO HAS DUST FOLLOWING IT...BUT MUCH MORE DUST IS
POURING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW LATER. WAVES ARE MOVING ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE PER
DAY AND SO THE DUST FOLLOWING THIS WAVE IS STILL A LITTLE LESS
THAN SIX DAYS OUT...BUT AT 700 MB GFS MODEL HAS SPEEDS IN THE JET
NEAR 10 DEGREES N LONGITUDE NEAR 50 KNOTS AT TIMES...AND THIS
COULD BRING SOME OF THAT DUST IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THEREFORE
HAVE CARRIED DUST FROM THURSDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND
EXTENDED HAZY SKIES THROUGH DAY EIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE MOST DENSE
DUST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AFTER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER ENTERS A
DRYER PHASE...IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD...AND POPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
BETWEEN 17Z-22Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ACROSS TJSJ
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EL YUNQUE AREA. LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EASTERLY UP THROUGH 15 THOUSAND FEET AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 THOUSAND
FEET AND CUMULONIMBUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST
WITH THE HIGHER LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE GFS BRINGS MUCH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS IS
YIELDING AS MUCH AS 39 KNOTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 850 MB WHICH
IT TRANSLATES INTO AS MUCH AS 27 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF GENERALLY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW-END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND BEYOND SUNDAY...HAVE LIMITED ADVISORIES TO
DAYS TWO AND THREE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
SEAS REACHING 7 FEET IN SOME AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND PASSAGES
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.