ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[wxman57]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly Update

El nino is on its way according to the latest update from CPC.

Read the update at hyperlink below.

Climate Prediction Center Weekly update

Update of all four El Nino regions:

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4= +0.6ºC
Niño 3.4= +0.7ºC
Niño 3= +0.8ºC
Niño1+2= +0.9ºC

Compare those current values above with the predicted values from last month. Current values are higher than any model (in the image below) was predicting.



However, the values are in line with NCEP's ensemble predictions:

[Derek Ortt]

maybe we'll get a nice and strong el nino and have a very quiet Atlantic for a change

[Ed Mahmoud]

maybe we'll get a nice and strong el nino and have a very quiet Atlantic for a change

1997 without the 4 June/July systems.


I know everyone would like some systems to track, but if we beat the 1983 record, 3 of fewer storms, we'd all be part of a record.

Like the time I saw Nolan Ryan at the old Arlington ballpark carry a no-hitter into the 7th. OK, he didn't get it, but if he had, even though I didn't throw the no-hitter, I'd be part of the history.

Between the December 10th snow miracle, and Andres being the latest East Pac "A" storm of the modern satellite era, it has been an impressive year already. Except December 10th was last year.


But anyway, if one views a super quiet, 2 or 3 storm season, as the equivalent of a 2 hit pitching duel and defensive gem, one can learn to appreciate a nice ENSO, especially one in an otherwise active cycle, like a no hitter in the era of steroided players, a lowered pitchers mound and a juiced ball.

[wxman57]

maybe we'll get a nice and strong el nino and have a very quiet Atlantic for a change

That's what I'm hoping for - nothing to track through maybe mid August, then just a few in Aug/Sep before the season shuts down. My main concern is that I have 10/5/2 in the office hurricane pool, but that's only SECOND lowest. Our receptionist picked only 9 named storms. So 9 or less and she wins the $100, regardless of the number of hurricanes or majors.

[cycloneye]

Imagine if only a handfull form,how the forum will be with many season cancel,boring,dead etc ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Imagine if only a handfull form,how the forum will be with many season cancel,boring,dead etc ?

And I'll keep using the pitcher's duel analogy, along with JB's hints of an upcoming winter to remember, to keep the team's morale up.

[Bailey1777]

Ed off topic but what did JB say about upcoming winter?

[gboudx]

How does Nino affect Atlantic storms that do form? I know it usually means less activity, but what about what does form? Are they generally less intense? Any influence on track?

[Macrocane]

How does Nino affect Atlantic storms that do form? I know it usually means less activity, but what about what does form? Are they generally less intense? Any influence on track?

Usually during El Niño years Atlantic storms are weaker, it doesn't mean that strong storms can't form but they are less compared to La Niña or Neutral years. For example 2006 had only 2 major hurricanes and they were cat 3, 2002 had only 2 major as well one cat 3 and one cat 4.

El Niño also have an influence on tracks, the systems tend to recurve to the open Atlantic and stay away from land.

There are always exceptions, Andrew was a cat 5 affected land and existed during an El Niño year, Isidore and Lili (2002) both affected landmasses.

[wxman57]

And there was 1965, an El Nino year with only 6 named storms but Cat 4 Betsy flooded New Orleans.

[KWT]

Don't forget Anita, Audery, Alicia, Camille or the whole host of hurricanes in 2004 either!

Its true that with an El Nino, esp above +1.3C you tend to see a sharp reduction in all tropical activity in the Atlantic but only need one or two to stray into a slightly more favorable region and things can still go bang.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed off topic but what did JB say about upcoming winter?

Nothing to specific yet, but an early, cold and stormy winter...

[Bailey1777]

If you compared the numbers as they stand right now what would be an analog year. Also have there been el nino's that just really had no effect on the season?

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index Data

Today the 24th of June,the SOI index is up,at +12.44.

18-Jun-2009 -20.46
19-Jun-2009 -23.76
20-Jun-2009 -19.61
21-Jun-2009 -11.18
22-Jun-2009 + 6.61
23-Jun-2009 + 11.04
24-Jun-2009 + 12.44

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

30 Day SOI Index Data



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[xironman]

The .02 anomalies are just about ready to leave the picture

[cycloneye]

It looks like in 2010,neutral ENSO will return.Also you can see a little downward direction in August / September timeframe at the CFS model data.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /cfs_fcst/

[wxman57]

It looks like in 2010,neutral ENSO will return.Also you can see a little downward direction in August / September timeframe at the CFS model data.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... SSTMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /cfs_fcst/

Already giving up on 2009, cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

Already giving up on 2009, cycloneye?

There is no question according to the daily data,some form of El nino will be out there.When I say some form is about how strong it will be.I am leaning weak to moderate.

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index Data

It has risen in the past 5 days and its positive at +25.02 today.

19-Jun-2009 -23.76
20-Jun-2009 -19.61
21-Jun-2009 -11.18
22-Jun-2009 + 6.61
23-Jun-2009 + 11.04
24-Jun-2009 + 12.44
25-Jun-2009 + 20.53
26-Jun-2009 + 25.02

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Index Data

Continues to climb.

18-Jun-2009 -20.46
19-Jun-2009 -23.76
20-Jun-2009 -19.61
21-Jun-2009 -11.18
22-Jun-2009 + 6.61
23-Jun-2009 + 11.04
24-Jun-2009 + 12.44
25-Jun-2009 + 20.53
26-Jun-2009 + 25.02
27-Jun-2009 + 31.28

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/