Joe B Targeting WGOM June 10-30

[vbhoutex]

WGOM in June? I'm predicting severe weather this spring and summer, in central Kansas. now, where's all my money for my prediction?

Same place mine is. In JB's hands since he is a certified professional meteorologist and Accuweather is willing to pay him mega-bucks.

[brunota2003]

WGOM in June? I'm predicting severe weather this spring and summer, in central Kansas. now, where's all my money for my prediction?

Same place mine is. In JB's hands since he is a certified professional meteorologist and Accuweather is willing to pay him mega-bucks.

BTW, my prediction came true. The severe weather was in southern Kansas, and almost, oh just so close, to being central Kansas...close enough for me!

[cycloneye]

We are getting closer to the timeframe that JB said something would form in the WGOM.Any new update from him about this?

[LarryWx]

We are getting closer to the timeframe that JB said something would form in the WGOM.Any new update from him about this?

Luis,
JB is still saying to watch the C & WGOM after about 6/10 although he also says that modeling is further east. He emphasized today that (pre) El Nino seasons of the past have had above average activity in June. Of course, there's still no guarantee yet that we will have an official El Nino starting by this fall. I'm currently favoring an official weak El Nino for the most likely scenario for the upcoming fall/winter as of now. Official requires five trimonths in a row of NINO 3.4 anomalies of +0.5 C or higher.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just watched the latest video, and while JB isn't quite as bullish as he was

HE STILL HASN'T GIVEN UP THE GHOST!

JB says GOMEX needs to be watched in around 8 days (that'd be July, but just barely) and he is watching tropical wave currently entering Caribbean.

Convectively active.

Under 30 to 40 knots of shear, which is probably helping it flare.

JB thinks a bit of the trough near Florida breaks off and retrogrades, pulls the wave into the Gulf, and maybe, just maybe, tries to form something.

He showed a slight bulge in the isobars on the Euro Day 8 isobars around a ridge to suggest the Euro was 'seeing' low pressure in the GOMEX.

GFS doesn't really see much, shows a halfway decent wave move into the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel at the 850 mb level, than die. GFS also shows a tropical depression forming mid-Atlantic in the MDR. That seems unlikely. And a suspicious area near the Bahamas, maybe less unlikely. The GFS depression hugs 10ºN, and stays just South of the Killer Westerlies.



Nothing in the Gulf, however. The free Euro site doesn't have the resolution to show anything, and has nothing over about 30 knots at 850 mb.

12Z Canadian on Environment Canada site is up, and shows nothing as well.

[Bailey1777]

JB is really running out of time on this one. If the wave entering the caribean doesn't play out I see no other real opportunities for June and even that one may not reach the GOM before July.

[OpieStorm]

It's ok, he'll have a excuse as to why he was wrong, people will forgive him, and he'll have a new outlook about how he thinks the Atlantic basin need to be closely watched in August...a storm will form in August and he will be considered a genius as always.

[HouTXmetro]

It's ok, he'll have a excuse as to why he was wrong, people will forgive him, and he'll have a new outlook about how he thinks the Atlantic basin need to be closely watched in August...a storm will form in August and he will be considered a genius as always.

No actual development but can't we give him a little credit for the lil disturbance in the BOC?

[Sanibel]

That little west GOM bugger is spinning. It just doesn't have enough juice to form.

[Bailey1777]

Question, what tools or resources could JB possibly use that would make these way in advance somewhat specific tropical forecast. It seems like it would be just a step above guessing more of a this happens on the average so go with it and if it pans out "PURE GENIUS!" if not there's always next time. Not knocking the guy just my opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

June and July together combine for just a shade over one named storm, so picking half of one of those months, he would have a one on four shot on pure chance.

He was trying to time the MJO from two months out, and last season, most of the development did occur when what was left of the upward motion pulse arrived in the Atlantic Basin.


Now, if he had any model support at all, I'd be perking up my ears. The little thing moving into Mexico looks to have almost closed off at the surface judging from visible imagery, if it had an extra day it could have become a depression.

[Category 5]

We are getting closer to the timeframe that JB said something would form in the WGOM.Any new update from him about this?

Hes sweating now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The not really close to a depression blob of rain showers got a mention on the morning JB discussion.
It did flare convectively as whatever it was came ashore.


He even gave the URL to the KBRO radar.

I think this is the fish that got away. Well, one more shot, the blob SW of Florida, it does seem to have low level Westerlies to the South of it at the surface. No model support, that I am aware of.




The upward motion pulse sort of, kind of, follows a 60 day cycle, IIRC. So, I'll got out on a limb, and say, that in our warm ENSO curtailed hurricane season, if there is a peak, it will be near the climatological peak late August or early September.

B

[Sanibel]

You have to give him partial credit for that thing. Though I personally think he's crazy for making bold predictions like that as a professional.

[cheezyWXguy]

You have to give him partial credit for that thing. Though I personally think he's crazy for making bold predictions like that as a professional.

lol why? He didn't really make a prediction. He just based it off of climatology. June storms typically form in the gulf or nw caribbean. There was never any model support, from what I saw. And all that happened was that a weak tropical wave crossing through the gulf became convectively active for one day. I have a hard time believing that this is what JB was referring to 20 days ago...

[Ed Mahmoud]

You have to give him partial credit for that thing. Though I personally think he's crazy for making bold predictions like that as a professional.

lol why? He didn't really make a prediction. He just based it off of climatology. June storms typically form in the gulf or nw caribbean. There was never any model support, from what I saw. And all that happened was that a weak tropical wave crossing through the gulf became convectively active for one day. I have a hard time believing that this is what JB was referring to 20 days ago...

He started back in late April, IIRC.

[cheezyWXguy]

You have to give him partial credit for that thing. Though I personally think he's crazy for making bold predictions like that as a professional.

lol why? He didn't really make a prediction. He just based it off of climatology. June storms typically form in the gulf or nw caribbean. There was never any model support, from what I saw. And all that happened was that a weak tropical wave crossing through the gulf became convectively active for one day. I have a hard time believing that this is what JB was referring to 20 days ago...

He started back in late April, IIRC.

Haha even further supporting my point.

(btw, I forget what IIRC stands for )

[x-y-no]

Question, what tools or resources could JB possibly use that would make these way in advance somewhat specific tropical forecast. It seems like it would be just a step above guessing more of a this happens on the average so go with it and if it pans out "PURE GENIUS!" if not there's always next time. Not knocking the guy just my opinion.

As best I recall from when I was a subscriber years back, JB uses a combination of operational and ensemble model analysis plus what are called "teleconnections" - essentially using the evolution of the WPAC pattern to predict what the Atlantic pattern will be like 6-10 days down the line.

Also, he uses some set of criteria that I never quite grasped to select analog years on which he bases his seasonal predictions.

I won't venture to say whether the methodology is valid, I really haven't seen any effort at objective verification. But it's not mere guessing.

[Nimbus]

The tail end of that front almost mid gulf is the only thing that would remotely have a chance. Looks like too much shear out of the north at the moment though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

CIMMS seems temporarily unavailable. GFS at Hour 12 (from PSU site) shows 8 to 12 knots Northerly shear over the blob at 7 pm CDT. Not absolutely hostile, but not exactly favorable.

850 mb vorticity forecast shows the front gone from the Gulf completely in about 3 days.