EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE ANDRES (02E)
Downgraded to Tropical Storm
759
WTPZ32 KNHC 240232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...
110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITINONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...64 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 106.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 240232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...THOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER ASYMMETRIC DUE
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE CONVECTIVE
BURST...ANDRES HAS A RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE WITH POORLY-
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND ON THIS BASIS ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A
60 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE EARLIER DISPARITY BETWEEN SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTS THAT GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...MOSTLY A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 20
TO 25 KT AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREAFTER...A STEADIER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS PROJECTED ONCE
ANDRES REACHES EVEN COOLER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH BOTH SHIPS AND ICON.
ANDRES HAS RECENTLY TRACKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 305/9. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE
NEARBY MEXICAN LANDMASS...RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTING
ITSELF NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS SOON AS 12 HOURS FROM NOW...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE MORE LEFTWARD
INITIAL TRACK AND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ARE LIKELY INDICATIONS
THAT ANDRES SHOULD AVOID LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. BY 48
HOURS...A WEAKER ANDRES SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE STEERED MORE TOWARD
THE WEST AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.1N 106.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 107.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 111.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
759
WTPZ32 KNHC 240232
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...
110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITINONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...64 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 106.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 240232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...THOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER ASYMMETRIC DUE
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN SPITE OF THE CONVECTIVE
BURST...ANDRES HAS A RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE WITH POORLY-
DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND ON THIS BASIS ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A
60 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE EARLIER DISPARITY BETWEEN SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTS THAT GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...MOSTLY A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 20
TO 25 KT AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREAFTER...A STEADIER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS PROJECTED ONCE
ANDRES REACHES EVEN COOLER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH BOTH SHIPS AND ICON.
ANDRES HAS RECENTLY TRACKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 305/9. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE
NEARBY MEXICAN LANDMASS...RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTING
ITSELF NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS SOON AS 12 HOURS FROM NOW...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE MORE LEFTWARD
INITIAL TRACK AND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ARE LIKELY INDICATIONS
THAT ANDRES SHOULD AVOID LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. BY 48
HOURS...A WEAKER ANDRES SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE STEERED MORE TOWARD
THE WEST AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.1N 106.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 107.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 111.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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It was interesting when Andres had a new burst of deep convection around the eye yesterday evening, I haven't seen that happen yet actually.
Even though this was one of the latest starting seasons in all of eastern Pacific recorded history, I'm thinking it's going to be one of those types where everything goes off to the races at once type seasons.
Even though this was one of the latest starting seasons in all of eastern Pacific recorded history, I'm thinking it's going to be one of those types where everything goes off to the races at once type seasons.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENING...
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 315
MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENING...
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 315
MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
We'll see if Mission II is a go: They're schedule to take off in a a couple hours and be on station about six hours from now...
Code: Select all
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 23 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-026
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANDRES
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E ANDRES
C. 24/1245Z
D. 21.5N 107.8W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22950
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM ANDRES (02E)
You wouldn't suspect/know that there is a TS in the east Pac just by looking at a satellite image. Andres has just been torn apart in the past 24 hours. Zero deep convection and I can't even find a circulation on IR imagery. Will have to wait another hour or so to locate what's left of the center on visible.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
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Not surprised, mission II canx.
Code: Select all
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT WED 24 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-027
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FOR
24/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/0900Z.
JWP
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22950
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- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM ANDRES (02E)
I think we can safely say that's not a 50kt TS now. Dvorak has 1.5 now, that's 25 kts. If that.
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Jun 24, 2009 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.3N 107.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
THE CENTER OF ANDRES HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN 0856 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS
WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...HOWEVER A TRMM PASS ABOUT
AN HOUR AND A HALF LATER SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING
ELONGATED AT THAT TIME. A MORE RECENT 1250 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAS
PROVIDED MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND
LESS-DEFINED. THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR FROM THE
SCATTEROMETER WAS AROUND 30 KT...WHICH IS USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED...DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
ANDRES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THAT OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.3N 107.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.3N 107.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
800 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
THE CENTER OF ANDRES HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN 0856 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS
WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...HOWEVER A TRMM PASS ABOUT
AN HOUR AND A HALF LATER SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING
ELONGATED AT THAT TIME. A MORE RECENT 1250 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAS
PROVIDED MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND
LESS-DEFINED. THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR FROM THE
SCATTEROMETER WAS AROUND 30 KT...WHICH IS USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED...DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
ANDRES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THAT OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 20.3N 107.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 108.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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HouTXmetro
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)
Last Advisory written
WTPZ32 KNHC 241746
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES NO LONGER HAS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND
ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ32 KNHC 241746
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES NO LONGER HAS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND
ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Contact:
Re:
HouTXmetro wrote:WOW, I can't believe the shear is that strong.
Shear is only part of it. Air mass stability is another part. It's very stable (you can see plenty of stratoform clouds around) and the waters get rapidly cooler in these parts.
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I didn't expect to see Andres die this quickly. The atmosphere up there still must be extremely unfavorable.
A new trend I am seeing in the advisories is the NHC is ending advisories on special/intermediate advisories which they have not done so before unless they were doing that before I started following it all. This is the 2nd TC in the row that they did this.
A new trend I am seeing in the advisories is the NHC is ending advisories on special/intermediate advisories which they have not done so before unless they were doing that before I started following it all. This is the 2nd TC in the row that they did this.
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