Arabian Sea: Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 230130
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 71.0E TO 22.3N 72.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 222330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 71.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
71.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 71.4E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 221611Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP OVER THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS IN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST, LAND
INFLUENCES COULD HAMPER THE INFLOW TO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPER-
ATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 240130Z.//

[HURAKAN]

TPIO10 PGTW 230027

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (W OF INDIA)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 19.1N

D. 70.6E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 69/PBO CON FEAT. CONVECTION WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

[Macrocane]

If this low develops, then the Atlantic would be the only Northern hemisphere basin without a tropical cyclone.

[RL3AO]

If this low develops, then the Atlantic would be the only Northern hemisphere basin without a tropical cyclone.

The Central Pacific would beg to differ.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

23/0230 UTC 19.3N 71.3E T2.0/2.0 93A -- Arabian Sea

[salmon123]

I Was watching this system for 2 days, but there is no much space for further development. as system is moving NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-06-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 23 JUNE, 2009 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23 JUNE, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE 2009 NEAR LAT. 19.00 N AND LONG. 71.50 E, ABOUT 150 KM WEST OF MUMBAI(43003) AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SURAT (42840).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEAA BETWEEN LAT. 16.50N AND 21.00N AND TO THE EAST OF LONG. 67.50E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (AROUND 10-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS 0.50 TO 1.00 C ABOVE NORMAL. THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 210N. A TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 65.00E TO THE NORTH OF 20.00N

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST NEAR SURAT (42840) BY TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE 2009 EVENING/NIGHT.

[Macrocane]

If this low develops, then the Atlantic would be the only Northern hemisphere basin without a tropical cyclone.

The Central Pacific would beg to differ.

Oh, that's true then the Atlantic is not alone

[salmon123]

RB 01/2009/05 Dated: 23. 06. 2009

Time of issue: 2030 hours IST



Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea, close to Gujarat coast



The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 23rd June 2009 over northeast Arabian Sea near lat. 20.50 N and long. 71.00 E, close to south Gujarat and Diu coast near Diu. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and cross south Gujarat and Diu coast, near Diu within a few hours.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat region during the same period. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north Konkan during next 24 hrs.





Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off north Gujarat coast during next 24 hrs and south Gujarat coast during next 12 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-06-2009

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1800 utc OF 23 JUNE, 2009 based on 1500 UTC of 23 JUNE, 2009 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA FURTHER MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSSED NEAR DIU (42914) OF SOUTH GUJARAT COAST AROUND 1400 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE, 2009.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 25 KNOTS. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 998 hpa.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES DISORGANIsATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST THREE HOURS. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 17.50 N AND LONG. 65.50 E TO 72.00 E AND ADJOINING SOUTH GUJARAT AND SAURSTRA & KUTCHH.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 22.00N. A TROUGH IN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 65.00E TO THE NORTH OF 20.00N.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM

[HURAKAN]

[salmon123]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.1N 69.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER LAND WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER WATER WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. A 240610Z TRMM PASS SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED
CENTER. A 240102Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE AREA OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

[ugaap]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.1N 69.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER LAND WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER WATER WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. A 240610Z TRMM PASS SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED
CENTER. A 240102Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE AREA OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

Can this system move West to Arabian Sea and regenerate?

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201230.GIF

Nice circulation and appears to be moving westward, back over water.

[theavocado]

Can this system move West to Arabian Sea and regenerate?

It has a limited window of time. The upper level anti-cyclone has a weakness over the northern Arabian Sea. This has relaxed the vertical wind shear in the region, but only for the next 72 hours or so. Normally this region is shut down by now because the SW monsoon is well defined and the tropical easterly jet is roaring, but this might be a small last hurrah for transition season.

[senorpepr]

Interesting... subtropical disturbance?

TPIO10 PGTW 241509

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93A (NORTHWESTERN INDIA)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 22.4N

D. 69.5E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


KIENZLE

[HURAKAN]

25/0230 UTC 22.6N 68.6E T1.5/1.5 93A -- Arabian Sea

[HURAKAN]

25/0830 UTC 23.0N 68.6E T1.5/1.5 93A -- Arabian Sea

[salmon123]

Not over yet


Yesterdays well marked low pressure area over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood now lies over coastal areas of Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.