Possible Tropical Wave or maybe more per NWS AFD...

[N2Storms]

NWS suggests that there may be a tropical wave or possibly more in the Gulf next Sat / Sun...



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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 220716
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND FOR THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

....LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY).
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE


BY SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TO THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST. THE 22/00Z GFS SHOWS THAT THIS RIDGE BUILDING
BACK EASTWARD WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION A LITTLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE A DRIER FORECAST. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE (MAYBE MORE?) MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 22/00Z EURO
JUST IN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

[tailgater]

Nogaps hinted at something also but pretty far out to give it much creedence.
144hrs out

[ronjon]

Weak low pressure from 06Z GFS moving up into the GOM from the western caribbean - the GFS has shown this wave, originating near JAM on Thursday, for over a weeks worth of runs.

[Sanibel]

We could use the rain. Even with the early start to the rain we have only had two good rain events.

[MGC]

Would be nice to get some tropical moisture here. I'd take a weak TS at this point. Hardly any rain the past 2-3 months.....MGC

[Bailey1777]

This may be at least something to talk about. The silence is deafening right now. Local weather guy acts like this one may have a little potential down the road. Anyone care to chime in?

[ronjon]

For what its worth, 06Z NAM jumps on the tropical cyclone bandwagon big time.

[vbhoutex]

This may be at least something to talk about. The silence is deafening right now. Local weather guy acts like this one may have a little potential down the road. Anyone care to chime in?

Who mentioned this? I don't watch all the channels all the time but I usually catch something like this.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS has been showing this wave for many days now, but I've not seen any hint of a closed surface low. Needs to be watched though for sure!

[Bailey1777]

The Fox 26 guy I can't remember his name. When I said potential I meant for some precip in the area sorry I wasn't clearer.

[tailgater]

ETA at 84 hrs.

NAM at 84 hrs. out

I dont know if these 2 models get the same data but i would guess they do, being this close.
and the 00 GFS at 84 hrs. out.

[ronjon]

NAM at it again. However, I don't see any deep convection that warrants any development now.

[Sanibel]

That front is sitting over the GOM but it doesn't look strong enough to cook up into anything.

[N2Storms]

Actually...the Tallahassee NWS has not mentioned the Tropical Wave since Tuesday's discussion so they have evidently written it off

[ronjon]

Convection is now firing off the east coast NIC. This must be what the NAM and GFS are picking up on as the T-wave that heads toward the north coast of the YUC over the next few days. Convection aided by diverence from an ULL over HON.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

CMC is on board





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HouTXmetro]

Not impressive but anything would help. Looks like North Central/Eastern Gulf could possibly be affected should something develop.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, this thread sort of follows the JB thread, as I just discussed his latest video.


He predicted an increased risk of Western GOMEX tropical action second half of June, way back in April...

[OpieStorm]

What CMC is saying is that it looks like it will start at the mid-levels, cross the Yucatan, and then make it to the surface in the BOC.

[Category 5]

He predicted an increased risk of Western GOMEX tropical action second half of June, way back in April...

Again, thats like predicting the first day of summer will occur in late june in april.