ATL : INVEST 93L

[HURAKAN]

As always, wait and see. Not sold on development yet. Lets see if a low pressure develops.

[lrak]

I can see the rotation beginning where wxman57 placed the red cross. The next few frames should really show us...eek. I really use to love this kind of action when I rented and surfed EVERYDAY...but now with family, cats, dogs, fish, and a big arse house I get so much anxiety from these things now.

17n 84w i see spin

[xironman]

It definitely has the convergence thing going on near the cross hairs. This is way different than it was over night with little convergence that close to the area

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can see the rotation beginning where wxman57 placed the red cross. The next few frames should really show us...eek. I really use to love this kind of action when I rented and surfed EVERYDAY...but now with family, cats, dogs, fish, and a big arse house I get so much anxiety from these things now.

17n 84w i see spin

Since my house missed out on the rain yesterday, I would actually not complain about a nice 50 mph tropical storm dropping six inches on the house then moving on, especially if it cleared out before next weekend.

I little weesh-casting there. The Canadian was the first major to see it, 12Z and 0Z, and both times has aimed at the Northeast GOMEX coast.

I hope a 12Z GFDL gets run, that might give a little better feel for it.


NASA, besides spending a lot of money on shuttles, which could be better spent on rockets, also serves the public by allowing anybody to make his own custon super-zoomed floater. Me, I want a manned mission to Mars, but that is getting off topic.

Custom made super zoomed floater shows no obvious low level center, at least not yet.

[Frank2]

Per the surface obs and satellite, it does seem there is/was a weak LLC/MLC (perhaps a bit "stronger" MLC) and as wxman57 mentioned, it seems both are separating, so, probably the NHC will keep the risk at less than 30%...

Hopefully, though as others mentioned, TX needs rain, for sure...

[boca]

Hey Ed the models say this will get west of 90w.This looks like a WGOM system.Its your turn to get a system instead of Florida.This is only true if it stays together.

[cycloneye]

The TCPOD position for recon is 23N 90W,so it will go west of that 90w longitud.

[cycloneye]

I know the NAM is not the best model to look at,but it has shown this low pressure for many runs.The 12z run today is no exception,but is not a strong low as CMC has.Lets see what the 12z GFDL and HWRF have.

[tailgater]

It definitely has the convergence thing going on near the cross hairs. This is way different than it was over night with little convergence that close to the area

WOW if that should continue they will will need recon before Sunday afternoon.

[boca]

If their is a trough over the Eastern US next week wouldn't that cause this sytem if it forms to move more northerly rather than NW towards LA/TX area.More like Mobile/Pensecola area because based on the discussions a front is expected to stall in that area causing a sw flow ahead of it.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of work to do to get to Ana.

[Nederlander]

Here we go again.. another season.. I welcome rain here, but lets keep it cat 1 or lower... still rebuilding from IKE

[KatDaddy]

Friday morning email from Jeff Lindner and his thoughts:

How quickly things can change…



Tropical wave is interacting with an upper level trough over the western Caribbean Sea this morning. Surface pressures remain high in the area and no surface low pressure is noted at the surface at this time. However, convection has been increasing due to the interact of the wave axis with the upper trough and it is possible a surface low may form in this region.



Of concern is that the high pressure over the southern plains will begin to weaken its grip allowing this system to move into the southern and south-central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend into early next week. While global models are not very bullish on this system, upper air conditions appears to be favorable for development and central Gulf heat content is of some concern.



Since there is not a defined surface low…the overall track of the mass will be toward the WNW and NW. Guidance runs this morning agree with this general track and have the system into the central Gulf by early to mid next week. Close watch will be needed.

[Portastorm]

Oh, we won't get anything in Texas ... not as long as the High Pressure of Death is in control. We'll see continued 100+ high temps and no rain. (reverse psychology mode off)

[Nederlander]

Oh, we won't get anything in Texas ... not as long as the High Pressure of Death is in control. We'll see continued 100+ high temps and no rain. (reverse psychology mode off)

According to our local MET here in Beaumont.. the high should move west next week but forecast also indicates it moving back east toward the middle or end of next week...

[cycloneye]

You can see in this water vapor loop how the TUTT is retrograding to the SW,allowing an upper high to start to build behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[HouTXmetro]

I know the NAM is not the best model to look at,but it has shown this low pressure for many runs.The 12z run today is no exception,but is not a strong low as CMC has.Lets see what the 12z GFDL and HWRF have.

How many hours out is that model?

[cheezyWXguy]

You can see in this water vapor loop how the TUTT is retrograding to the SW,allowing an upper high to start to build behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Yeah, and it would seem that an ULL in that position would help to ventilate it, providing better outflow...

[southerngale]

84 hours

[HouTXmetro]

:uarrow: 84 hours

Thanks SGale, that would be sometime Monday night I suppose. Just trying to time where this potential player might be by the time Ole High Pressure looks across his Gulf and rears his head again.