ATL : INVEST 93L

[KWT]

Another big flare going up a fair bit closer to that circulation, seems to be slowly building up closer to the center in pluses.

Derek, CMC really isn't that great of a model to base everything on, it develops things that don't form, then sometimes misses the ones that do go on to develop. GFS must be a long way ahead of it in terms of a model. Saying that if there any stats out there for that sort of thing I'd be curious to know more.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Waiting to see the new SHIPs guidance. If a system that isn't even actually a closed low yet, is initialized at 20 or 25 knots, and doesn't at least reach moderate tropical storm strength on the model in 3 days, it is a pretty good clue the model doesn't see very favorable conditions for development.

[cycloneye]

This is all that the 12z GFDL does.

900
WHXX04 KWBC 261722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 83.8 325./ 8.0
6 16.8 83.0 61./ 8.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

[Sanibel]

I agree with wx57. Visible shows what looks like and open wave with convection flaring around a mildly persisting center. Yucatan could still easily destroy this and we've seen these blow down many times before. Otherwise looks like showtime for the GOM. I also agree this is an undeniable Bastardi 'hit' if it forms.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

590
ABNT20 KNHC 261740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Sanibel]

The next pulse/burst should tell us a lot.

[KWT]

Yep not surprised its upto code orange due to that convective burst a little closer to the center then the last one. Still has a long way to go before it does anything but as is being mentioned conditions don't look that bad once it gets to the gulf, at least the southern portion anyway!

[Tireman4]

Oh, we won't get anything in Texas ... not as long as the High Pressure of Death is in control


Amen Porta. Amen.

[PTrackerLA]

Actually I think it looks better than this morning given that we now have intense convection closer to the center of the Invest as opposed to the Caymans. The code orange now has really perked my attention. Could get interesting by Monday.

[cycloneye]

The track of GFDL takes whatever feature is,to the west florida coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[tailgater]

48 hrs. out

then at 72 hrs. out nothing

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFDL doesn't always develop an embryonic system that eventually develops, but it sure does suggest development, if any, will be slow.

I am still waiting for SHIPS. A less than 10 or 15 knot increase in strength in 3 or more days is a pretty good indication, in my amateur experience, that conditions aren't quite right.

[cycloneye]

The 12z HWRF is very bullish taking it thru the Yucatan channel,then towards the SW Florida coast as a strong tropical storm.



Loop below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Also very agressive with the way it sends the system ENE, thats not really a common track type for late June/early June, at least not to that extent anyway. I'd be very surprised if that were to occur. Think the HWRF is being too agressive with the trough.

[Extremeweatherguy]

---the images were updated, and my original response is outdated. It has been removed.---

[srainhoutx]

Just a word to the wise. Unless we have a center of circulation the model tracks are a long shot at best IMHO...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh, we won't get anything in Texas ... not as long as the High Pressure of Death is in control


Amen Porta. Amen.

I'd welcome anything below hurricane strength, we need the rain something fierce.


But Florida seems to be the place the models are pointing, even the GFDL, sort of.


He who shall not be named gives this a better than 50/50 shot, saying in his video he would be surprised if it didn't develop, but based on lack of enthusiasm in most of the models, I'd still be in the code yellow (<30% ) range. In my amateur and unofficial opinion.

[KWT]

I think orange is personally about right myself Ed, given the new deep convection flaring up much closer to the where the center is, thats a good step towards getting something going.

[Bailey1777]

Hey Ed is he buying into the Eastward track?