ATL : INVEST 93L

[cycloneye]

But Florida seems to be the place the models are pointing, even the GFDL, sort of.

You have to see the HWRF run.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I see what looks to be something forming (LLC, MLC?) around 17 84. It appears to me some of the lower clouds in this vicinity have started moving in a more easterly direction as the entire mass moves west / NW.

Very difficult for an amateur like me to tell.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey Ed is he buying into the Eastward track?

I didn't get a clear feeling from he who shall not be named's video where he thought it would go.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC BEST TRACK

AL, 93, 2009062618, , BEST, 0, 171N, 844W, 20, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

SHIP makes it a hurricane in this 18 UTC run.

WHXX01 KWBC 261814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC FRI JUN 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090626 1800 090627 0600 090627 1800 090628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 84.4W 18.3N 86.3W 19.7N 87.9W 20.4N 88.9W
BAMD 17.1N 84.4W 19.1N 85.8W 20.9N 87.0W 22.2N 87.9W
BAMM 17.1N 84.4W 18.8N 86.0W 20.4N 87.2W 21.6N 88.1W
LBAR 17.1N 84.4W 18.6N 85.6W 20.2N 86.7W 21.8N 87.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090628 1800 090629 1800 090630 1800 090701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 89.4W 21.1N 89.4W 21.2N 89.6W 22.0N 91.7W
BAMD 22.7N 88.6W 22.7N 89.1W 22.2N 89.1W 22.4N 90.1W
BAMM 22.2N 88.5W 22.2N 88.4W 22.0N 88.4W 22.7N 89.9W
LBAR 22.8N 87.8W 24.5N 86.4W 26.4N 83.1W 30.9N 76.8W
SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 63KTS 68KTS
DSHP 37KTS 51KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 84.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 83.2W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[lrak]

new CMC shows NOTHING

likely nothing to see it appears. Afternoon satellite imagery also trends toward that direction

Ok a laymens post from a met? We get slammed for posts like this

What a joke

[wxman57]

Models in better agreement at least in taking the lower-level vorticity center northward then NE across Florida. GFS gave up on NW Gulf impact as of 12Z. Can't understand the upgrade to a MDT chance by NHC, as I see no evidence of increasing organization. Wave axis is separating from convection again. No LLC. Development chances maybe 20-25% beyond 48 hours.

Just looking at the low-level flow projected by all models for the next 3-5 days, I could see a track northward then NE across the mid to lower FL peninsula. But this "track" may only represent an area of thunderstorms vs. a TS/H.

One thing I still believe is that IF (big IF) it does develop and get into the south-central Gulf, then conditions aloft would be favorable for steady intensification.

I like that term "High Pressure of Death" across Texas.

[cycloneye]

Models in better agreement at least in taking the lower-level vorticity center northward then NE across Florida. GFS gave up on NW Gulf impact as of 12Z. Can't understand the upgrade to a MDT chance by NHC, as I see no evidence of increasing organization. Wave axis is separating from convection again. No LLC. Development chances maybe 20-25% beyond 48 hours.

Just looking at the low-level flow projected by all models for the next 3-5 days, I could see a track northward then NE across the mid to lower FL peninsula. But this "track" may only represent an area of thunderstorms vs. a TS/H.

One thing I still believe is that IF (big IF) it does develop and get into the south-central Gulf, then conditions aloft would be favorable for steady intensification.

I like that term "High Pressure of Death" across Texas.

What I understand about why they upgraded the code may be because when it reaches the GOM,then it will have better conditions.

[wxman57]

What I understand about why they upgraded the code may be because when it reaches the GOM,then it will have better conditions.

Right, that assumes that the disturbance would not have had the opportunity yet to reach the Gulf and develop during the 48 hour period starting earlier this morning. However, the models aren't too gung-ho on development, yet. HWRF has it as a TS this afternoon/evening, but that seems quite a stretch as there first has to be an LLC.

[KWT]

The circualation that does seem to be present, in whatever form is quite close to the new convective burst so that will need watching, even though wxman57 is right in that they are seperated.

[Derek Ortt]

added a floater on the system

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

Labeled as invest 03. Just a single image so far... so it will take a couple of hours for a loop to be generated.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC SHIPS Intensity forecast

Shear appears not to be a problem down the road (Between 2-13 kts)

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL932009  06/26/09  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    33    41    47    55    59    63    65    68
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    29    37    44    51    55    60    62    65
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    21    22    23    29    33    38    45    52    59    63

SHEAR (KT)         8    10     9     3    13     2     8     4     5    11     6    13    11
SHEAR DIR        251   229   255   131   129   254    75    20    20   316   344   299   310
SST (C)         28.7  28.8  28.7  28.5  28.3  28.0  27.9  27.9  27.9  28.0  27.9  27.9  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   147   149   147   144   140   135   132   130   131   131   131   132   132
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   143   139   134   129   119   114   111   112   112   114   115   116
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)      12    12    10    10    12    10    11    11    12    12    13    12    13
700-500 MB RH     65    65    69    66    66    59    61    57    58    58    54    53    55
GFS VTEX (KT)      4     6     8     8     9     8     8     7     7     7     7     7     8
850 MB ENV VOR   -22   -17   -20   -28   -21   -10     0     0    14    37    21     6     8
200 MB DIV        52    45     3    -3    -3   -20    16    17    14    16    12    20    30
LAND (KM)        140   228   160    85     8     2    78    91    75    48    53    99   170
LAT (DEG N)     17.1  18.0  18.8  19.6  20.4  21.6  22.2  22.3  22.2  22.0  22.0  22.3  22.7
LONG(DEG W)     84.4  85.2  86.0  86.6  87.2  88.1  88.5  88.6  88.4  88.2  88.4  88.9  89.9
STM SPEED (KT)     9    11    10    10     9     5     2     0     1     0     2     4     5
HEAT CONTENT      54    60    67    58    31     0     3     4     3     1     1     5    11

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  8      CX,CY:  -5/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  603  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  25.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   5.  10.  17.  22.  26.  28.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   5.   6.   9.  11.  12.  13.  13.  14.  14.  13.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   5.   8.  13.  21.  27.  35.  39.  43.  45.  48.

   ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009     INVEST 06/26/09  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.7 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  18.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 116.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  40.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  25.0 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  54.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009     INVEST 06/26/09  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY 

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[Ed Mahmoud]

I told you guys my unofficial color is still yellow, and WxMan57, who is rarely wrong (but did once pooh-pooh my 5 day GFS run in December that hinted at my December 10th snow miracle, but nobody is perfect) agrees with me.


My home made (with a little help from NASA satellite cookie mix) visible loop with 10 frames.


ETA: That doubt of the 120 hour GFS run showing precip and sub 0ºC 850 mb temps didn't happen here at S2K, but on the local weather forum, his track record at S2K on winter weather miracles is apparently spotless)

[Ed Mahmoud]

new CMC shows NOTHING

likely nothing to see it appears. Afternoon satellite imagery also trends toward that direction

Ok a laymens post from a met? We get slammed for posts like this

What a joke

I understood it, and no pro-met comments on more sports threads than Mr. Ortt.


I'd nominate him for member of the month, if I ever remembered to.

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree with wx57. Visible shows what looks like and open wave with convection flaring around a mildly persisting center. Yucatan could still easily destroy this and we've seen these blow down many times before. Otherwise looks like showtime for the GOM. I also agree this is an undeniable Bastardi 'hit' if it forms.

Because he based it off of a statistical norm, or an mjo pulse? ok..

Anyway, the yucatan wouldn't destroy this. Weak systems with no surface circulation fair much better than strong storms because there is no surface circulation to disrupt. Chances are ok for development i guess in the W Carib, but I bet chances increase in the gulf due to further improving conditions and extended time for this to get its act together.

[HouTXmetro]

IF something pops looks like Florida and North Central Guld needs to watch this one closely.

[cheezyWXguy]

IF something pops looks like Florida and North Central Guld needs to watch this one closely.

I havent seen the models since this morning, but weren't the pointing more towards the NGOM and west? Has that since changed?

[cycloneye]

Here is the link to the 93L models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105674&start=0

[Ed Mahmoud]

That suggests unfavorable conditions for 24 to 48 hours if it follows the forecast track of the BAMM, followed by increasingly favorable conditions.


If it is still there to take advantage of them.

BAMM just crawls it North and Northwestward

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 261814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC FRI JUN 26 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090626 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090626  1800   090627  0600   090627  1800   090628  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  84.4W   18.3N  86.3W   19.7N  87.9W   20.4N  88.9W
BAMD    17.1N  84.4W   19.1N  85.8W   20.9N  87.0W   22.2N  87.9W
BAMM    17.1N  84.4W   18.8N  86.0W   20.4N  87.2W   21.6N  88.1W
LBAR    17.1N  84.4W   18.6N  85.6W   20.2N  86.7W   21.8N  87.4W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          33KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090628  1800   090629  1800   090630  1800   090701  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.0N  89.4W   21.1N  89.4W   21.2N  89.6W   22.0N  91.7W
BAMD    22.7N  88.6W   22.7N  89.1W   22.2N  89.1W   22.4N  90.1W
BAMM    22.2N  88.5W   22.2N  88.4W   22.0N  88.4W   22.7N  89.9W
LBAR    22.8N  87.8W   24.5N  86.4W   26.4N  83.1W   30.9N  76.8W
SHIP        41KTS          55KTS          63KTS          68KTS
DSHP        37KTS          51KTS          60KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.1N LONCUR =  84.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  83.2W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  14.8N LONM24 =  82.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[N2Storms]

Just a snippet from the Miami NWS AFD this afternoon...



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...MORE RAINFALL ON THE WAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...



.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME OF LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO
DEVELOP A DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFT IT
NORTHWARD. THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL THAT DRIFTS THE DISTURBANCE
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK IS THE 12Z GFS WHICH AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT BUY INTO...AS IT HAS SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE INPUT
DATA THIS MORNING.