ATL : INVEST 93L

[Aric Dunn]

I will say congrats NAM for sniffing this out for the past 48 hours. The new NAM may have scored a coup.

Steve, its the NAM and always will be the NAM....every blind squirrel finds a acorn once in a while.....

Point taken Paul, but facts are facts...

it did sniff Alberto a few years back before the upgrades.....hmmm

you do know they found a bug in the NAM's coding and fixed it right
not sure if that was a sign its a little better for tropics or not but // it is what it is ..

[KatDaddy]

Very nice ventilation ongoing from time lapse VIS satellite this afternoon. My thinking is this will be the first TC of the year in the Atlantic Basin. The battle between the depth of the trough and strength of the ridge will be the deciding factor where the system will go.

[cycloneye]

My thinking is this will be the first TC of the year

A small correction Kat.The first TC in the North Atlantic Basin was TD 1 in late May.

[HURAKAN]

Convection weakening. Lets see if it pulses back.

[Cookie]

wasn't expecting this for when I came home from work.

btw why do so many post have to have personal disclaimers etc?

[Sanibel]

Short time period between pulses. Should see good burst tonight if pulse timing continues. Should only go up from there.

Why the personal disclaimers? Too many busts...

[wxman57]

This 2nd convective pulse does appear to be weakening now. Surface obs show absolutely no evidence of rotation. In fact, they show anticyclonic flow in the region. My coworker suggests that a small are of speed convergence initiated the convective burst this afternoon. That appears to be over with now. Persistence, persistence, persistence is the key for developing an LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

This 2nd convective pulse does appear to be weakening now. Surface obs show absolutely no evidence of rotation. In fact, they show anticyclonic flow in the region. My coworker suggests that a small are of speed convergence initiated the convective burst this afternoon. That appears to be over with now. Persistence, persistence, persistence is the key for developing an LLC.

hehe .. i agree with you ... for once ..

[southerngale]

wasn't expecting this for when I came home from work.

btw why do so many post have to have personal disclaimers etc?

You don't need to post the disclaimer when you're just commenting and for most posts. You need to post the disclaimer when posting forecasts. Most of us who are here know what is official and what is not, but there are new people coming in all the time and we can't have someone mistaking an amateur's forecast for an official one. I don't think anyone here would want someone reading their forecast and making bad decisions based on it. A quick copy/paste when making forecasts helps protect you, storm2k, and most importantly, the members and guests reading the board.

[Cookie]

wasn't expecting this for when I came home from work.

btw why do so many post have to have personal disclaimers etc?

You don't need to post the disclaimer when you're just commenting and for most posts. You need to post the disclaimer when posting forecasts. Most of us who are here know what is official and what is not, but there are new people coming in all the time and we can't have someone mistaking an amateur's forecast for an official one. I don't think anyone here would want someone reading their forecast and making bad decisions based on it. A quick copy/paste when making forecasts helps protect you, storm2k, and most importantly, the members and guests reading the board.

ahh right I understand, thats understandable! I will never need to post one then im not expert I just like reading!

[cycloneye]

18 UTC GFDL

The first run only lasted 6 hours.At this 18 UTC run it lasts longer,114 hours.After 72 hours,it races NE off the EC.

207
WHXX04 KWBC 262325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.0 84.5 315./ 8.0
6 17.1 85.0 290./ 4.4
12 18.2 85.7 327./12.8
18 18.8 86.6 304./10.8
24 20.8 86.3 9./19.4
30 21.8 86.6 346./10.5
36 23.2 86.8 349./14.0
42 24.3 86.8 1./11.0
48 24.8 86.2 49./ 7.1
54 25.2 85.4 59./ 8.9
60 25.9 84.7 49./ 9.0
66 26.3 83.9 63./ 8.3
72 26.5 82.7 81./11.3
78 27.1 81.2 66./14.6
84 28.1 79.3 61./19.3
90 29.4 77.1 60./23.7
96 31.3 74.3 56./30.6
102 33.4 70.9 58./34.7
108 35.5 67.3 60./37.1
114 37.2 64.0 63./31.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL big difference .. in the 18z run ..

[cycloneye]

Mantains Code Orange

613
ABNT20 KNHC 262331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO
WESTERN CUBA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA AND HONDURAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Rainband]

18 UTC GFDL

The first run only lasted 6 hours.At this 18 UTC run it lasts longer,114 hours.After 72 hours,it races NE off the EC.

207
WHXX04 KWBC 262325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.0 84.5 315./ 8.0
6 17.1 85.0 290./ 4.4
12 18.2 85.7 327./12.8
18 18.8 86.6 304./10.8
24 20.8 86.3 9./19.4
30 21.8 86.6 346./10.5
36 23.2 86.8 349./14.0
42 24.3 86.8 1./11.0
48 24.8 86.2 49./ 7.1
54 25.2 85.4 59./ 8.9
60 25.9 84.7 49./ 9.0
66 26.3 83.9 63./ 8.3
72 26.5 82.7 81./11.3
78 27.1 81.2 66./14.6
84 28.1 79.3 61./19.3
90 29.4 77.1 60./23.7
96 31.3 74.3 56./30.6
102 33.4 70.9 58./34.7
108 35.5 67.3 60./37.1
114 37.2 64.0 63./31.1

STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

graphics

[cycloneye]

graphics

They release the text first and then around 20-30 minutes later the graphics.Stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

Graphics of 18 UTC GFDL

Landfall Near FT Myers as a Tropical Storm.



Loop of 18 UTC GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

18 UTC HWRF

Is more slower than GFDL.Landfall in 96 hours as a hurricane in Tampa.



Loop Below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[wxman57]

With BAM models (non-dynamic):


Only dynamic models.

[cycloneye]

The thread went to a new page and that is why I notify the members that the 18 UTC runs of GFDL and HWRF are posted at the end of page 2.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS FROM 10N-21N
ALONG 84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17.5N. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND IS
IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HONDURAS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...
SPREADING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=