ATL : INVEST 93L

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with wxman57 that persistence is the key here. If the convergence and convection ramps up again overnight we could have an LLC trying to form over the weekend. I suspect the forecasted early model tracks will swing all over the eastern Gulf over the weekend. The only fly I see in the ointment once in the Gulf is possible dry air entrainment at this point if it develops.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BEST TRACK

Winds increase to 30 kts.

AL, 93, 2009062700, , BEST, 0, 179N, 849W, 30, 1008, DB

Link to Best track site.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

852
WHXX01 KWBC 270048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SAT JUN 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090627 0000 090627 1200 090628 0000 090628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 84.9W 19.4N 86.8W 20.6N 88.0W 21.6N 88.9W
BAMD 17.9N 84.9W 20.0N 86.0W 21.6N 86.9W 22.6N 87.7W
BAMM 17.9N 84.9W 19.7N 86.2W 21.1N 87.1W 22.1N 87.9W
LBAR 17.9N 84.9W 19.4N 86.1W 21.0N 87.1W 22.3N 88.0W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090629 0000 090630 0000 090701 0000 090702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 89.3W 22.2N 89.5W 22.0N 90.0W 22.6N 92.0W
BAMD 22.9N 88.1W 22.6N 88.6W 22.1N 89.0W 22.5N 89.8W
BAMM 22.6N 88.3W 22.5N 88.6W 22.3N 88.9W 23.1N 90.3W
LBAR 23.4N 88.1W 25.0N 86.8W 26.7N 83.6W 30.4N 77.2W
SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 72KTS 70KTS
DSHP 51KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 83.7W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

[cycloneye]

00 UTC SHIPS Intensity forecast

Shear does not seem to big a big problem,only land interactions.

Code: Select all

       *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL932009  06/27/09  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    35    39    44    47    53    59    63    69    70    72    70    70
V (KT) LAND       30    35    39    44    40    45    51    55    60    62    63    62    62
V (KT) LGE mod    30    34    37    40    37    41    46    53    59    64    68    70    70

SHEAR (KT)        13    11     2     8    10     5     3    12     2    12    11    19    20
SHEAR DIR        223   248   242   145   189    15   198   350   277   323   267   310   258
SST (C)         28.7  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.2  28.0  28.0  27.9  27.9  27.9  27.9  27.8  27.7
POT. INT. (KT)   147   147   145   142   138   134   132   130   130   130   132   131   130
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   139   135   130   125   118   114   111   111   111   114   114   112
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C)      13    11    10    12    12    10    12    10    12    11    13    11    13
700-500 MB RH     69    69    70    67    65    61    56    58    54    58    55    53    49
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     8     9     9     8     8     9     8    11    10    10    10    11
850 MB ENV VOR   -20   -19   -21   -14    -9   -11    -7     9    31    59    68    36    16
200 MB DIV        47    -1     0    -6   -13     4    13    48    26    24    35     9     7
LAND (KM)        222   207   125    54   -20    56   115   120   112   105    99   151   224
LAT (DEG N)     17.9  18.8  19.7  20.4  21.1  22.1  22.6  22.6  22.5  22.4  22.3  22.6  23.1
LONG(DEG W)     84.9  85.6  86.2  86.7  87.1  87.9  88.3  88.5  88.6  88.7  88.9  89.6  90.3
STM SPEED (KT)    10    11    10     8     7     5     2     1     1     1     2     4     3
HEAT CONTENT      58    68    63    57    59     2     6     5     5     5     5     8    23

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  8      CX,CY:  -5/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  626  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  86.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   3.   6.   9.  14.  17.  20.  21.  22.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   8.  10.  11.  12.  12.  12.  11.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   4.   5.   5.   6.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.   9.  14.  17.  23.  29.  33.  39.  40.  42.  40.  40.

   ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009     INVEST 06/27/09  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 103.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  80.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.2 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  61.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    36% is   3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    22% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    13% is   2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009     INVEST 06/27/09  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY           

Link to SHIP forecasts.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HWRF is on Crack. LOL.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable-
intensity wise- but not track- track I have no clue.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.
And no I don't think that there will be a cat 2 in the gulf. HWRF is on Crack.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Who Fed the HWRF Too much Sugar? It's gone wild.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.

The fact that it is only 4 days out is a little scary too. If this system does form, then it will probably catch quite a few non-weather watchers off guard.

[Macrocane]

It's curious how the CMC dropped the system and now more models are doing something with it. I think it has a good chance of becoming a tropical cyclone once it reaches the gulf as I've said earlier. I agree that dry air could be a problem but if it stays well south (in a track similar to Fay) then it won't have any problem to intensify to a tropical storm.

[srainhoutx]

Who Fed the HWRF Too much Sugar? It's gone wild.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.
And no I don't think that there will be a cat 2 in the gulf. HWRF is on Crack.

Thank you. Too soon to buy into the dynamics IMHO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Who Fed the HWRF Too much Sugar? It's gone wild.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.

The fact that it is only 4 days out is a little scary too. If this system does form, then it will probably catch quite a few non-weather watchers off guard.

That's true- lots if other folk might wonder where this system came out of. Models 4 days out shift a lot...tomorrow night they could have it pointing
much further away from Florida

Does the HWRF still have issues with over-intensification? Was it this model that was
notorious for too much intensity in previous years?

[pojo]

this is going to be interesting.......

93L has potential for development.

Earliest flight into 93L would be Sunday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tampa Bay Hurricane- your nic, and maybe your forecast?

Who knows?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Got a nice 'shape' to it, but the cloud tops are warming quite a bit.

SE winds at P. Lempira and E winds at La Ceiba seem the wrong direction if there was much of anything at the surface.

[brunota2003]

this is going to be interesting.......

93L has potential for development.

Earliest flight into 93L would be Sunday.

I dunno if this was posted on here or not, which falls in with what you were saying:

NOUS42 KNHC 261300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.

[pojo]

this is going to be interesting.......

93L has potential for development.

Earliest flight into 93L would be Sunday.

I dunno if this was posted on here or not, which falls in with what you were saying:

NOUS42 KNHC 261300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.

Yup, that's exactly what CARCAH passed up to us.

[brunota2003]

Pressures in the area from buoys outside the convection area (one to the north and one to the east) are between 1013 and 1014.

[brunota2003]

Which those coordinates are north of the Yucatan

[floridasun78]

so could move alway from florida? i see more have it toward florida

[ROCK]

Who Fed the HWRF Too much Sugar? It's gone wild.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.
And no I don't think that there will be a cat 2 in the gulf. HWRF is on Crack.

Thank you. Too soon to buy into the dynamics IMHO.

I agree...no LLC to actually initialize from. EURO not even seeing it....1:30 am is to late for me to stay up...

[HurricaneQueen]

Hi Everyone. First post of the season and hope you all are well. Our local meteorologist (Ft. Myers) is already discussing the low and said to keep an eye on it. Robert is a great forecaster and he figures we may be tracking it by Monday.

Lynn

[brunota2003]

Who Fed the HWRF Too much Sugar? It's gone wild.

18Z HWRF Sends a Category 2 Hurricane into Tampa Bay-
that hasn't happened since 1921- bottom
of previous page of thread
(weakens to Upper Category 1 before landfall)- I think that is way
too strong...at most it would be probably a tropical storm.

I think the GFDL tropical storm solution into Fort Myers is more reasonable.

In any case it is 4 days out on the HWRF, meaning the track could shift
significantly. So don't focus too much on these early models. They will change.
And no I don't think that there will be a cat 2 in the gulf. HWRF is on Crack.

Thank you. Too soon to buy into the dynamics IMHO.

I agree...no LLC to actually initialize from. EURO not even seeing it....1:30 am is to late for me to stay up...

On a friday night??? neverrrrr