ATL : INVEST 93L

[senorpepr]

Special feature from the 1805Z Trop Wx Disc:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO 5N88W MOVG W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
IN PARTICULAR...NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCING BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[fci]

Thank you. I will be sure to remember that later in the season when everyone is saying the models don't have a clue because there isn't an LLC or anything. In fact, I may just save your reply to remind others later.

the only time a vortex matters if for SHIPS (as it assumes the system is already a depression or a storm), and SOMETIMES the HWRF/GFDL. However, that is only due to the FORTRAN code and how the moving nest system works. The moving nest needs a center to track, or else the model crashes (and the storm dissipates by default)

I have to go with Dizzy on this.
I swear that I have heard (read on here) MANY times that the models meant nothing until a LLC developed.
I too will copy and paste this one so I can post it later when many claim that the models mean nothing until there is development to a LLC.

[cycloneye]

Still at Code Orange


ABNT20 KNHC 271748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF THE WAVE REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA AND COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Evil Jeremy]

I have no idea why this is still a Code Orange. It deserves to be a code yellow at this point.

[AdamFirst]

I have no idea why this is still a Code Orange. It deserves to be a code yellow at this point.

I'd give the pro mets the benefit of the doubt.

[Derek Ortt]

Thank you. I will be sure to remember that later in the season when everyone is saying the models don't have a clue because there isn't an LLC or anything. In fact, I may just save your reply to remind others later.

the only time a vortex matters if for SHIPS (as it assumes the system is already a depression or a storm), and SOMETIMES the HWRF/GFDL. However, that is only due to the FORTRAN code and how the moving nest system works. The moving nest needs a center to track, or else the model crashes (and the storm dissipates by default)

I have to go with Dizzy on this.
I swear that I have heard (read on here) MANY times that the models meant nothing until a LLC developed.
I too will copy and paste this one so I can post it later when many claim that the models mean nothing until there is development to a LLC.

you heard misinformation. The models do have the ability to develop their own LLC, which is correct in this type of situation

[Aric Dunn]

I have no idea why this is still a Code Orange. It deserves to be a code yellow at this point.

becasue they are looking at the environment down the road .. the fact of the matter is, is that we have a tropical wave moving into the gulf that already has a good upper environment but is lacking the lower level surface dynamics at the moment. the NHC is looking at conditions in the gulf and what it will be over the next 24 to 36 hours. The dynamics may be more conducive tomorrow and so they are still at code red..

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF

Finnally HWRF is doing the logic in intensity,no hurricane,but still has a strong tropical storm making landfall just north of Tampa.



Loop below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

cimss

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

Latitud=19.9n
Longitud=87.3w
Winds=25kts
Pressure=1008 mbs
System=Disturbance

AL, 93, 2009062718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 873W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[gone2beach]

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

Putting the disclaimer in because I tend to agree with this. Boy, am I ever learning a lot from you folks!! Thanks so much for all the education.

I thought I'd share some of the discussion from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA, 1053 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009


.MARINE...
HAVE LOOKED AT MANY DIFFERENT NATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING TO GET A
BEARING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL BE IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE FOUND SOME
CLUES THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON AND SOME THAT NONE AGREE ON.
REGARDLESS TO SAY...IN THE SHORT TERM THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEST...AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF(BAY OF CAMPECHE). ANOTHER IS
DEVELOPING NORTH BY NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE ONE OF
THESE TWO PATHS ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF. BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH
PATH THE MAIN ONE TAKES...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE OTHER DEEP MOISTURE BRANCH AS WELL. GFS HAS
THE MAIN FEATURE MOVING NORTH THEN NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ETA ALONG WITH
THE EUROPEAN SUITES HAVE THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THEN WEST AS
THEIR SOLUTIONS SPEED THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SE STATES CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER TOO FAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN AND
MOVE AROUND THE HIGH TO THE WEST. HERE...TIMING IS EVERYTHING. BUT
ALAS...THINGS LOOK OK FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. WE KNOW THAT THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING MONDAY EVENING
AND LAST A FEW DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM HERE. THE
ONLY POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM HAVING EVEN A REMOTE AFFECT ON THIS
AREA WOULD BE IF IT DEVELOPS AND MEANDERS AROUND THE GULF FOR A DAY
OR TWO WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD.

EVENTUALLY...THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING WEST WILL GRADUALLY
START SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME TS ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS PAST THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SAT JUN 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090627 1800 090628 0600 090628 1800 090629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 87.3W 21.0N 88.7W 22.0N 89.7W 22.4N 90.4W
BAMD 19.9N 87.3W 21.2N 88.4W 22.2N 89.7W 22.9N 90.5W
BAMM 19.9N 87.3W 21.1N 88.4W 22.1N 89.5W 22.7N 90.2W
LBAR 19.9N 87.3W 21.2N 88.5W 22.3N 89.7W 23.4N 90.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090629 1800 090630 1800 090701 1800 090702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.8N 90.9W 22.9N 92.0W 23.5N 94.3W 24.6N 97.6W
BAMD 23.2N 91.1W 23.3N 91.5W 23.5N 92.0W 24.4N 92.7W
BAMM 23.0N 90.8W 23.1N 91.5W 23.6N 92.9W 24.5N 95.1W
LBAR 24.0N 90.7W 25.2N 89.5W 27.2N 86.2W 31.0N 80.2W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 60KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.9N LONCUR = 87.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 84.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Hola peeps, my prediction a few months back was for the first system was a sheared TS into SW FLorida or West coast of Florida sometime the end of June. Let's see if that happens.

I'm in Europe right now sailing through the Mediterranean so will not be checking the progress on this area too frequently but looks like there is something to talk about in the tropics. Looks like a decent shot of alot more rain for Florida.

[hurricanefloyd5]

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

Putting the disclaimer in because I tend to agree with this. Boy, am I ever learning a lot from you folks!! Thanks so much for all the education.

I thought I'd share some of the discussion from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA, 1053 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009


.MARINE...
HAVE LOOKED AT MANY DIFFERENT NATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING TO GET A
BEARING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL BE IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE FOUND SOME
CLUES THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON AND SOME THAT NONE AGREE ON.
REGARDLESS TO SAY...IN THE SHORT TERM THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEST...AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF(BAY OF CAMPECHE). ANOTHER IS
DEVELOPING NORTH BY NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE ONE OF
THESE TWO PATHS ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF. BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH
PATH THE MAIN ONE TAKES...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE OTHER DEEP MOISTURE BRANCH AS WELL. GFS HAS
THE MAIN FEATURE MOVING NORTH THEN NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ETA ALONG WITH
THE EUROPEAN SUITES HAVE THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THEN WEST AS
THEIR SOLUTIONS SPEED THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SE STATES CAUSING THE
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER TOO FAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN AND
MOVE AROUND THE HIGH TO THE WEST. HERE...TIMING IS EVERYTHING. BUT
ALAS...THINGS LOOK OK FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. WE KNOW THAT THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING MONDAY EVENING
AND LAST A FEW DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM HERE. THE
ONLY POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM HAVING EVEN A REMOTE AFFECT ON THIS
AREA WOULD BE IF IT DEVELOPS AND MEANDERS AROUND THE GULF FOR A DAY
OR TWO WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD.

EVENTUALLY...THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING WEST WILL GRADUALLY
START SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME TS ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS PAST THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009



MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS) MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WEST TO SW FLOW THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STRONG NRN STREAM MID/UPR LVL TROUGHS KEEP NRN STREAM
WRLIES SUPPRESSES SWD INTO THE CONUS...WHICH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
HGHTS AND GENERAL SFC TROUGHINESS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE SERN CONUS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHCS AS SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED NWD RETURN
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE GFS DOING SO BY FRI...HOWEVER THE
00Z ECM KEEPS THE WRLIES IN PLACE THRU NEXT SUNDAY! WOULDN`T BE AT
ALL SURPRISED TO SEE PERSISTENCE WIN OUT. IN ANY EVENT...THE NEXT 7
DAYS LOOK RATHER HOT/HUMID WITH DECENT RAIN CHCS EACH AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS SOLN OF BRINGING A TROPICAL SYS NWD
OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN NNE/NE ACROSS NORTH FL...WHILE NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...LOOKS UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT DISORGANIZED
STATE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IRRESPECTIVE OF WHETHER OR NOT A
COHERENT TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASCD WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO ROUND THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 23-24N AND RIDE UP INTO FL...THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHCS
ABOVE WHAT WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FCST FOR MON/TUE. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO LKLY FOR BOTH DAYS. OTRW...WILL RUN MAINLY WITH 50% COVERAGE.

[MGC]

I doubt 93L does much till at least Monday if then. I just hope it continues northward and brings me some rain......MGC

[hurricanefloyd5]

Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.


Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

edited by vbhoutex to add quote

[Derek Ortt]

has the TCPOD been released yet?

[cycloneye]

has the TCPOD been released yet?

Not yet.Lets see if pojo comes and tell us the latest plans.

I posted this on page 10.

The Tropical Cyclone Plan of the day (TCPOD) for today still has not been released at this hour (12:00 PM EDT) .IMO,they are waiting for more organization and at the same time they may be doing the coordination for the future missions,if they ever get off the ground.

[Derek Ortt]

outflow boundaries...

I am questioning the surface convergence charts with this system. We would see this much convergence when we have multiple outflow boundaries

[HURAKAN]

Not much here.