ATL : INVEST 93L

[Aric Dunn]

ene wind at belize city
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

[Derek Ortt]

if that UL moves north instead of SW, conditions wont be as favorable. Would favor a sheared mess

[lrak]

if that UL moves north instead of SW, conditions wont be as favorable. Would favor a sheared mess

I made a smart arse comment a few pages back about one of your posts which you probably didn't notice but I'd like to apologize to you and the community for it. No need for that type of post and I regret it.

lrak aka karl

[HouTXmetro]

cloud tops are really warming

[Aric Dunn]

latest low level convergence.. down a little but still decent


the big change is the vorticity, show a pretty good increase over the last 3 hours !

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

check out Campeche Mexico, low pressure and a hard N wind with no T storms close to the city.

[brunota2003]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

check out Campeche Mexico, low pressure and a hard N wind with no T storms close to the city.

Also look at the history:

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 5 PM (21) Jun 27 84 (29) 69 (21) 29.77 (1008) N 16
4 PM (20) Jun 27 86 (30) 69 (21) 29.79 (1008) N 12
3 PM (19) Jun 27 87 (31) 68 (20) 29.82 (1009) N 13
2 PM (18) Jun 27 87 (31) 68 (20) 29.83 (1010) NNW 12
1 PM (17) Jun 27 86 (30) 69 (21) 29.83 (1010) WNW 10
Noon (16) Jun 27 86 (30) 69 (21) 29.85 (1010) ESE 7
11 AM (15) Jun 27 82 (28) 69 (21) 29.85 (1010) S 2

Nice wind shift, no? Maybe a sea breeze or outflow? Judging by the pressure drop, wind shift, and Temperature drop.

[lrak]

yeah it looks like a seabreeze front. Along the s tex coast ours hits around 3pm and the winds pick up by 10 or 15mph. The pressure is really low though.

[brunota2003]

Approaching or storms developing nearby could drop the pressure, couldnt they?

[StormTracker]

Hi all!!! Just been looking, listening, & learning for the last week as I always do at the beginning of the season, BUT, I have a very strong gut feeling, that this thing is getting ready to ramp up and eventually become ANA!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Nimbus]

Dropping surface pressure and lots of convection but still no signs of inflow on the last visible shots.

[cycloneye]

Getting dark but here is the latest visible pic.

[Cookie]

havening just caught up from page 6. what are they chances of development in the next 24 and 48 hrs?

[Lurker]

NHC had it at code orange as of 2 PM (30-50%). Some of the mets on this board are thinking lower.

Edit: Down to Yellow at 8. Pro Mets called it......

havening just caught up from page 6. what are they chances of development in the next 24 and 48 hrs?

[Cookie]

I've got to remember the time difference

[ronjon]

Extremely favorable 200 mb pattern setting up over the south-central GOM the next few days with an upper level high setting up. Both NAM and GFS forecast very favorable conditions north of the Yucatan peninsula.

[senorpepr]

ABNT20 KNHC 272333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

So down to code yellow..

[senorpepr]

Blah... "code yellow" is so... greatone-ish.

[Aric Dunn]

Blah... "code yellow" is so... greatone-ish.

lol ...
well it is a different forecaster this time ..