ATL : INVEST 93L

[xironman]

Actually I thought I saw an eddy about here, but it was probably just my eyes playing tricks.

[HouTXmetro]

The NHC places a low NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

WNW at Campeche for a while now!

seems to be trying to do something right today!

[RL3AO]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

WNW at Campeche for a while now!

seems to be trying to do something right today!

Could just be a sea breeze.

[wxman57]

Here's a current sfc analysis with satellite. No "low" over the Yucatan, just a wave axis. I do see a weak spin in the low-level clouds near 22.5N/91W as indicated on the map. Nothing that'll last, though.

[meteorologyman]

The system has a very slim chance of development. However whether it does or not it will certainly mean a lof of rain for Florida once again. one month ago many areas in FL saw 8-15 inches of rain with isolated 2ft. With Tropical Low, front, seabreeze, humidity, and heat we are looking at some wet days.

[cycloneye]

TAFB has a low north of Yucatan at the 18 UTC surface analysis.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[brunota2003]

I think that is the surface eddy the pro mets have been pointing out and expect to dissipate fairly quickly.

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

Campeche Mexico still has a strong WNW wind and the pressure dropped again, and the wind was out of the north yesterday? Is the normal seabreeze from the wnw?

[meteorologyman]

[quote="cycloneye"]TAFB has a low north of Yucatan at the 18 UTC surface analysis.

since this is a surface analysis does that mean the low has reached to the surface or is it still a mid level low? I want to make sure I am reading the map right

[BigA]

For Campeche to have a WNW wind, it would mean that the low would have to be to its NNE (I think) which would make sense from the eddy.

I doubt this thing will develop, but the shear is still low in the Gulf, and waters are warm, so no need to write it off, but it probably isn't invest-worthy anymore.

Gulf shear http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... gmxshr.gif

[meteorologyman]

Well let me just say I am not dissapointed with this storm. I rather be tracking this rather than a monster in carribean/gulf.

[cycloneye]

TAFB has a low north of Yucatan at the 18 UTC surface analysis.

since this is a surface analysis does that mean the low has reached to the surface or is it still a mid level low? I want to make sure I am reading the map right

1011 mb surface low.

[meteorologyman]

Thankyou Luis for clarifying that for me

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html

still WSW in Campeche Mexico and the pressure is not rising.

[Nederlander]

looking pretty pathetic today... although i just checked the latest IR loop and its got some decent convection flaring up on the western side of the Yuc

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[cycloneye]

Invest will be dropped.It was a good test run for what lies ahead when things really will turn active.

322
ABNT20 KNHC 282332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[senorpepr]

Completely off topic, but the Hurricane Hunters had a chance to fly around the N - NE GoM today. Several RECCOs coming through the wire and a few drops...


Coordinates: 28.0N 86.9W
Location: 168 miles (270 km) to the SSW (206°) from Panama City, FL, USA.

[Nederlander]

TVCN is a consensus model