Global model runs discussion

[BigA]

The 00 GFS run continues to show the same low becoming a tropical depression. Its still at least 4 days out though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 00 GFS run continues to show the same low becoming a tropical depression. Its still at least 4 days out though.

Probably a storm, per the GFS, in a week, and headed WNW, maybe towards the Northeast Caribbean.




If we assume 500 mb winds are an approximation of steering, if there is a storm out there, and the GFS is correct, this could be a feature to watch in the Caribbean.



Canadian, not much,

NOGAPS,a nice looking wave off Africa, a little slower than GFS, at hour 144, with an anticyclone right over the top.

Euro, while having little surface reflection, shows a nice 850 mb vort max in the same general area as NOGAPS. Best I can tell from ECMWF site, nothing susbstantial develops.

Interesting that 2 runs of the GFS develop this, and before the 180 hour resolution lobotomy. NOGAPS sort of on board, Canadian and Euro, not so much. Again, the GFS keeps it below 10ºN to escape the death dagger shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the GFS persists a couple more runs on a TC within a week, and has some kind of model support, maybe on Thursday I'll start a brand new exciting thread.

Like the Western Caribbean thread that, as far as I know, still isn't locked.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS in general agreement with 0Z GFS

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO is showing a big area in the Westcentral Caribbean after day 7.It has shown this in the past 3 runs.

12z ECMWF

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z EURO is showing a big area in the Westcentral Caribbean after day 7.It has shown this in the past 3 runs.

12z ECMWF

Hard to tell with the poor display resolution (of the global model with the highest grid scale resolution), but I think that is just a wind surge, probably produced by the South American heat low which cranks early in the Summer.

It is one of the factors that makes the Southern Caribbean usually hostile to tropical systems until later in the "prime" of the hurricane season - it whips waves through the Caribbean quickly, reduces convergence offshore, and increases effective shear.

[cycloneye]

A powerful hurricane in the Eastern Pacific is what the EURO shows after 7 days.

12z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

The Canadian model is turning a bit more bullish in the EPAC and in the Tropical Atlantic.CMC joins the EURO about the powerful hurricane in the EPAC.See loop below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

ECM is consistant with regards to the EPAC and deveoping a system out of it. It did quite poorly with Td 1E but did a pretty good job with Andres in the end.

Still its certainy picking up on something brewing, needs watching, could be our next area of interest in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

CMC,EURO,NOGAPS and GFS are developing a EPAC system.some more stronger than others.

Maybe the birth may come from this spin at 90W.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Macrocane]

Canadian, Euro and NOGAPS are showing development in EPAC in about 5-6 days. The Canadian and Euro are predicting two tropical cyclones will form with the Euro being very bullish with one of them. I think that development is very possible, models have been very consistent and it seems that conditions will be favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.

[KWT]

Thats a very obvious spin there cycloneye, I think our next EPAC invest must be pretty close by and given the models are bullish I suspect we have a good shot at seeing our second named system from this region.

[cycloneye]

GFS shows for the first time a bit more stronger low off the East U.S. Coast.It joins the EURO,NOGAPS on this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS shows for the first time a bit more stronger low off the East U.S. Coast.It joins the EURO,NOGAPS on this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

Looking at the PSU 4 square map of the GFS, it is under about 60 knots of shear, and along a frontal boundary 6 and 7 days out.

[cycloneye]

If and is a big if,a low forms off the coast,it would be a cold core origin,meaning shear will not be too detrimental vs warm core ones.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If and is a big if,a low forms off the coast,it would be a cold core origin,meaning shear will not be too detrimental vs warm core ones.

It would be a frontal Nor'Easter type low, the warm Gulf waters may give it some extra boost, but it won't be tropical or probably even sub-tropical, if I had to guess.



Well, if it winds up enough, and the low on the occlusion gets left behind over the Gulf Stream as the stronger upper winds pull out, something could develop, slowly, in a tropical way.

1980's Hurricane Charley, which almost looked sub-tropical even as a hurricane...

[Macrocane]

It has been a long time since models were in such a good agreement about tropical development in EPAC.

[Macrocane]

It's not aout of case that a tropical cyclone will form in about 6-8 days but now the models are less bullish (except for the Canadian). Euro and NOGAPS shows two cyclones.

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC is hinting of a homegrown system off the Carolinas for next week.The EURO has for the past runs shown that scenario.

[KWT]

We have seen these develop before, esp in El Nino seasons, and so whilst unlikely its not impossible by any means.