Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[gatorcane]

88F showing up now off the SW Coast of FL. There's been a general lack of rain in this area of the coastal waters with plentiful sunshine to warm the SSTs.

[BigA]

Neat map Gatorcane! Where did you find it?

GOM and western Atlantic have warmed rapidly in the past few weeks, but the eastern Atlantic remains cooler than 2005-2008.

[gatorcane]

Neat map Gatorcane! Where did you find it?

GOM and western Atlantic have warmed rapidly in the past few weeks, but the eastern Atlantic remains cooler than 2005-2008.

It's maintained by NWS Miami office as part of the MesoAnalysis graphics. Here is the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=SST

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the SST's from June 2005 & 2009. To me it looks more like an El Nino in 2005 then today. As for the MDR. It is definitely warmer in 2005 then today.
2http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif005

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2009.gif

[wxman57]

Looking at the SST's from June 2005 & 2009. To me it looks more like an El Nino in 2005 then today. As for the MDR. It is definitely warmer in 2005 then today.
2http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif005

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2009.gif

In 2005, the Nino 3.4 region was at about +0.6C vs about the same today. However, in 2005, the SSTs were dropping fast. Today, the temps in the Pacific are rising fast - leading to an El Nino during peak season. I think that on the next update, Klotzbach/Gray may drop their numbers to 10, since there is a good chance we won't see any named storms in the Atlantic until August.

[jinftl]

Given that most early season development takes place in the gulf or sw caribbean....both of which are at or approaching bathwater....what makes you think no development until august, esp if looking at water temps as a basis. Latest TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for those regions are looking impressive in the usual spots.

What conditions would bar development close to home for the next 6+ weeks categorically?

Looking at the SST's from June 2005 & 2009. To me it looks more like an El Nino in 2005 then today. As for the MDR. It is definitely warmer in 2005 then today.
2http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif005

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2009.gif

In 2005, the Nino 3.4 region was at about +0.6C vs about the same today. However, in 2005, the SSTs were dropping fast. Today, the temps in the Pacific are rising fast - leading to an El Nino during peak season. I think that on the next update, Klotzbach/Gray may drop their numbers to 10, since there is a good chance we won't see any named storms in the Atlantic until August.

[cheezyWXguy]

Given that most early season development takes place in the gulf or sw caribbean....both of which are at or approaching bathwater....what makes you think no development until august, esp if looking at water temps as a basis. Latest TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for those regions are looking impressive in the usual spots.

What conditions would bar development close to home for the next 6+ weeks categorically?

Looking at the SST's from June 2005 & 2009. To me it looks more like an El Nino in 2005 then today. As for the MDR. It is definitely warmer in 2005 then today.
2http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif005

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2009.gif

In 2005, the Nino 3.4 region was at about +0.6C vs about the same today. However, in 2005, the SSTs were dropping fast. Today, the temps in the Pacific are rising fast - leading to an El Nino during peak season. I think that on the next update, Klotzbach/Gray may drop their numbers to 10, since there is a good chance we won't see any named storms in the Atlantic until August.

shear, dry air, etc...usually more shear in el nino seasons than other years. Therefore, through high shear, less storms will develop. I dont know how strong SAL is supposed to be this year, but if there's any at all, it will probably lower formation chances further. I personally think we'll see a named storm by mid july, but I can see why there's a possibility that it might not happen till august

[cycloneye]

Look how the GOM warms in a rapid pace with that high pressure parked there causing lack of clouds.

[poof121]

Apparently this is normal though, with the anomalies (except in the BOC) mostly near 0 or slightly negative.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I expect SSTs in the low to possibly mid 90s around parts of Florida.
Temperatures will be in the upper 90s close to the coast
for the next 3 days and have been for the past 3 days.

[HouTXmetro]

Waters right off the upper TX coast are in the low to mid 90's. My Question again is with the High parked over the Gulf shouldn't the anomilies be even higher? I mean I don't recall the last time our area went 28 days with no rain and nothing but sun.

[cycloneye]

The latest sst data suggest that warming is taking place in many areas of the basin,including parts of the Eastern Atlantic and the MDR.If I can guess why the warming,is because of the weaker high in the Atlantic,causing less upwelling.

[cpdaman]

in regard to the warming el nino esque trend water of the pacific

do most years with the nino have cooler atlantic water......cause the water's have warmed nicely in the atlantic thanks to i guess the absense of a decent bermuda high.......

i must say it has been baking hot and humid in SE coastal florida.....with light winds for about 2 weeks (cept today) that must do wonders for water temps here

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the warmest waters are in the Western Gulf if I'm reading that map right.

[jinftl]

Most of the basin has normal to above normal sea temps....no areas of significant below normal temps anywhere...area around Cape Verde is now above normal....note the amazing anomalies in the Canadian maritime waters....wow

[KWT]

Looks like a cooler version of 2006, I've heard that those sorts of temp profiles tend to mean higher shear in the Atlantic.

[vbhoutex]

Current SST at Galveston as of yesterday- 92ºf.

[ROCK]

Current SST at Galveston as of yesterday- 92ºf.

yep and my pool is around 95F...thats hot tub water....something has got to give.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Emmett_Brown]

Many are saying that the Atlantic MDR is cooler than normal. I am not a pro met, but looking at the map below, I am not seeing the large extent of cool water that some have mentioned. Am I missing something?

[wxman57]

Many are saying that the Atlantic MDR is cooler than normal. I am not a pro met, but looking at the map below, I am not seeing the large extent of cool water that some have mentioned. Am I missing something?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/natl_sst_oper0.png

That's because you're looking at an SST analysis chart and not an anomaly chart. Check below. See all the O to -1C anomalies east of the Caribbean and even into the eastern Caribbean? Note that the core of warmer anomalies are north of 20N?