ATL : INVEST 94L

[tropicana]

i refuse to get excited for any more false starts.

-justin-

[Sanibel]

Maybe this storm will break the ice.

[Cookie]

I think they're bored.

Just an opinion...

post of the month

[littlevince]

I really don't understand the "bored" stuff.
This was a nice looking system all night:



In the morning, visible (9z) looked far away for a "bored" stuff:



Water in the region are warmer than usual. In the 48 hours potential path there are islands where many people live.
What is the surprise or strange think with this Invest ? It's just an invest, a system under investigation.
Was it a wrong decision? I don't think so ! Shear has splitting it apart during the day, ok, but that happens many others times.

[wxman57]

SSTs in the lower 70s and dropping fast now in its path. From the looks of it on satellite this morning, and from QS data, it would have been classified a TD if it had been any threat to land this morning. But it's now past its peak and weakening.

[cycloneye]

Avila literally says adios to it

143
ABNT20 KNHC 042333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907042354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 942009.ren

[thetruesms]

It's funny because it's true.

But srsly, I agree with wxman, littlevince, and whoever else was of similar opinion that I'm not mentioning - there were definitely some good reasons to keep a dedicated eye on this. Did it have a real great shot? No, but just imagine the backlash the other way if conditions became magically favorable and it caught everyone with their pants down. It's not like they created a situation where people felt obligated to throw up TS warnings on a moment's notice - it was just an invest.

Why did that last sentence remind me of Clerks? Hey, try not to issue any invests on your way through the parking lot!

[littlevince]

94L was discontinued, please correct if I'm wrong, but maybe is not dead yet, I think it established a new center:





ASCAT (23:53z)




Last visible (10:45z)

[littlevince]

[cycloneye]

That is the 94E best track data not for 94L.

[littlevince]

:uarrow: That is the 94E best track data not for 94L.

Sorry. My mistake. I removed it.

[HURAKAN]

Ex. 94L is giving us another chance to have something to watch as the lull continues.

[Cyclone1]

Looks much better than it did.

[HURAKAN]

I don't know why the NHC didn't mention it in the TWO.

[Derek Ortt]

we also didn't mention it either in the nwhhc outlook

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Still looks good.

[Aric Dunn]

well considering that convection has wrapped completely around the center .. and on the latest IR the center is very evident with cooler cloud tops surrounding a slightly warm Center ( not an eye ).. i would say that this is at the moment our first named system .. lol but hey who am i to say.. lol

if convection re-fires with this present organization the NHC will have to upgrade it..