Global model runs discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tonights GFS shows a very strong tropical wave, almost a depression, in just 15 days.

Probably not going to happen, but if it does, it needs to not get named before July 21st...

[knotimpaired]

The 00 GFS run continues to show the same low becoming a tropical depression. Its still at least 4 days out though.

Probably a storm, per the GFS, in a week, and headed WNW, maybe towards the Northeast Caribbean.




If we assume 500 mb winds are an approximation of steering, if there is a storm out there, and the GFS is correct, this could be a feature to watch in the Caribbean.



Canadian, not much,

NOGAPS,a nice looking wave off Africa, a little slower than GFS, at hour 144, with an anticyclone right over the top.

Euro, while having little surface reflection, shows a nice 850 mb vort max in the same general area as NOGAPS. Best I can tell from ECMWF site, nothing susbstantial develops.

Interesting that 2 runs of the GFS develop this, and before the 180 hour resolution lobotomy. NOGAPS sort of on board, Canadian and Euro, not so much. Again, the GFS keeps it below 10ºN to escape the death dagger shear.

Wake me up Luis when it is a day away. We go through this every year about this time.

[cycloneye]

Wake me up Luis when it is a day away. We go through this every year about this time.

Yes,that is the drill every year.The models change constantly their scenarios,so stay tuned as when and if there is a model consensus,then we will have to pay attention.

[knotimpaired]

That is why we here in the caribbean basin consider you one of our best friends.

You watch our backs

[Ed Mahmoud]

That is why we here in the Caribbean basin consider you one of our best friends.

You watch our backs

Paradise, palm trees, warm Caribbean waters, but with the danger always lurking. But you have rum distilleries. Although I heard the governor of one of the USVI used tax breaks and an offer to build a factory to steal Captain Morgan from Puerto Rico.

But the sea breezes probably keep you from endless days of 100ºF (38º) in the Summer, although they make Christmas snow miracles unlikely.

BTW, the italics around "just" in just 15 days away was a clue to the wise I wasn't exactly excited.

[knotimpaired]

It did get down to 62 in Feb. of 2005.

[Ola]

:lol:

It did get down to 62 in Feb. of 2005.

That must be an all time low record for Vieques I bet.

[cycloneye]

Please,lets concentrate on the models here and not use the thread to chat.There is a thread for current observations and forecasts for Puerto Rico / Eastern Caribbean at Weather Attic forum.

Link to Caribbean thread at Weather Attic.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&p=1338363#p1338363

[Ed Mahmoud]

Please,lets concentrate on the models here and not use the thread to chat.There is a thread for current observations and forecasts for Puerto Rico / Eastern Caribbean at Weather Attic forum.

Link to Caribbean thread at Weather Attic.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&p=1338363#p1338363

Good point. Especially when Vieques, the rest of Puerto Rico and the USVI and Sant Maarten may be only a little over two weeks away from a tropical depression bearing down.

Or not.

[knotimpaired]

We skirted what was about a 40-50 mile line of red on the radar approaching the island and when it hit the south coast it broke apart and hit hard the east and west side of the island.

We were actually looking forward to the rain we thought we would get. Culebra apparently got slammed by MJ will tell you about that,

[cycloneye]

The EURO has a closed low at days 9-10 off Africa.See animation below.

12z ECMWF Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

The EURO has a closed low at days 9-10 off Africa.See animation below.

12z ECMWF Animation

That is a pretty unimpressive low. Could be the GFS 15 day depression/almost a depression.

GFS Day 10



Sort of, kind of, 2 models seeing something similar?

[knotimpaired]

We sit here and watch the lightning and hear the boomers. Culebra must be getting hammered. Big time.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread at weather attic forum to post observations in the Caribbean.This thread is for model runs.

Link to thread at weather attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&p=1890317#p1890317

[knotimpaired]

That information is all and good but if you are watching what we are, you would not dismis this as a pop-up.

[BigA]

The very long range GFS (9.5-15 days) creates a pretty solid system right off the African coast, moves it westward all the way to the Antilles.

While the low forms at 228 hours, and is therefore fantasyland, it may be relevant that at least the GFS sees the MDR as at least moderately favorable in the 10 day timeframe

[Meso]

Very long out, yes... But that's what the threads for amirite.

Two or three runs in a row now the GFS is convinced on a strong wave coming off Africa in around 200 hours from now. The low then tracks westward for about a week strengthening near the end.

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical storm north of Hispanola.

Caviat=16 days out.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS=Caviat,is 16 days out.More models into this and I will be a believer.For now I am in the skeptical camp.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS phantom cane in 2 weeks near miss on Vieques, before beginning a recurve.

Phantom East Coast trough in 15 days should be just enough to recurve the phantom tropical storm (hurricane?) and spare the US.

Bermuda? Well, the model doesn't go out that far.




ETA: A strong storm on a global model with half the resolution after Hour 180 is probably a hurricane.

Of course, if I were a betting man, I'd give 4:1 odds there is no tropical cyclone anywhere near the Lesser (or Greater) Antilles in 2 weeks.