#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:25 am
Special Advisory for newly formed Tropical Storm Blanca
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 061225
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009
...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...
AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
WTPZ23 KNHC 061222
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
1230 UTC MON JUL 06 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 06/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 06/1230Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.2W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
087
WTPZ43 KNHC 061238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E
IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD
REACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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