Florida Keys may ease hurricane-evacuation policy

[senorpepr]

Florida Keys may ease hurricane-evacuation policy

With better forecasting and communications, emergency managers consider easing up on evacuating tourists for every hurricane threat.

BY CURTIS MORGAN AND JOSHUA JOHNSON

Twice last year, tens of thousands of visitors were ordered to leave the Florida Keys when far-off tropical storms threatened. Both Fay and Ike wound up as little more than blustery side-swipes.

This year, Monroe County may not be as quick to pull the evacuation trigger.

While they stress public safety remains top priority, the county's emergency management chief and top administrator are considering tweaking the long-standing policy of ordering visitors to pack up every time the Keys fall into the National Hurricane Center's dreaded ``cone of uncertainty.''

Instead, they want to make that often-difficult call storm-by-storm, weighing not just the projected path but the potential severity of a strike to an island chain particularly vulnerable to damage from powerful storms.

''If we have the exact same year, the exact same storms coming from the same exact directions, this year we'd probably have one less evacuation,'' said Roman Gastesi Jr., Monroe's top administrator.

While impacts to the Keys' tourist-driven economy are a concern, Gastesi and Irene Toner, the county's director of emergency management, said they aren't the primary factors for rethinking the Keys' evacuation policies. They point to better forecasting, better communications with emergency managers in Miami-Dade and Broward and better construction codes in the Keys as safety buffers for residents and tourists that did not exist years ago.

''We're not saying we're not going to ask them to leave,'' Toner said. ``What we're just saying is we may be more flexible. We will look at it a little closer before we make the final call to go.''

While no formal recommendations have been made, Gastesi said he intends to discuss changes to the mandatory evacuation policy with Monroe County commissioners later this month. They could allow visitors the option of riding out at least some approaching storms -- but only storms with slim chances of strengthening beyond Category 1 or likely to brush the Keys with minimal damage.

Gastesi pointed to Fay last August as an example. It was projected to hit the Keys as a tropical storm, with a slight chance of growing into a Category 1 hurricane. Tourists were asked to leave two days before its projected strike and it later shifted south, sparing the Keys any serious damage.

''A Category 1, I frankly think we could probably survive that pretty easily,'' Gastesi said.

Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, said though forecasters brief emergency officials and post hurricane watches and warnings, it's up to local officials to make evacuation calls.

While evacuations are a no-brainer in major hurricanes, emergency managers in many coastal communities struggle with the call, particularly in storms expected to be of lesser intensity.

They're costly for businesses and governments. Last year, Key West Mayor Morgan McPherson estimated the southernmost city alone lost about $1.5 million a day during an evacuation. If a storm fizzles or turns, the public also may not cooperate as well next time.

The decision is more complex and critical in the Keys. Some 75,000 residents and typically tens of thousands of visitors stay on the string of small, low-lying islands.

There is only one road out, the 128-mile Overseas Highway. It has two lanes much of the way, some sections flood during storms and a wreck on any of 42 bridges can knot traffic for hours.

Make the call too late and evacuees could be stuck on perilously exposed roads or run into gridlock as they exit the 18-mile stretch of U.S. 1, if South Miami-Dade is also under the gun.

Monroe's threshold for issuing a general mandatory evacuation, affecting all residents, is a Category 3 hurricane but emergency managers will urge residents in mobile homes, boats and low-lying areas to leave for any hurricane. For visitors, the call comes at least 24 hours ahead of any other evacuation orders.

Andy Newman, spokesman for the Florida Keys Tourist Development Council, said discussions of a possible change in evacuations have been preliminary only, and businesses are more concerned about the welfare of visitors than the bottom line.

''Certainly, you have to balance the safety and economic impacts, but safety is always the priority,'' he said.

The policies are less likely to affect native ''Conchs'' and other longtime residents, though Toner admits it's a challenge to get many of the Keys' famously laid-back residents to consider evacuating for even major storms.

Few people are around who recall the hurricane of 1935 that killed more than 400 people, sweeping rail cars from a track later replaced by the Overseas Highway, but Hurricane Ike last year hardly registers, either, she said. That storm, once heading for the Keys, changed course and wound up flattening Galveston.

''People remember it temporarily,'' she said. ``The sun is shining, the sky is blue, everybody is fishing and they forget about it.''

[srainhoutx]

Interesting news from Monroe County. Many in the Hospitality industry have been pushing for this for some time. With tourism being the #1 industry in the Keys, many "locals" will be happy with this development. Let's just hope that the right call is made when a real threat happens.

[gatorcane]

''A Category 1, I frankly think we could probably survive that pretty easily,'' Gastesi said.

I wonder about a CAT 2 hurricane? Even a CAT 1 hurricane going through the Keys can do some considerable damage and could easily threaten lives, especially tourists who may not be experienced with these types of systems. I personally have witnessed the effects of a moderate Tropical Storm impacting the Upper Keys, where the tropical storm was at least 75 miles away from the Keys, and with nothing to stop the wind ripping across the Atlantic from the SE, the wind was pretty amazing I must admit.

Even a typical summer thunderstorm (usually a nocturnal occurrence in the Keys) can create winds up to 60mph in the Keys with nothing obstructing the windflow. I was in Islamorada about 1 month ago and witnessed a strong thunderstorm that developed around midnight. The wind was unbelievable considering it was just a thunderstorm. I estimated 40mph sustained with 50+mph gusts. It really looked like a tropical storm I must admit.

I could not even imagine what a CAT 1 and especially a CAT 2 hurricane would do to the Keys.

[HURAKAN]

Good news and bad news. Good news because it's true that in most cases it's a close call and nothing happens but the keys lose thousands or millions in tourism. Bad news because when they get a storm that intensifies very quickly when its gets close to the keys (aka 1935 hurricane), people are going to find themselves trapped with the water rising very quickly.

[x-y-no]

Well, one could make an argument regarding Fay, but it would have been insanity not to evacuate for Ike at the time the decision had to be made.

[hawkeh]

''A Category 1, I frankly think we could probably survive that pretty easily,'' Gastesi said.

Yeah they need to be careful with that line of thinking. I'm sure the keys could make it through due to the strict building code there and all but a strengthening category 1 cane is no joke.

[Derek Ortt]

A hurricane is a hurricane is a hurricane

[wxman57]

A major problem is that evacuation calls need to be made 2-3 days before impact. Given the considerable amount of uncertainty in both track and intensity forecasts that far out, they're just going to have to put up with some "unnecessary evacuations" in the Keys. Yes, Ike did turn away about 24-36 hours prior to possible impact in the Keys. But given the uncertainty in Ike's track (and the fact that it was a 145 mph Cat 4 at the time), I don't think it was a bad call to evacuate the Keys. If Ike hadn't kept moving W-WSW into Cuba then many who stayed in the Keys would have died.

[vbhoutex]

My concern is the thinking of "we can survive a Category 1 or 2 easily". Texas recently had a Category 2 Hurricane that destroyed entire communities due to surge normally associated with a Category 4 storm. I understand the need for a balance,and the fact that the offshore topography is different in the keys(in some places), but imo they are toying with disaster.

[Derek Ortt]

My concern is the thinking of "we can survive a Category 1 or 2 easily". Texas recently had a Category 2 Hurricane that destroyed entire communities due to surge normally associated with a Category 4 storm. I understand the need for a balance,and the fact that the offshore topography is different in the keys(in some places), but imo they are toying with disaster.

a cat 1 coming from the east is survivable. A cat 1 from the west is suicide. Florida Bay is about 2 feet deep in most places

[Ed Mahmoud]

People do cost versus benefit analysis all the time.


The benefit is extra tourist dollars by relaxing the rules on sending the tourists away.


But one intensity forecast a little off from a couple of days off, within the current margin of error, could have a very steep cost.

[Cookie]

I personally don't think their should be any easing of any evacuation policy's

[DanKellFla]

My concern is the thinking of "we can survive a Category 1 or 2 easily". Texas recently had a Category 2 Hurricane that destroyed entire communities due to surge normally associated with a Category 4 storm. I understand the need for a balance,and the fact that the offshore topography is different in the keys(in some places), but imo they are toying with disaster.

a cat 1 coming from the east is survivable. A cat 1 from the west is suicide. Florida Bay is about 2 feet deep in most places

Does Monroe County use a metorologist to help make the call of when to evacuate? I sure hope so.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My concern is the thinking of "we can survive a Category 1 or 2 easily". Texas recently had a Category 2 Hurricane that destroyed entire communities due to surge normally associated with a Category 4 storm. I understand the need for a balance,and the fact that the offshore topography is different in the keys(in some places), but imo they are toying with disaster.

a cat 1 coming from the east is survivable. A cat 1 from the west is suicide. Florida Bay is about 2 feet deep in most places

Does Monroe County use a metorologist to help make the call of when to evacuate? I sure hope so.

I was under the impression that before NHC issues warnings, they have a coordination conference call with local NWS offices in the threatened area and emergency managers, and discuss in detail what the expected threats and timelines are.

So local EMS has both NHC mets and local mets advising. I know, from watching a documentary, Max Mayfield personally called Mayor Nagin in New Orleans before Katrina to tell him "the Big One" was coming. BTW, as bad as Katrina was, over a thousand dead, it could have been worse.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Of course, I also heard the mayor of Galveston make excuses for the rather late order to evacuate Galveston Island by referring to a single NHC forecast issued the Monday or Tuesday before Ike made landfall that showed the skinny black line down near Corpus Christi.



IE, emergency management types may be given the best and most up to date information possible, and may still not act prudently.

[CrazyC83]

Good points regarding the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. It was only a Category 1 hurricane barely 24 hours before landfall - even today that would be an evacuation nightmare.

I don't think too many people would evacuate even if ordered if a Cat 1 was on their doorstep - and they wake up and find something growing into a monster (eventually bottoming out as a strong Cat 5) and it is too late...that would have been the similar nightmare if Wilma went into her explosive deepening just before landfall.

[cpdaman]

I think ED M has it right ......this is about $$.....not as much greed as preservation..of some type of economy down there IMO....

The article pretty much even mentions so.....losing tourist $ for evacuations that can only be deemed unnecessary (reality is they can only be determined unnecessary in HINDSIGHT).....

Who takes the blame when the SHTF scenario occurs and no evacs are ordered or they are at the last minute and people are stranded on the bridge....i guess then they change the policy back........the economic downturn is causing difficult decisions to be weighed by people....and more risks taken.....that's human nature but they do have a good point with Fay last year so long as they only ease the policy when things are near unanimous that a storm will be weak.......and this may be rare since intensity forecasts can be very challenging

p.s The keys was my highest % spot for a disaster before any possible change in evacuation policy due to the laid back nature of the people who have never really seen a strong cane tear thru ....combined with the troublesome backups that can occur on the one road out of the keys...........sure they still say the safety of tourists is their first concern .....ya that's what they probably had to convince their conscience should these talks become more than preliminary.....

[MGC]

This is a disaster waiting to happen...Lets see, Joe Conch, keys resident goes to sleep expecting ONLY a Cat-1 hurricane to pass nearby. Joe Conch thinks he can weather the storm...he has rode out many hurricanes in the past....Georges in 1998, Wilma in 2005. Overnight the unthinkable happens, yep our Cat-1 hurricane has bombed and is now a Cat-4...Old Joe is stuck down in Big Pine Key only slightly above sea level. Joe gets lucky or so he thinks.....the hurricane passes to his east over Bahia Honda Key. Sure the wind and tides were high, but Joe survives. Later that day he hears a rumour that the seven mile bridge is gone. Seems the bridge has met a fate similar to many of the bridges on the Gulf Coast that were destroyed by Ivan and Katrina. Along with the bridge went the water pipes that carry the only supply of water to the lower Keys. Trucks can't reach the lower Keys to bring food. Having had to drink bottled water till Janurary after Katrina I can attest to the hassle this imposes. Poor Joe Conch must rely on MRE's and bottled water till temporary decking is in place on the bridge. Joe was lucky, at least he survived the hurricane, many of his fellow Conchs didn't.

If I were in the Keys and a hurricane was on the way I'd leave ASAP....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

This is a disaster waiting to happen...Lets see, Joe Conch, keys resident goes to sleep expecting ONLY a Cat-1 hurricane to pass nearby. Joe Conch thinks he can weather the storm...he has rode out many hurricanes in the past....Georges in 1998, Wilma in 2005. Overnight the unthinkable happens, yep our Cat-1 hurricane has bombed and is now a Cat-4...Old Joe is stuck down in Big Pine Key only slightly above sea level. Joe gets lucky or so he thinks.....the hurricane passes to his east over Bahia Honda Key. Sure the wind and tides were high, but Joe survives. Later that day he hears a rumour that the seven mile bridge is gone. Seems the bridge has met a fate similar to many of the bridges on the Gulf Coast that were destroyed by Ivan and Katrina. Along with the bridge went the water pipes that carry the only supply of water to the lower Keys. Trucks can't reach the lower Keys to bring food. Having had to drink bottled water till Janurary after Katrina I can attest to the hassle this imposes. Poor Joe Conch must rely on MRE's and bottled water till temporary decking is in place on the bridge. Joe was lucky, at least he survived the hurricane, many of his fellow Conchs didn't.

If I were in the Keys and a hurricane was on the way I'd leave ASAP....MGC

What is more likely is that Joe Conch refuses to leave with a cat 5 heading right at him. Remember, KW had a 20% compliance rate with the mandatory evacuation for Wilma. They don't leave for major hurricanes that just flattened Cancun.

The keys are why more total evacuation orders, as was given in Ivan, are needed

[GeneratorPower]

It's only a matter of time before something bombs out unexpectedly and catches the Keys unprepared. I would hate to see that happen with them full of people.