Disturbance in the Carribean Sea

[drezee]

Heavy rain in Haiti and DR will be a serious problem.

[xironman]

Wind Direction 290 at 21 knots, thunderstorm?

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 1800  15.30  -69.60   79 272  290  21.0     -   6.6  10.0     -   -  29.94 +0.01 

[wxman57]

Wind Direction 290 at 21 knots, thunderstorm?

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 1800  15.30  -69.60   79 272  290  21.0     -   6.6  10.0     -   -  29.94 +0.01 

Actually, just another bad ship report. Ships can be a very bad source of surface data if the instruments aren't maintained or the observer trained in taking an observation. Here's a surface plot showing that ship report. Note how the wind direction is just about 180 deg. off from a nearby buoy. Looks like the observer reported the direction the wind was blowing TO vs. from. And to think that the NHC often uses such obs to justify upgrading TCs...

[floridasun78]

Wind Direction 290 at 21 knots, thunderstorm?

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 1800  15.30  -69.60   79 272  290  21.0     -   6.6  10.0     -   -  29.94 +0.01 

Actually, just another bad ship report. Ships can be a very bad source of surface data if the instruments aren't maintained or the observer trained in taking an observation. Here's a surface plot showing that ship report. Note how the wind direction is just about 180 deg. off from a nearby buoy. Looks like the observer reported the direction the wind was blowing TO vs. from. And to think that the NHC often uses such obs to justify upgrading TCs...

what you see is their weak turn in the area?? from those report

[xironman]

Thx 57,

Yeah, I just like surface observations, I can barely count the number of satellite TC's that have been open waves at the surface since I have been here.

[wxman57]

what you see is their weak turn in the area?? from those report

Huh?

[brunota2003]

what you see is their weak turn in the area?? from those report

Actually, he "sees" nothing in that area other than a bad report, unreliable, untrustworthy, trash, garbage...and provides why it is such in his post.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Seems like somethng could come out of this who knows given the expierence of Dolly last year, models didnt really pick that up until it was around jamaica. Though clearly online communities were tracking it.

But for now its just an open wave with nothing really going for it

[wxman57]

Seems like somethng could come out of this who knows given the expierence of Dolly last year, models didnt really pick that up until it was around jamaica. Though clearly online communities were tracking it.

But for now its just an open wave with nothing really going for it

It's not even an open wave, it's an upper-level trof axis. There are no tropical waves in that part of the Caribbean. It's no Dolly, just scattered thunderstorms in an environment that's not favorable for development.

[cycloneye]

57,TPC at the 8 PM discussion has the wave axis at 75W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD BAND IS OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION STALLS OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[wxman57]

57,TPC at the 8 PM discussion has the wave axis at 75W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD BAND IS OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE NEAR THE
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION STALLS OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

I've been following that wave since Africa and have it at 80W as of 7am today, it's west of there now, along the coast of Honduras. The feature across the central to NE Caribbean is actually a TUTT. I've found that the NHC wave analysis can be very inconsistent from one day to the next. This one is so weak that it doesn't really show up on surface obs, but it does show up on WV imagery and I have a loop going back 6-7 days.

[MGC]

It is easy to get your true and revelant directions messed up when converting a wind ob at sea.....MGC

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Seems like somethng could come out of this who knows given the expierence of Dolly last year, models didnt really pick that up until it was around jamaica. Though clearly online communities were tracking it.

But for now its just an open wave with nothing really going for it

It's not even an open wave, it's an upper-level trof axis. There are no tropical waves in that part of the Caribbean. It's no Dolly, just scattered thunderstorms in an environment that's not favorable for development.

Everybody else seems to be calling it that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mr. Season Cancelled (Ms. Season Cancelled?)


A leading private sector meteorologist added the weighted averages of all his analog hurricane years, more weight for analogs that also fit certain conditions this time of year, like magnitude of El Nino and the such, and came up with 3 tropical cyclone landfalls for the US, 2 of them hurricanes, and 1 of those a major, although his definition of major is not the same as the standard definition.


Now, I think his overall numbers are kind of high, but I'm sure we'll have at least 5 TCs, and almost certainly one will at least threaten the US.

So don't get all huffy because one badly sheared wave has outrun its convection and is headed for the Pacific where conditions for development are much more benign.

[wxman57]

Everybody else seems to be calling it that.

Sometimes a meteorologist will try to convey info to the public in more simplified terms. The public have heard the term "tropical wave" but would be confused by the term "Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trof" (TUTT). In any case, the wave is moving across the Yucatan and southern Mexico today, and there is little convection along the TUTT across the north-central Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

TUTTs are fairly common across the Caribbean in July. They can create fairly hostile conditions suppressing tropical development. Starting in early to mid August or so though, the TUTT tends to move westward and dissipates, leaving behind a better upper-level environment.

Depending upon the strength of el nino though, the upper-level environment may still be hostile even into August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Everybody else seems to be calling it that.

Sometimes a meteorologist will try to convey info to the public in more simplified terms. The public have heard the term "tropical wave" but would be confused by the term "Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trof" (TUTT). In any case, the wave is moving across the Yucatan and southern Mexico today, and there is little convection along the TUTT across the north-central Caribbean.

The local NBC affiliate meteorologist with a broadcast degree and a 60 hour course in 'broadcast meteorology' from Miss State often simplifies the weather so much that even I, a complete amateur, find him embarrassing.

OK, he had 1970s graphics and all, but I miss Dr. Frank.

[wxman57]

The local NBC affiliate meteorologist with a broadcast degree and a 60 hour course in 'broadcast meteorology' from Miss State often simplifies the weather so much that even I, a complete amateur, find him embarrassing.

OK, he had 1970s graphics and all, but I miss Dr. Frank.

I was fortunate enough to visit the legendary Harold Taft at KXAS in Ft. Worth back in the last 1970s. He spent hours preparing his on-air charts. They were giant print-outs of various background maps - the U.S., Texas. Harold used colored chalk to identify all the features. His charts were a work or art. Wish I'd have asked him for one.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The local NBC affiliate meteorologist with a broadcast degree and a 60 hour course in 'broadcast meteorology' from Miss State often simplifies the weather so much that even I, a complete amateur, find him embarrassing.

OK, he had 1970s graphics and all, but I miss Dr. Frank.

I was fortunate enough to visit the legendary Harold Taft at KXAS in Ft. Worth back in the last 1970s. He spent hours preparing his on-air charts. They were giant print-outs of various background maps - the U.S., Texas. Harold used colored chalk to identify all the features. His charts were a work or art. Wish I'd have asked him for one.

My Dad worked with Taft in the 1950s at American Airlines in DAL.

All the KXAS on air mets were (probably still are) degreed mets. Unlike the bowtie guy on the ABC affiliate. Ok, she was an Aggie, and a little chunky, but they had a very cute morning weather person back when I lived there.

To get back on topic-

a delicious home baked NASA close up visible floater of the 'disturbance'


Central America should slow down the Easterlies, reducing shear and increasing convergence, and this could be an interesting system in the East Pac.

[gboudx]

Unlike the bowtie guy on the ABC affiliate.

Troy has a degree. Is it not in meteorology? And he's no longer on the air. He quit 2-3 years ago.