WPAC: TD SOUDELOR (05W/PAGASA Gorio)

[wyq614]

Initial position: 16.1N 135.3E

Already has relatively deep vortex and is in low shear, it is forecasted by CWB to move westward while deepening.

[senorpepr]

Not too shabby. Still has a way to go in terms of development. Potential is there. Appears to be awfully high in latitude--may not be a big player to landfall as the periphery subtropical ridge is further E. We shall see...

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite disorganized.

[vbhoutex]

Please tell those that are not as versed as you about satellite photos what they are seeing! It is not always obvious to those that are just learning to read these images.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better now.

[theavocado]

Looks like this thing has linked up with a TUTT cell to the east. The invest is actually in the smaller red convection area to the east on Luzon, and the large fan shaped area of convection to the southeast is the outflow pattern. The circulation center to the east of 99W, centered on the 150E longitude line, is the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. This is starting to enchance outflow of 99W and could lead to further development soon.

Edit: Product is a water vapor image.

[theavocado]

Looks like we might actually have something out west again.

ABPW10 PGTW 071900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071900Z-080600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 133.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED
IN A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS THE AREA HAS VERY GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT THAT IS
STARTING TO BECOME ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERIC TROUGH
TO THE EAST. A 0930Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF LUZON TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
YAP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

99W has subsequently been "upgraded" to FAIR with the follow output from JTWC:

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
133.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL REMAINS A
BROAD REGION OF TROUGHING BUT HAS SEEN CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS BUT HAS SEEN A DECREASE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH UPPER
LEVEL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS IN A REGION OF DIFLUENCE WITH
INCREASING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

From JMA - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 17N 128E WNW SLOWLY.

It's still lacking deep convection over or near the centre. ECWMF takes this towards the northern South China Sea.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED
AND UNCONSOLIDATED. A 082311Z 91GHZ SSMI/S IMAGE REVEALS THE LACK OF
AN ORGANIZED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL
TURNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[senorpepr]

WTPN21 PGTW 090930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 125.8E TO 21.1N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 090526Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
126.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD, CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 125E, JUST WEST
OF LUZON ISLAND, PHILIPPINES. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SURROUNDING WATERS INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS, VERIFYING THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 18 TO 22 KNOTS NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090526Z AMSU-B IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ON THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT 99W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUFLOW DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100930Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 125E WNW SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

Very intense precipitation over Luzon. That interaction should slow development.

[senorpepr]

PAGASA has upgraded to TD Gorio...

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "GORIO"
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Thursday, 09 July 2009
Tropical Depression "GORIO" has accelerated as it continues to threaten Extreme Northern Luzon.

Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 230 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.3°N, 124.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Friday evening:
190 kms West Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or
120 kms Northwest of Laoag City

Saturday evening:
540 kms Northwest of Laoag City

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Cagayan
Calayan group of Islands
Babuyan group of Islands
Isabela
Kalinga
Apayao
Mt. Province
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
Batanes


TD "GORIO" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

09/1430 UTC 18.3N 123.1E T2.0/2.0 99W -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

Continues to produce very strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.7N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.2N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.9N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.1N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 122.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY ACCOMPANIED BY A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS. A 1018Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS AN ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE SYSTEM REPORT WINDS RANGING FROM 17 TO 25 KNOTS. TWO TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELLS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 05W ARE HELPING
TO PROVIDE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. TD 05W WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO CHINA. 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM TAIWAIN AND EASTERN CHINA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FINGER RESPONSIBLE FOR 05W'S
WESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS TD 05W
NEARS HONG KONG, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY BEYOND TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 090921Z JUL 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 090930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

[beaufort12]

Looks like we'll have a chance of rain from Gorio. I hope it knocks down the temperature a little, it'll be 35 today, and that's just too hot.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

09/2030 UTC 18.6N 122.2E T2.5/2.5 05W -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.1N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.7N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.7N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.0N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 120.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W
(FIVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN