TSR July Update: 11.4/5.6/2.4

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 2:00 pm

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

It seems now everyone is in agreement with an average season.

Derek Ortt · #2 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 3:22 pm

if we use the 1995-2008 mean, the forecasts are for a very quiet season

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:44 am

July 6th Update: http://tropicalstormrisk.com/

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:06 am

TSR ACE is 80 compared with the 60 UK has.I tend to go more with TSR only based on the 1995 and beyond activity in the North Atlantic and not a strong El Nino as the 1983-1997 ones.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:15 am

Their numbers were 11/5/2 before. Now 11/6/2?

June 4: 10.9 / 5.2 / 2.2

July 6: 11.4 / 5.6 / 2.4

So a very slight upward bump, it appears. I think they went the wrong way...

YouTube · #6 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:42 am

This is going to be a very interesting season. One of the most in recent memory in my opinion. Someone will either end up looking like a genius- a lot of someones perhaps. Or, a lot of folks will end up having to re-think how they forecast seasonal activity. And, we have to see if there is a "it only takes one" event too. Remember how grossly underforecast the 2005 season was. Funny how people did not really make much out of that but when the 2006 season was forecast to be very active and it did not, folks "complained" about the use of seasonal forecasts at all.

Lurker · #7 Postby **Lurker** » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:36 am

I could not agree more with your assessment. The 05 and 06 hurricane forecast totally busted. The most important aspect of any hurricane season are the tracks which CANNOT be guessed this far out. Even 5 day forecast have significant margin of error.

hurricanetrack wrote:This is going to be a very interesting season. One of the most in recent memory in my opinion. Someone will either end up looking like a genius- a lot of someones perhaps. Or, a lot of folks will end up having to re-think how they forecast seasonal activity. And, we have to see if there is a "it only takes one" event too. Remember how grossly underforecast the 2005 season was. Funny how people did not really make much out of that but when the 2006 season was forecast to be very active and it did not, folks "complained" about the use of seasonal forecasts at all.

TSR July Update: 11.4/5.6/2.4

TSR July Update: 11.4/5.6/2.4

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