Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

EURO and GFS 500mb heights pattern in 10 days show high pressure in a big way.That explains why GFS is showing the track of the supposed CV system not rising much in latitud.



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro shows this system at 240 hours north of the Leewards.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9070612!!/

[cycloneye]

Not surprised with the change in intensity this way far out as the 18z GFS has a more weak system as it shows a strong wave reaching the Lesser Antilles at the 21rst instead of a much stronger system it had in past runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro shows this system at 240 hours north of the Leewards.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9070612!!/

I see a big wind surge in the Caribbean (which may be a semi-permanent feature, at least until later in the season), but the poor graphic display of the ECMWF free version of the Euro makes it awfully hard to say for sure it has a feature.

That little bit of 850 mb winds over 30 knots may be suggestive of a wave or low, but it is just kind of hard to tell for sure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still 15 days away from strong wave near Puerto Rico. If GFS is correct...

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC shows a glimpse of something in the Eastern Atlantic under 144 hours.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,GFS abandoned the CV wave scenario.

[meteorologyman]

How is the MJO phase right now I here no talk about it??

[Ed Mahmoud]

How is the MJO phase right now I here no talk about it??

Because it is boring now?

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS for the first time shows something near the Cape Verde islands but it vanishes rapidly.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z GFS doesnt have a Tropical Cyclone,moving westward from Africa,but it is a strong wave that by the 40W line it weakens.Also this run has a low pressure forming near Bermuda,but will it be semi-warm core or not is the question.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z CMC has a strong Tropical Storm to a minimal hurricane in the EPAC for next week.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

After a few runs without any strong system in the Eastern Atlantic,GFS is again with the CV strong wave scenario in the 18z run.It shows a low pressure attached to the wave as it tracks westward.As it reaches 40W,it weakens.But the 00z run may be better to look at as it has more data than the 06z and 18z runs.Lets see what happens in the next runs from this and other models.The wave GFS shows is currently in Central Africa.I am noy saying anything about development or not,only posting the runs in this thread.



Loop until 174 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Complete loop of 18z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Cyclone1]

Ehh... wake me up in August.

[gatorcane]

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SAL across the MDR is strong right now. SSTs are running a bit below normal also. Right now I do not expect any development from this wave in the MDR -- it has a small chance once it moves farther west into the Caribbean. But even then, chances are pretty remote as it is likely going to run into a TUTT.

[Aquawind]

Ehh... wake me up in August.

Thanks for the laugh. Seems like a sleeper season alrighty..but, that can change quickly and it could be a active few weeks come prime time. Thus far a real snoozer. We all be watchin..

[BigA]

00z GFS continues to show developing low off Africa at and just after the "magical" 144 hour mark

150 hour

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

For what it's worth, the post 180 hr fantasyland/low resolution predictions has the system moving into the northern Caribbean, across Hispanola and Cuba, and into the Gulf

[blp]

00Z GFS

Strongest run I have seen so far. Let see if it changes its mind again tomorrow.

168hr


00Z EURO, has a low in the same area. Hard to tell with the low resolution though how strong it is.
168hr

[Sjones]

Looks to be not as strong on this run, but still out there

[gatorcane]

.But the 00z run may be better to look at as it has more data than the 06z and 18z runs.

This system is back in a big way in the 00Z run. GFS depicts a westrunner that barrels through the Caribbean islands passing through the SE Bahamas, Straits of FL and into the central GOM. This is all way out though, but interesting that the system is back again and how far west the GFS takes it...

[boca]

Here today gone tomorrow is the motto for the GFS.Let's see if something actually forms. I think the area right now is in Central Africa.

[gatorcane]

Here today gone tomorrow is the motto for the GFS.Let's see if something actually forms. I think the area right now is in Central Africa.

True, but the 00Z and 12Z runs have more data inputed, as cycloneye mentioned.

The long-range ECMWF shows nothing in this timeframe.

I'm very skeptical it will happen of course, just noting what the model is outputting.