WPAC: Invest 90W

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE IN THE
EASTERLIES AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION
HINTING AT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY,
CHUUK HAS OBSERVED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS
WITH SOME TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THOUGH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
LACKING FOR NOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[theavocado]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION HINTING AT A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW GIVING THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Still has some work to do before developing.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing near the center.

[dowdavek]

This is on the top of our list in Guam. Any predictions of the effects in Guam? Today's been overcast with ocasional showers.

[HURAKAN]

Welcome to Storm2k.





It seems this system will pass south of Guam.

[dowdavek]

oh ok. We still might get some rain though right?

[senorpepr]

oh ok. We still might get some rain though right?

That's what the NWS in Tiyan is saying from their Area Forecast Discussion.

[cycloneye]

From the GUAM AFD:

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS IS WHETHER THE
CURRENT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W) WILL REACH THE MARIANAS. AFTER
VIEWING MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL OF THEM EXCEPT GFS KEEP THIS
EXPECTED WX FEATURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. NOGAPS ECMWF AND UKMET
AGREE TO KEEP 90W NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS OVER YAP.
IN THIS CASE...GUAM MAY RECEIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS LEAVING THE REST
RELATIVELY DRY. AT UPPER-LEVELS...SHEAR MAY BE A PROMINENT FACTOR
TO CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF 90W NEAR THE
MARIANAS. THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST BUT HAVE AGREED WITH THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT IN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER THE ISLANDS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST INCREASES
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WEST OF THE MARIANAS
WILL ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER TODAY.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/AFDPQ