Major Upgraded To Canadian Model Announced

[wxman57]

I just received word that the Canadian model received a major upgrade on June 22nd of this year. I didn't ask the author whether I could post all the changes here, but I think that I can mention a few major points concerning tropical cyclones:

o New system seems to have removed over-forecast bias for tropical systems

o In rerun of 2007 hurricane season, reduced frequency of "false alarms" noted in medium range over Atlantic basin

So keep an eye on the Canadian model runs to see if the modelers really have reduced the number of false alarms.

[gatorcane]

I just received word that the Canadian model received a major upgrade on June 22nd of this year. I didn't ask the author whether I could post all the changes here, but I think that I can mention a few major points concerning tropical cyclones:

o New system seems to have removed over-forecast bias for tropical systems

o In rerun of 2007 hurricane season, reduced frequency of "false alarms" noted in medium range over Atlantic basin

So keep an eye on the Canadian model runs to see if the modelers really have reduced the number of false alarms.

Great, so you are saying we won't see the CMC spin up everything it can into a TC anymore?

Will the publically available version see this upgrade, from this site?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[wxman57]

Great, so you are saying we won't see the CMC spin up everything it can into a TC anymore?

Will the publically available version see this upgrade, from this site?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Right, 100% guarantee of no false alarms. We'll see...

As for the web page, they're only running the updated model as far as I know, so anything online will be the new model runs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just received word that the Canadian model received a major upgrade on June 22nd of this year. I didn't ask the author whether I could post all the changes here, but I think that I can mention a few major points concerning tropical cyclones:

o New system seems to have removed over-forecast bias for tropical systems

o In rerun of 2007 hurricane season, reduced frequency of "false alarms" noted in medium range over Atlantic basin

So keep an eye on the Canadian model runs to see if the modelers really have reduced the number of false alarms.

But this forum almost lives for 144 hour Canadian generated Category 5's hitting Miami!


In a busy 2005 season, the people could handle a lack of spurious cyclones, but in a UKMO forecast 3 to 9 storm year, oh the humanity!

[Cyclenall]

This is great news, maybe this will help Canadian weather forecasts improve and have a better image on the tropical community .

If possible, can you mention more details about what upgrades they have done to the Canadian model?

I have noticed a bit of a decrease in the number of TC's shown over the last couple of weeks.