WxMan57 looking for sub-tropical mischief off Mid-Atlantic?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wave axis is already moving inland into the Yucatan/southern MX and convection is on the decrease. Just a brief flare-up in storms as the wave slowed down a bit and convergence increased. Nothing more.

Keep an eye off the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow for a low development. Won't be tropical to start, but the NHC's naming trigger finger may be getting itchy.

Meeting to go to, but I will seriously peruse models and satellite imagery at lunch.

[KWT]

Sounds like a classic El Nino development to me if that does happen, this season has already seen 3-4 systems like this, Td1 wasn't too dissimilar in evolution either for that matter.

[wxman57]

The low will be embedded in a jet core, so odds of tropical development are low. It does look like a low will develop on the stationary front, though, then race out to sea to the northeast. It may slow down east of 50W and between 35N-40N and develop a bit by Sunday. No threat to land.

[Derek Ortt]

not sure the shear will let up. May very well get a low. But will likely be ET. Chances of seeing an Arthur type storm are slim

[srainhoutx]

Agreed. Way too much shear IMHO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No storms before July 21st.


In the name of all that is good and proper, Mom and apple pie, no named storms before July 21st!

[hurricanetrack]

I think you will be quite safe in your request. Might even get to August 21 with no named storms. We'll see. As long as the GFS "no you see it, now you don't" hurricane does not actually happen, you will be fine.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think you will be quite safe in your request. Might even get to August 21 with no named storms. We'll see. As long as the GFS "no you see it, now you don't" hurricane does not actually happen, you will be fine.

New Euro seems to suggest a mid or upper feature pinches off the trough, migrates Southward into the Gulf, and becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the day 8 to 10 period before hitting Florida P'handle.


That would ruin my August 21 position in the S2K poll.

[wxman57]

New Euro seems to suggest a mid or upper feature pinches off the trough, migrates Southward into the Gulf, and becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the day 8 to 10 period before hitting Florida P'handle.


That would ruin my August 21 position in the S2K poll.

I thought you said July 21?

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Euro seems to suggest a mid or upper feature pinches off the trough, migrates Southward into the Gulf, and becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the day 8 to 10 period before hitting Florida P'handle.


That would ruin my August 21 position in the S2K poll.

I thought you said July 21?

You're right, I did.

July 21st.


I know the HGX NWS and Joe Bastardi see the Euro in higher resolution/detail than I do, I assume you do as well.

Do you think the Euro might be on to something, and is it indeed a feature from the Westerlies reaching the Gulf and developing? Does it get fully warm core, highest winds, yada, yada, etc.

[Sanibel]

Very weak, but that hanging trough could be trying to start to spin just off Georgia.

[cpdaman]

could we have a low developing east of georgia

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

wxman57 what da ya say........would any low move fast out to sea from here........would it have any gale force winds around it

nhc site show a 1017 low in the area of GA coast....gee 1017 that's real powerful

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

seems like decent convergence in the area

[Sanibel]

Doesn't look like anything I would gamble on. The 'spin' is probably just a synoptic eddy. Still though, that trough has been hanging long enough that it is probably anomalous for it not to form: