Caribbean - Central America Weather

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SJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST JUST NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE HIGH WILL
ROTATE BACK AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AGAIN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FROM AFRICA TO FLORIDA
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVES AND AFRICAN DUST ARE QUEUED UP
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO AFRICA. CURRENTLY ONE IS TRACKING SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...A SECOND WAVE IS NEAR 51 WEST...WHILE A THIRD IS
NEAR IS NEAR 39 WEST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
THE ENVIRONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ONLY A FEW STILL
PATCHES OF MOISTURE REMAIN OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED ONSHORE IN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WERE
GENERALLY MOVING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THIS FLOW TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS AND LONG ENOUGH TO BRING
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO THE SAN JUAN AREA AIDED BY THE DRIER
AIR STILL LINGERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RECORD FOR TODAY WAS SET
IN 1995 AND 1990 WITH 93 DEGREES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THE DRY
SLOT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BECOMING MORE AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH SOME MOISTURE INCREASING JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND AND OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BRUSH BY SAINT CROIX AND
PUERTO RICO TODAY YIELDING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST AREAS WILL FIND THAT CONVECTION WAS IMPEDED
BY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. THE NEXT WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 13 NORTH
AND 51 WEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA WITH BETTER
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND SOME CONSIDERABLE AFRICAN DUST. FOR NOW
WAVES WERE MOVING AT AROUND 18 KNOTS.

THE FORECAST REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE...BUT DID BOOST THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AFTER YESTERDAYS 93. AM
HOLDING WITH THE BASIC IDEA OF A SUCCESSION OF WAVES WITH SOME
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY AFRICAN DUST AT LEAST OUT THROUGH DAY 8. WINDS
AT 850 MB SHOW A MAXIMUM LATE SUNDAY AFTER AN UNSTEADY INCREASE
THAT PEAKS AT AROUND 38 KNOTS. THE GFS IS SHOWING WINDS AT 700 MB
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS BY SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN
17Z-22Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL HAVE TO BE HOISTED BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. SEAS
WILL PEAK JULY 4 AND 5.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGING STILL ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF
LOCAL AREA MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ABV BOUNDARY LAYER. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ON THE MAP THIS MORNING OF INTEREST TO PR/USVI.
FIRST WAVE AXIS AROUND 55-57W...AND THE SECOND APPROACHING 40W.
FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH WEST AND CROSS THE CARIB WATERS SOUTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THAT WAVE...AND WORKING INTO THE SECOND ONE
IS A VERY LARGE AND VERY DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. EXPECT DUST
TO MOVE OVER USVI AND THEN PR...INCREASING IN DENSITY THIS
EVENING...AND BECOMING ENTRENCHED EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY
THE HAZE SHOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL BE
VERY NOTICEABLE. MOISTURE AND WEATHER WITH FIRST WAVE WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT. ITS THE SECOND WAVE...WITH FORWARD EDGE APPROACHING
VI SUNDAY MORNING THAT BRINGS THE WEATHER. GOING NUMEROUS POPS
EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MID DAY.

AFTERWARD...DUST SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST UNTIL PASSAGE OF SECOND
WAVE ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT ITS HARDER TO SAY BECAUSE DUST NOT
OBVIOUS ON SAL IMAGERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN ATLC YET...BUT LOGIC
WOULD SAY MORE DUST WOULD FOLLOW THE SECOND WAVE FOR MON-
WED...UNTIL YET ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES (WEDNESDAY). SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO LOOKS SIMILAR FOR THE EXTENDED EXCEPT THAT SUBTROPICAL
HIGH MOVES MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH WAVES RUNNING THE
LOW LATITUDES AND BRINGING DUST ACROSS THE TROP ATLC.

SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE CARIB WATERS AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF PASSAGES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCA IN PLACE FOR CARIB WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING.
GOING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 8
FOOT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE...AND WILL ONLY GO WITH 7`S OVER THE CARIB AND LEAVE ATLC
OUT FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 03/16Z. AFT 12Z A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ.
WINDS ARE EASTERLY THROUGH 50 THOUSAND FEET. WINDS BELOW 20 THOUSAND
FEET ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2009

PRC011-083-097-032130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0187.090703T1836Z-090703T2130Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
236 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
  FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

  IN PUERTO RICO
     LAS MARIAS...MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 231 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREA. SO FAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF HAVE FALLEN IN ISOLATED
SPOTS...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED AT
LEAST UNTIL 530 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN...AND MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6719 1830 6718 1824 6700 1820 6700

$$
RAM

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 040712
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 AM AST SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...PATTERN PROGRESSING IN HARMONY WITH GOING FORECAST.
BOTH TROPICAL WAVES HAVE MOVED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE LAST
DAY...WITH WESTERN WAVE AXIS ALIGNED SOUTH OF PR AND SECOND WAVE
AT ABOUT 45W. SAHARAN AIR LAYER STARTING TO CREEP INTO AREA AS
LOCAL OBSERVATION AT THE OFFICE SHOW SOME MINOR HAZE AS OF 2 AM.
STILL EXPECTING HAZE TO BECOME MORE DENSE TODAY...BUT MIGHT NOT
SEE THE INTENSE CONCENTRATION WE WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTING UNTIL
MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS...TO THOSE BOTHERED BY THE SAHARAN AIR
MASS...YOU CAN EXPECT SOME EFFECTS THIS WEEKEND.

MOSTLY DRY AIR ON BACK SIDE OF CURRENT WAVE EXPECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION AND THE TYPICAL
ISLAND STREAMERS. AFTERWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SECOND WAVE
STARTS WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BEST
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL KEEPING
NUMEROUS POPS FOR VI AND MOST OF PR FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND CLOUDIER SKIES THAN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN. NAM12 SHOWING 40 KT FLOW AT 850MB WITH PASSAGE OF WAVE
AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WITH SAL INTERACTION FOR
GUST BOUNDARIES AND ISSUE MARINE PRODUCTS AS FIT. SCA IN PLACE FOR
MOST SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER WAVE AXIS PASSES MONDAY
EVENING...BACK TO DRY AND DUSTY UNTIL NEXT WAVE NOW PROGGED FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 03/16Z. AFT 16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO SO
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BRIEFLY IF AT ALL AT TJBQ...BUT TJMZ
IS LIKELY TO SEE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN A THUNDERSHOWER.
STREAMERS OFF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR
TJSJ...BUT IF SHOWERS FORM THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE
AIRPORT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 04/22Z AND INTO CARIBBEAN WATERS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 05/00Z. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR AND THE USVI AFTER 05/10Z DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZIER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SAHARAN DUST MOVES INTO THE AREA.


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URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2009

...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE ANEGADA AND SOUTHERN MONA PASSAGES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

AMZ732-741-051015-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-090707T0400Z/
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
1013 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST
MONDAY NIGHT...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050741
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE AND FAST MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AROUND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DEVELOPING CELLS JUST WEST OF ST KITTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ST MAARTEN AIRPORT SHOW GUSTY WINDS WITH A
REPORT JUST OVER 30 MPH. NAM12 SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING WELL
SHOWING 700 VORT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ITS NORTH...LIKELY
ASSISTING THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. EXPECTING BEST MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY TO MOVE OVER THE
USVI 13-16Z AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY 18-21Z. GUST POTENTIAL WITH
THESE CELLS SHOULD APPROACH 30 KTS OVER WATERS...MAY GO WITH A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42060 LOCATED ABOUT 50 SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX ALREADY SHOWING
8 FOOT SEAS WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT NORTHEASTERLY...DENOTING TOP
EDGE OF WAVE AXIS APPROACHING AND VERIFYING SCA CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIB WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. GOING GRIDS
HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SCENARIO AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS
RANGE POPS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN TACT.

MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH DEEP EASTERLIES CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS...VI AND MOST OF COASTAL PUERTO RICO. BACK SIDE
OF WAVE WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO VI BY 15-18Z
MONDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
A BUSY CONVECTIVE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. AFTERWARD...NAM12...SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IMAGERY...AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST
DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) TO MOVE OVERHEAD AGAIN. WITH
LOW MID LEVEL SOUTH-EASTERLIES AND HOT TEMPS AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

WED-THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE MOISTURE FROM A TUTT REFLECTION
UNDERNEATH U/L LOW PROGGED TO BE EAST OF LEEWARDS AT THAT TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 22Z WITH PERIODS OF STONG GUSTY WINDS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE U.S.V.I AT AROUND 13Z AND
WILL BRING THESE EFFECTS TEMPORARAILY TO TJSJ, TJPS AND TJBQ THROUGH
17Z. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 6-8 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
105 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

PRC007-025-029-031-037-041-045-049-053-061-063-069-077-085-087-089-
103-119-127-129-139-147-052045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0189.090705T1705Z-090705T2045Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO
PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO
PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CULEBRA
PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE
PR-VIEQUES-
105 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN
LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...
GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CULEBRA...CAROLINA...
HUMACAO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 1240 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SOLID LINES OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS OR
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SO FAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND THIS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN RIVER AND
STREAMS AT LEAST UNTIL 445 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN...AND MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6521 1821 6536 1809 6539 1812 6560
1817 6561 1813 6567 1822 6625 1845 6596
1839 6551 1829 6557 1819 6545 1826 6535
1835 6542

$$
RAM

[cycloneye]

Moved thread from Weather Attic forum to Talking Tropics forum to allow members who live in the Caribbean to post their observations as this strong Tropical Wave moves thru.After this wave passes,the thread will be back at Weather Attic forum.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 052019
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BROUGHT BRIEF AND INTENSE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
EXPECT THIS WAVE TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THIS
REASON...MAINTAINED NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

EXPECT A RETURN TO DRIER AND HAZY CONDITION FOR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND IN NARROW STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF THE VI. ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR...DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY...WITH SIMILAR DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA...WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND A
BRIEF BREAK IN HAZY CONDITIONS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...QUICK MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE.
THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR POSSIBLY
EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...SAHARAN DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 6-8 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
757 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

PRC007-021-025-035-041-045-061-129-060200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0190.090705T2357Z-090706T0300Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
757 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...SAN
LORENZO AND GUAYNABO

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 750 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM CIDRA AND CAGUAS NORTHWESTWARD TO AGUAS
BUENAS AND BAYAMON. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN AND
AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF CAGUAS AND AGUAS BUENAS. WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 10
PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE
AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1819 6598 1810 6610 1827 6625 1832 6614

$$

JFR

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
927 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

PRC029-037-053-085-089-103-119-060330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0191.090706T0127Z-090706T0330Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-
FAJARDO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
927 PM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO
AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1130 PM AST

* AT 920 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM NAGUABO AND FAJARDO WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TO AGUAS CANOVANAS AND RIO GRANDE. SO FAR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
LUQUILLO AND FAJARDO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 1130 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6591 1844 6582 1839 6552 1817 6562

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

A strong thunderstorm is over San Juan with plenty of lighting going on.I can hear the thunder many times as it gets closer to where I am.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON JUL 6 2009

PRC007-021-025-041-045-061-063-105-127-129-139-061230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0193.090706T0928Z-090706T1230Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
NARANJITO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
528 AM AST MON JUL 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 830 AM AST

* AT 526 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN RIVER AND
STREAMS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6596 1811 6601 1828 6627 1844 6614

$$

ET

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060737
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 AM AST MON JUL 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE HEADING
FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
ALONG ACTIVE CONVERGENT ZONE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
AFTER HEATING KICKS IN...AND SHOULD BE DONE BY NOON. AS WAVE PASSES
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS AND TPW OBS INDICATE A SHARP DRYING
OF THE AIRMASS AS DUST FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES WEST. HOWEVER...WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
NAM12 SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AM STILL
EXPECTING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GOING WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR VI STREAMERS AND MOST OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...WITH NUMEROUS
POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER FACTOR TODAY WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS...WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS IN THE 25 KNOT
RANGE YESTERDAY. DID INCLUDE GUST WORDING IN COASTAL AND LAND
ZONES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN TONIGHT. ALSO KILLED THE SCA FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS BUOYS VERIFYING SEAS ARE LIKELY BELOW 6
FEET ALL AREAS. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER MOST
WATERS...WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO DECK STRIKES OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLC UNTIL WAVE PASSES.

AFTERWARD...RETURNING TO MUCH A NORMAL JULY PATTERN WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CNTL ATLC...WAVES PASSING SOUTH IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC AND HAZY SKIES OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEK. STILL
LOOKING FOR A TUTT REFLECTION WED-THU...WENT WITH SCT POPS
THERE...AND A WAVE FOR FRIDAY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS DUE TO
QUICK PASSING SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09Z WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ 17Z-22Z WITH TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD IN SHOWERS. TJBQ WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
16Z THEN BECOMING BROKEN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 5NM OF AIRPORT. TJMZ WILL REMAIN VFR...THROUGH 16Z WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIST
AND TISX WILL CONTINUE VFR WITH AND ISOLATED SHOWER REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR THROUGH 15Z. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS LOCAL AREA BECOMING DENSER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
VISIBILITIES...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...OF 6-8 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE JUL 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVAILABLE CIMSS GOES-WEST AND METEOSAT-8 ALGORITHMS DEPICT A
MODERATE STRENGTH SAHARAN AIR LAYER /SAL/ DIRECTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
DRY AIR ALOFT NORMALLY ACCOMPANYING A SAL CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE
MORNING TJSJ 07/1200Z SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND ISOLATED OVER THE PREFERRED
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS ANOTHER INCREASED COLUMN OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER ENCROACHES THE AREA. GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE SEA BREEZE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO KICK IN ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY NOON WILL ALLOW ANY
WEAK CAP TO BE ERODED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN ISOLATED.

OTHERWISE...FOR THE MID- AND LONG-TERM FORECAST...EXPECT A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE
ISLANDS WINDWARD FACES ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
US VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SEVERAL AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...HOWEVER THESE SYSTEMS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTH AT THE MOMENT TO
DISCERN MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH 22Z BECOMING VFR AFTER THAT. LATE
TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK...AND
TNCM. ALTHOUGH SOME HAZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES...VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.


[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080240
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1040 PM AST TUE JUL 7 2009

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE EVENING...AS FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH APPARENT
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO REGION AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD
EXPECT ONLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT...
TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 42 WEST LONGITUDE...LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO FAR. BY THEN EXPECT ANOTHER
EPISODE OF SAHARAN DUST JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH
WILL AGAIN BRING SIGNIFICANTLY HAZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...FOR NOW DECIDED TO TAKE
THE HAZE OUT OF THE WX GRIDS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/DUST THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST
AND THIN OUT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HAZY CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS CONCENTRATED AS RECENT
DAYS...SO FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL
MONITOR AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED FORECAST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 081932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST WED JUL 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FIND THEMSELVES BETWEEN TWO WEAK UPPER LOWS...BUT THE ONE
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVE TO BE THE LONGER LIVED LOW AND
CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST EDGES
AWAY LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
FADE OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST-WEST RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT AND INTO PUERTO RICO LATER. A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 47 WEST WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY
AIR BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET. THIS HAS REDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. FLOW WAS FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE ISLAND. A BAND OF MOISTURE WAS ORIENTED WEST SOUTHWEST-
EAST NORTHEAST CROSSING JUST NORTH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND SHOWERS WERE SEEN JUST EAST OF
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN AT 3 PM AST. THIS BAND AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING AND INTO PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD NOT PENETRATE PARTICULARLY DEEPLY INTO THE ISLAND. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE
ADJOINING FOOTHILLS. THE BAND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME SAHARAN
DUST THURSDAY AND ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
SEEN. A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS BOTH LATE THIS WEEK AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FORECAST WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH 22Z BECOMING VFR AFTER THAT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND TKPK...AND TNCM. IT WILL THEN
PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS TIST...AND TISX BETWEEN 08/21Z AND
09/06Z PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME AS THESE SHOWERS PASS BY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 09/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...BUT AT THIS TIME THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST THU JUL 9 2009

PRC001-003-005-011-065-071-081-083-099-131-141-092100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0195.090709T1800Z-090709T2100Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-
AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-HATILLO PR-ANASCO PR-
200 PM AST THU JUL 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...HATILLO AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 155 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM LARES AND UTUADO WEST NORTHWESTWARD TO
AGUADA AND AGUADILLA. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN AND
AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN SEBASTIAN AND LAS MARIAS. WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST
THROUGH 5 PM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6670 1820 6684 1826 6704 1836 6721
1845 6715

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091932
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST THU JUL 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS... A TROPICAL WAVE...NEAR 54 WEST THIS AFTERNOON...IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY... RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...A TUTT LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SAN JUAN METRO AREA...THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
54 WEST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL GENERATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ENHANCING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH 9/2200Z...BECOMING
VFR AFTER THAT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM
10/1700Z THROUGH 10/2200Z. TJSJ 9/1200Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 30K
FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...THEREFORE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WHERE ISSUE FOR MOST
COASTAL WATERS ZONES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1