Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Todays 12z GFS continues to despict the CV scenario as the 00z had last night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Todays 12z GFS continues to despict the CV scenario as the 00z had last night.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

Weakens in the Atlantic at tau 180, last time period before the resolution lobotomy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS almost completely kills it after Hour 180 lobotomy, remnants as seen by weak 850 mb wind shift hit South Carolina.


I'm not convinced.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

too early for a cv system

[gatorcane]

CMC (with upgrade software) is showing the wave moving off of Africa in 144 hours, with a hint that it may be latching on to the GFS idea. Since it does not go further than 144 hours we won't know for a few more days.

If the ECMWF comes on board we may just have some model support. A new thread to discuss this potential CV system would be justified and snoozers can come out of the wood work

Note: I'm still not convinced it is going to happen...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian's 850 mb feature (easier to track weak systems) awfully weak.

[crazycajuncane]

I'm glad the tropics are quiet... made this weeks vacation in Destin perfect!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm glad the tropics are quiet... made this weeks vacation in Destin perfect!

I was in Jamaica Beach a week and a half ago, and there are still a fair number of unfixed and undemolished homes there. One had minor chimney damage, no other damage except the stairs to the deck were gone, but it was almost certainly beyond the vegetation line (and thus doomed by Texas Open Beaches). But some were behind the vegetation line.


And the fishing piers and Flagship Hotel (in my new avatar) haven't been touched, it would appear.


4 years ago you would have had a very interesting vacation...

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF showing a system into the FL panhandle developing in 216 hours..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9070912!!/

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF shows weak lows in the Tropical Atlantic,nothing more than that.

12z ECMWF

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z ECMWF showing a system into the FL panhandle developing in 216 hours..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9070912!!/

Hard to tell for certain looking at the 500 mb heights, but I think a bit of a low cuts off from the main trough, migrates South into the Gulf, develops a surface reflection, and migrates back North.

40 knot winds on a global model at 850 mb could suggest a strong tropical/sub-tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane.


This is not the GFS system, best I can tell.

[BigA]

Hard to tell for certain looking at the 500 mb heights, but I think a bit of a low cuts off from the main trough, migrates South into the Gulf, develops a surface reflection, and migrates back North.

40 knot winds on a global model at 850 mb could suggest a strong tropical/sub-tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane.

If that happened, it would be a similar setup to 1997's Hurricane Danny, which formed during mid July of an El Nino year.

[gatorcane]

18ZGFS rolling out now is really bullish, and its only 5 days out. Okay so I am becoming a bit more interested but still skeptical... but we are now in the short-term range and not talking about some 240+ hour phantom storm. We just need to see a few more runs, the 00Z run tonight will be interesting.

This is the most agressive I have seen the GFS on this area. Hmmmmm..is it a go?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hard to tell for certain looking at the 500 mb heights, but I think a bit of a low cuts off from the main trough, migrates South into the Gulf, develops a surface reflection, and migrates back North.

40 knot winds on a global model at 850 mb could suggest a strong tropical/sub-tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane.

If that happened, it would be a similar setup to 1997's Hurricane Danny, which formed during mid July of an El Nino year.

I remember that. Rob Perillo was all over that, and when the disturbance that was Danny came down through LFT on the way to the Gulf, it sparked one of the most intense lightning storms I ever saw.

Danny was only a Cat 1, but I went offshore out of Venice a week or two later, and there was visible damage driving down, and I worked a Snyder Oil Company job way out in the Main Pass, being drilled turnkey by ADTI with a platform rig, and ADTI did not evacuate, and would not let a hand fly in to the heliport with car keys to move cars, and the heliport flooded. All the hands lost their cars.

I don't go offshore anymore, I have no idea if Venice has recovered as an offshore oilfield port/air base since Katrina.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS weakens this big time after the 180 hour lobotomy. The TUTT and shear, or just lower model resolution. Quien sabes?

But look who has a healthy tropical wave, at least, over their neighborhood in 10 days per the GFS.

Hour 180

[KWT]

That would be the resolution playing its hand there Ed. Still given the El Nino conditions its a little early to be looking for Cape Verde type systems, they tend to have a hard time till late August in El nino seasons usually.

[yzerfan]

I'm glad the tropics are quiet... made this weeks vacation in Destin perfect!

Are you going to hit the Blue Angels air show at Pensacola Beach? They've finally got both coast roads (Pensacola Beach to Ft. Pickens and Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach open again) and it's interesting how recovered Pensacola Beach looks if you don't remember how many more houses there used to be there and can ignore the giant chunks of pavement still washed to the side on the Pensacola Beach to Navarre Beach road.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS animation showing this tropical low/depression rolling off Africa and headed West through the MDR.

GFS has been pretty consistent lately with this system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The 18z run of GFS has only a fairly strong wave but nothing more.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[tailgater]

12Z ECMWF showing a system into the FL panhandle developing in 216 hours..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9070912!!/

Hard to tell for certain looking at the 500 mb heights, but I think a bit of a low cuts off from the main trough, migrates South into the Gulf, develops a surface reflection, and migrates back North.

40 knot winds on a global model at 850 mb could suggest a strong tropical/sub-tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane.


This is not the GFS system, best I can tell.

No model support but a Low may be forming over NE fla. could be what you were seeing Ed

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes