Landfalling major hurricanes have been more common in MS

[weathernms]

Mississippi along with several other Gulf Coast States have experienced many hurricanes of various intensities over the years, but more major hurricanes have targeted the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Full details:
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-5181 ... ississippi

[wobblehead]

Probably due to the loop current's heat content as well as it's location. Most storms that have good structure and pass over the current absorb the energy and tend to explode in strength.

[somethingfunny]

That is an anomaly statistically speaking. Mississippi only has about 50 miles of coastline, out of nearly 1000 miles of US coastline on the Gulf...maybe 5% of the US Gulf Coast, has taken 25% of the US Gulf Coast's major hurricane landfalls, according to that article. And people say Florida sticks out like a sore thumb!

[wxman57]

Don't assume that everything you read in the paper (or on the Internet) is true. I thought that those numbers looked a bit high. I suspected that the author may have been counting storms that were ONCE a major hurricane but weakened before landfall as major hits, given the graphic of tracks in the article. So I went to Unisys and counted the number of TS, H and IH that crossed the MS coast since 1900:

Tropical Storms - 11
Cat 1-2 Hurricanes - 5
Major Hurricanes - 5

So that's only 10 hurricanes that have struck/crossed the MS coastline since 1900, not 16. Where did the other 6 come from? Look at his graphic - they crossed the LA/MS border north of New Orleans. That makes the MS "coast" a lot wider:

[jinftl]

From 1899 through 2008, here is the breakdown of where the 81 majors that have made landfall in the U.S. have taken place....this data only counts the state of first landfall (i.e., Louisiana for Katrina) as the 'initial landfall point'...florida clearly does stick out like a sore thumb....33% of all majors made landfall in the state, with another 33% making landfall in texas and louisiana combined.

Massachusetts - 1
Rhode Island - 1
New York - 5
North Carolina - 9
South Carolina - 3
Florida - 27
Alabama - 3
Mississippi - 4 (1906, 1916, Camille, Elena)
Louisiana - 11
Texas -17
http://media.mgnetwork.com/breaking/Hur ... /main.html

From 1900-1999, the landfall of the 73 majors in the u.s. was as follows (data above includes the 8 majors from 2000-2008)

[wxman57]

I counted Frederic in 1979 as a major MS hit. My mother in Pascagoula, MS went through the western eyewall of Frederic. Even though the center hit possibly just about right on the MS/AL border, I think it would qualify as a major landfall for MS. It was a close call as to MS or AL, though.

[Derek Ortt]

where do they get 5 for New York? There was only 1, the 1938 hurricane

[wxman57]

where do they get 5 for New York? There was only 1, the 1938 hurricane

They counted all hurricanes that hit New York that were ONCE Cat 3-4-5 hurricanes somewhere in the Atlantic, but not necessarily at landfall. So the 1944 hurricane, Carol, Donna and Gloria were counted as major hits in New York. Those who write about hurricanes in the media do not always have a clue...

[Agua]

Someone (dhweather?) several years back (after Ivan, before Katrina) did a "landfall by mile of coastline" table. I think at that time, Alabama had more, but not by much. I thought I had saved that graphic, but I can't find it right now.

I have no doubt that on a "per mile of gulf frontage" basis, Mississippi coastal counties have had a high number of direct hits as compared to counties in other states.

[jinftl]

Dr. Gray did a study of storms from 1900-2006 and came up with the following climatological stats....for further explaination of how these were dervied and calculated (there is a 'factor' for length of a county's coastline). see links below.

The top ten counties in the u.s....

Probabilty of 1 or More
Named Storms Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL 22.3%
Terrebonne, LA 11.0%
Matagorda, TX 9.3%
Kenedy, TX 8.4%
Charleston, SC 8.4%
Miami-Dade, FL 8.1%
Cameron , LA 8.1%
Carteret, TX 7.5%
Jim Wells, TX 7.2%
Dare, NC 7.1%


Probabilty of 1 or More
Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL 16.5%
Miami-Dade, FL 5.8%
Matagorda, TX 5.7%
Terrebonne, LA 5.6%
Charleston, SC 5.5%
Kenedy, TX 5.1%
Carteret, NC 5.0%
Dare, NC 4.7%
Jim Wells, TX 4.3%
Palm Beach, FL 4.2%


Probabilty of 1 or More
Major Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the Region
Monroe, FL 7.9%
Miami-Dade, FL 2.7%
Terrebonne, LA 2.6%
Matagorda, TX 2.3%
Kenedy, TX 2.1%
Palm Beach, FL 2.0%
Jim Wells, TX 1.7%
Hidalgo, TX 1.6%
Charleston, SC 1.6%
Brazoria, TX 1.5%

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

Someone (dhweather?) several years back (after Ivan, before Katrina) did a "landfall by mile of coastline" table. I think at that time, Alabama had more, but not by much. I thought I had saved that graphic, but I can't find it right now.

I have no doubt that on a "per mile of gulf frontage" basis, Mississippi coastal counties have had a high number of direct hits as compared to counties in other states.

[lonelymike]

Wouldn't Mississppi take more damage because of the shallow depth of the Gulf? Ala Katrina? They don't often get a storm but when they do it always seems to be a monster.

[Agua]

Nice stats, but the point is landfalls (1st or 2nd) per mile of Gulf frontage, not including bays, inlets. Bet ya $5 Mississippi is way up there.

[Edited as follows:] I'm not talking about individual counties. Compare total hits on to total miles of a given state's non-bay/inlet coastline.

[jinftl]

No arguing the MS coast has seen catastrophic surge damage....not that any area would want a storm...but certainly the MS coast is not a place to have a storm with a large surge....it is just too surge prone and direct landfall is not always needed to cause flooding.

The eye and eyewall crossing over your head is not always needed for a surge disaster.....in that sense, there are areas that have been impacted without there being an exact 'landfall'.

Wouldn't Mississppi take more damage because of the shallow depth of the Gulf? Ala Katrina? They don't often get a storm but when they do it always seems to be a monster.

[Agua]

This was the table. Don't know if Dhweather produced it or he found it somewhere. It was current through 2004.

[jinftl]

Interesting data....shows just how stats can paint many pictures....look at this way, if there were 9 hurricanes in 104 years of records in MS that is roughly one hurricane every 11.6 years (104/9 = 11.6).  Whereas the 64 hurricanes in 104 years equates to one hurricane every 1.6 years in Florida.  So in terms of frequency of hurricane landfall, hurricanes are much more frequent in Florida ("more common").

That said, when a hurricane hits one of the states in the chart, clearly the states with less coastline have a higher percent chance of having any one mile impacted....which is why AL has the highest potential shone....less hurricanes in terms of frequency, but when one hits, there is a higher chance of being impacted....less surface area.Of course there is not a set potential for hits across all coastal regions of the bigger states (in terms of miles of coast) like FL and TX.  That is why on a county basis, there are clear areas of higher threat in FL (south FL) and part of TX than other parts of those states.  They get hit more frequently as opposed to coasts like MS and AL that get less hurricanes, but when they do, they impact the entire coast of those states.

Again, we are talking direct landfall...and based on the data in the chart, we are talking all categories, not just majors.

To use an analogy.....in terms of number of tornadoes, tornado alley has the most.  But any one mile of tornado alley has less of a frequency of direct tornado hits than any one mile in the city of Coral Gables, FL, a much smaller area in terms of square miles, when an actual tornado hits Coral Gables.  Say the city is 4 square miles....and the tornado is 1/4 mile wide.....that equates to a 1/16 chance that a spot in the city will be hit directly. 

No one spot in tornado alley has a 1/16 chance...that is because the tornadoes are spread out over hundreds of square miles.  All a function of relative size of the area being looked at.  There may be 1 tornado in Coral Gables and 1000 in the total area of tornado alley though.

This was the table.  Don't know if Dhweather produced it or he found it somewhere.  It was current through 2004.

[Agua]

Not arguing there's a far greater likelihood that Florida gets hit far more often than Mississippi. Absolutely not. Only that on a per/mile of coastline basis, Mississippi has to be near the top. We have a lot of hurricanes hit our coastline given the small area.

[jinftl]

From NHC....north central gulf has definitely seen its share of hurricanes over the last 100+ years....


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/strikes_us.jpg

[wxman57]

Just to get a visual on Gulf landfalls, I went to the Coastal Services Center's hurricane track viewer and made some climo maps of the Gulf for the period from 1851-2008 (first image). Being kind of busy, I broke the period down to 1851-1900, 1901-1950 and 1951-2008 (next 3 images). On each image, I circled what appeared to be unusual concentrations of hits. Now bear in mind that all hits weren't at hurricane strength. The plotter only displays cyclones that were Cat 1-5 at some point in their lives. But I think that you can see there are certain areas that tend to get more hurricanes, like south TX, the upper TX coast just south of Houston, the mid to southeast LA coast, the FL Panhandle, Tampa, and south Florida. I don't see any extreme concentrations in MS as opposed to areas just east or west of MS. Of course, a number of those that clipped SE LA went on to hit MS as well.

1851-2008:


1851-1900:


1901-1950:


1951-2008:

[jinftl]

Surge events could have definitely taken place on the MS coast with SE LA landfalling canes....possibly accounting for the difference between 'landfall' and 'impact'....with impact #s being greater.

By contrast, the most memorable hurricanes in south florida (1926 Miami, Cleo, Andrew, Wilma) have been widespread damaging wind event and surge events on the immediate coast...with wind doing the most overall damage. This makes sense given the greater number of actual 'landfalls'....and the number of those that have been majors....

[Texas Snowman]

Dr. Gray did a study of storms from 1900-2006 and came up with the following climatological stats....for further explaination of how these were dervied and calculated (there is a 'factor' for length of a county's coastline). see links below.

The top ten counties in the u.s....

Probabilty of 1 or More
Named Storms Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL 22.3%
Terrebonne, LA 11.0%
Matagorda, TX 9.3%
Kenedy, TX 8.4%
Charleston, SC 8.4%
Miami-Dade, FL 8.1%
Cameron , LA 8.1%
Carteret, TX 7.5%
Jim Wells, TX 7.2%
Dare, NC 7.1%


Probabilty of 1 or More
Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL 16.5%
Miami-Dade, FL 5.8%
Matagorda, TX 5.7%
Terrebonne, LA 5.6%
Charleston, SC 5.5%
Kenedy, TX 5.1%
Carteret, NC 5.0%
Dare, NC 4.7%
Jim Wells, TX 4.3%
Palm Beach, FL 4.2%


Probabilty of 1 or More
Major Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the Region
Monroe, FL 7.9%
Miami-Dade, FL 2.7%
Terrebonne, LA 2.6%
Matagorda, TX 2.3%
Kenedy, TX 2.1%
Palm Beach, FL 2.0%
Jim Wells, TX 1.7%
Hidalgo, TX 1.6%
Charleston, SC 1.6%
Brazoria, TX 1.5%

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

Someone (dhweather?) several years back (after Ivan, before Katrina) did a "landfall by mile of coastline" table. I think at that time, Alabama had more, but not by much. I thought I had saved that graphic, but I can't find it right now.

I have no doubt that on a "per mile of gulf frontage" basis, Mississippi coastal counties have had a high number of direct hits as compared to counties in other states.

What I find interesting about this chart is that Jim Wells and Hidalgo counties in Texas aren't coastal counties - they're a couple of counties inland!