EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[WmE]

Nice looking system with nice banding.

[Cookie]

East pacific 3 Atlantic 0

[Derek Ortt]

I question the SHIPS weakening. The primary factors are shear direction (wont make much difference if the shear is a whole 9KT like SHIPS forecasts) and the 850mb environmental vorticity. GFS really doesn't have anything; thus, lower vorticity

[CrazyC83]

East pacific 3 Atlantic 0

The EPAC will likely be much higher than the Atlantic at the end of the year, as is normal in El Nino years.

[KWT]

Looks very nice, Carlos looks like it has the makings of our first major hurricane of the season. Still maybe a little early to expect that but its wrapping up very nicely and it has got very good conditions aloft.

[cycloneye]

Beautiful structure it has.



You can get loops of Carlos at link below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[somethingfunny]

If it crosses 15N, it's as good as gone due to cooler SSTs. I was looking at the shear tendency maps and it looks pretty forbidding past 135W. Is the upper level environment expected to improve as Carlos makes its way west?

[HURAKAN]

Quite unimpressive convection-wise.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2009 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 10:18:48 N Lon : 113:59:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -49.2C Cloud Region Temp : -49.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 10:18:36 N Lon: 114:34:48 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Cyclenall]

The 1959 category 5 was one of the first ones I thought of but I wasn't sure if there had ever been one that was where most Epac TC's start (under central Mexico where the water temperatures are the highest).

That makes sense. It is almost unheard-of for an EPAC storm to reach Category 5 without El Nino though.

What makes sense? I was asking a question in the second part of the post.

I'm thrilled about the forecast from the NHC on TS Carlos, systems that don't have any weakening in the forecast through to 120 hours are preferred. The fact that it is moving quickly and west means a chance at entering the Cpac basin which is always fun. Could this system be the brother of the 1991 Hurricane Carlos of the Epac? As others have stated, Hawaii could see something during the next 2 weeks.

The Canadian is displaying a weak low speeding off to the Cpac where it gets slightly stronger with a couple other closed isobars behind it.

Wind speed table showing a 1% chance of a category 4 in 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

Both GFDL and HWRF have Carlos tracking mainly westward as a cat 2 hurricane.If it gets close to Hawaii and how strong is early to tell at this point.

18z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

this looks like a lead pipe cinch to become a cat 4

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Up to 45 kts, pressure down to 1000 mbs.

Time=00:00 UTC.
Position=Latitud,10.4N - Longitud,114.6W.
Pressure=1000 mbs.
System=Tropical Storm.



EP, 04, 2009071100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1146W, 45, 1000, TS,

[cyclonic chronic]

i agree. there is nothing from keeping carlos from rapid intensification at any point in the next few days. i know its very early to tell but hawaii needs to keep an eye on this. do major hurricanes in the cent. pac. have a tendency to recurve or carry on in the easterlies? guess it depends on the synopitic set-up. whatever the set-up, im happy to have something to check out.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Model Suite

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090711 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090711 0000 090711 1200 090712 0000 090712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 114.6W 10.8N 117.0W 11.1N 119.3W 11.3N 121.7W
BAMD 10.4N 114.6W 10.4N 116.8W 10.6N 119.0W 11.1N 121.2W
BAMM 10.4N 114.6W 10.3N 116.7W 10.3N 119.0W 10.5N 121.2W
LBAR 10.4N 114.6W 10.4N 117.1W 10.7N 120.0W 11.0N 123.0W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090713 0000 090714 0000 090715 0000 090716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 124.5W 11.7N 130.1W 12.1N 135.6W 12.7N 141.0W
BAMD 11.6N 123.6W 12.6N 128.5W 13.5N 133.0W 14.2N 137.6W
BAMM 11.0N 123.5W 11.7N 128.2W 12.6N 132.7W 13.5N 137.7W
LBAR 11.7N 126.1W 12.3N 132.4W 11.4N 136.6W 11.1N 140.3W
SHIP 74KTS 75KTS 69KTS 63KTS
DSHP 74KTS 75KTS 69KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.4N LONCUR = 114.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 112.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 110.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

[cyclonic chronic]

here we go, down to 1000 mbs.! Carlos u r green to go for take off. nothing but clear skys and optimal conditions in your flight path. have a good flight.

[pojo]

:uarrow:
i agree. there is nothing from keeping carlos from rapid intensification at any point in the next few days. i know its very early to tell but hawaii needs to keep an eye on this. do major hurricanes in the cent. pac. have a tendency to recurve or carry on in the easterlies? guess it depends on the synopitic set-up. whatever the set-up, im happy to have something to check out.

As do the Hurricane Hunters because once Carlos passes 140*W we are on our way out to Hickam to fly the storm. This system has the potential to come close to Hawaii as long as it stays together.

[cyclonic chronic]

what long. does the central pacific basin start? 145W?
got it 140W. a ways away, but one never knows

[pojo]

what long. does the central pacific basin start? 145W?
got it 140W. a ways away, but one never knows

140*W

[Macrocane]

I don't know if it will survive all the way to Hawaii wind shear seems that will be high in that area.