EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

#141 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:35 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-vis.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion Carlos is now a Hurricane plus some more. it appears to be going through very rapid intensification.

Derek Ortt · #142 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:35 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Looks like a small eye that is sharper with each passing hour.

Is there a reason why the GFS is still initializing Carlos as a open wave (or sometimes not even there at all) but continuing to show the remnants of TS Blanca as a tropical storm?

there is a very good reason for that. it is modeling 101. If there is no real data to initialize a forecast with, the new analysis is basically the previous 6 hour forecast

#143 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:36 pm

70 kts

498
WTPZ24 KNHC 112035
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 55NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

704
WTPZ34 KNHC 112036
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS BECOMES THE SECOND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 117.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

172
WTPZ44 KNHC 112040
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT
AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO
COIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE
THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A 70-KNOT HURRICANE.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE
PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES
AT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
THEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS
ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS
VARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#144 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 3:37 pm

woops,

looks like I caught it just at the upgrade.

Macrocane · #145 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:06 pm

Carlos has taken the throne as the strongest hurricane of 2009 EPAC season. It looks great in visible loops, though it looks kind of bad in infrared but it's improving, I think that it could become a cat 3 hurricane on the next few days before it reaches the shear zone.

Derek Ortt · #146 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:07 pm

do not pay much attention to the intensity output from GFDL/HWRF. The max resolution of HWRV is ~ 9 km and about 6 for GFDL. You really need resolution under 2km to depict hurricane intensity change

KWT · #147 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:10 pm

I'll be very surprised if it just holds at 85kts like the NHC are forecasting. Even the SHIPS now go higher then the NHC and given the set-up ahead of it I have few doubts this can become a major.

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:45 pm

Dont be confused by that open thing,as the eye is small.That south of the eye is a dry area trying to wrap.

#149 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:46 pm

Quite impressive.

#150 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 5:24 pm

Derek,what do you make of the EURO hanging to Carlos and tracking it south of Hawaii? Although,the starting point is much weaker than what it is now.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

#151 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:46 pm

"Quite a beauty"

Stealing a line from the great Steve Irwin.

Derek Ortt · #152 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:57 pm

maybe a little north of the EURO track, but south of Hawaii seems most likely AT THIS TIME (translation... given model error, Hawaii may very well be threatened)

Derek Ortt · #153 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:00 pm

lol at the ADT. It has the weakening flag on...

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:03 pm

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2009 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 10:28:06 N Lon : 118:11:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.7mb/ 77.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Center Temp : -58.4C Cloud Region Temp : -58.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON :?:

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Ptarmigan · #155 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:13 pm

It would not surprise me if Carlos becomes a Category 3 hurricane. Kinda far south.

#156 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:20 pm

ADT has it not properly centered. It thinks the center is in the cloud deck, not the eye. I think it has only strengthened somewhat, I'd put it at 75 kt right now.

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:23 pm

Here is what the NWS in Hawaii is saying in its latest discussion about Carlos.

FOR THE FAR EXTENDED...TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS IS FORECAST TO CROSS
140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A HURRICANE. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT. THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...
CREATING A LARGE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS STATE BETWEEN EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
UPPER LEVELS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

#158 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:29 pm

00 UTC Best Track

Winds increase to 75kts,980 mbs.

Time=00:00 UTC.
Position=10.5N-118.4W.
Winds=75kts.
Pressure=980 mbs.

EP, 04, 2009071200, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1184W, 75, 980, HU

#159 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:32 pm

SHIP takes Carlos to Major Hurricane at 00:00 UTC run

WHXX01 KMIA 120028
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090712 0000 090712 1200 090713 0000 090713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 118.4W 10.7N 120.7W 11.0N 123.1W 11.3N 125.7W
BAMD 10.5N 118.4W 10.6N 120.6W 10.7N 122.9W 11.0N 125.2W
BAMM 10.5N 118.4W 10.5N 120.6W 10.8N 122.8W 11.1N 125.1W
LBAR 10.5N 118.4W 10.6N 120.9W 10.9N 123.7W 11.5N 126.6W
SHIP 75KTS 90KTS 98KTS 101KTS
DSHP 75KTS 90KTS 98KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090714 0000 090715 0000 090716 0000 090717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 128.4W 12.6N 133.5W 13.3N 138.6W 13.9N 144.4W
BAMD 11.4N 127.5W 12.5N 131.2W 13.4N 134.7W 13.8N 138.7W
BAMM 11.7N 127.3W 13.1N 131.2W 14.0N 135.1W 14.6N 139.9W
LBAR 12.1N 129.8W 13.0N 135.7W 13.4N 140.0W 10.9N 142.1W
SHIP 102KTS 95KTS 81KTS 67KTS
DSHP 102KTS 95KTS 81KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 118.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 116.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 114.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM

SHIP makes an about face from strong shear at 120 hours.Now it has shear of 12 kts.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      CARLOS  EP042009  07/12/09  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    83    90    94    98   101   102    99    95    87    81    73    67
V (KT) LAND       75    83    90    94    98   101   102    99    95    87    81    73    67
V (KT) LGE mod    75    83    88    92    94    97    99   100    99    97    90    82    73

SHEAR (KT)         1     4     6     7     5     5     6     3     3     7     9    13    12
SHEAR DIR        329   360     6     5    32    20    67    16    14   309   306   312   308
SST (C)         29.0  28.8  28.6  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.2  27.8  28.0  27.9  27.5  27.2  26.8
POT. INT. (KT)   155   153   151   149   149   149   147   143   145   144   140   136   132
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     8     7     8     7     7     6     7     7     8     7     7
700-500 MB RH     57    57    62    61    59    58    58    59    55    52    47    50    49
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    10     9     9     9     8     8     7     6     6     5     5
850 MB ENV VOR   -27   -19   -19   -13    -9     1     3     5     4     2     3    -2    -4
200 MB DIV        36    37    11    -2    16     2    13   -11   -24   -10    -1   -37   -40
LAND (KM)       1642  1703  1770  1850  1930  2074  2244  2384  2519  2292  1990  1716  1488
LAT (DEG N)     10.5  10.6  10.7  10.8  10.8  10.9  11.2  11.7  12.0  12.3  12.4  13.0  13.7
LONG(DEG W)    118.4 119.6 120.7 121.9 123.1 125.4 128.0 130.2 132.3 134.7 137.7 140.2 142.2
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    11    12    12    12    12    11    11    13    14    11    10
HEAT CONTENT      49    45    43    37    35    29    28    23    29    29    22     9     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  600  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   5.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.  -7.  -8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  10.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   5.   6.   7.   6.   4.   2.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            5.   7.   8.   9.   7.   6.   4.   3.   3.   3.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           8.  15.  19.  23.  26.  27.  24.  20.  12.   6.  -2.  -8.

   ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009     CARLOS 07/12/09  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.7 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  76.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.8 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   5.7 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  41.8 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    61% is   5.3 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    56% is   7.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    55% is  10.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009     CARLOS 07/12/09  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

HurricaneRobert · #160 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Sat Jul 11, 2009 8:07 pm

That looks like a pinhole eye.

EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm CARLOS (04E)

Re:

Re: EPAC : Tropical Storm CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : Hurricane CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CARLOS (04E)

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