EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a 55KT TS this morning

small systems... can intensify quickly and weaken just as quickly

[Derek Ortt]

first visible imagery shows massive outflow boundaries

I wonder if there was some mid level shear along with a little dry air

[cycloneye]

70 kts


WTPZ34 KNHC 121458
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

...HURRICANE CARLOS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1135 MILES...1825 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.4N 121.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

INFRARED IMAGERY OF HURRICANE CARLOS DISPLAYS A MORE RAGGED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.5...BUT ADT AND AMSU SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER CYCLONE. BASED UPON THE CONTINUING DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
SIGNATURE SINCE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70
KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE MODERATELY UNCERTAIN. THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CARLOS HAS OBSCURED ITS CENTER OVERNIGHT
AND THE MICROWAVE SENSORS ABOARD THE POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITES HAVE
RATHER ADROITLY MANAGED TO HAVE MISSED SEEING THE HURRICANE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE IS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOS. THE RIDGE
IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP CARLOS
ON A NEARLY DUE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NOGAPS MODEL TO THE NORTH. THIS MODEL MAY BE RESPONDING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BECAUSE
OF ITS LARGER REPRESENTAION OF THE VORTEX. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESS WEIGHT ON NOGAPS AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATER TIME
PERIODS.

THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BROADER...LESS WELL-DEFINED
EYEWALL THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS...CARLOS HAS A
LARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
ACROSS VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NONE NOW BRING CARLOS TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...THE SSTS COOL...AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE STABLE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO VERTICAL SHEAR
REACHING CARLOS BY DAY FIVE...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY THREE. AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES...THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 10.4N 121.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 10.5N 122.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 10.7N 125.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 10.9N 127.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 11.2N 129.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 138.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 142.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[MGC]

Rather surprised at the look of Carlos this morning. Looks like a TS....I was expecting a more powerful cane. Mother Nature has thrown a left hook.....MGC

[cycloneye]

The eye is trying to pop out?

[tolakram]

Here are the SST's I am looking at.



These areas of cooler water don't show up in the broader view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-avn.html

[clfenwi]

It seems like something flakey's going on with that SST overlay. Note that the date is 2009078, when in should be 2009193 (those last three digits are the Julian date).

The RTG-SST chart, which is the data used to generate that overlay, does not show that cool spot.

[Iceman56]

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2009

VALID 00Z MON JUL 13 2009 - 00Z MON JUL 20 2009

MODELS DISPLAY RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE LARGER-SCALE
SCENARIO OVER HAWAII FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH THE REGION
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH BUT WITH A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH REMAINING NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BRISK TRADES MOST DAYS WITH WINDWARD
AREAS RECEIVING PERIODIC RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...HURCN CARLOS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST WOULD HAVE IT CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
REMAINING IN THE WARMER WATERS. THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THE WRN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING TO
NEAR 150W MAY CAUSE FORECAST PROBLEMS AND A POTENTIAL THREAT TO
THE BIG ISLAND IF THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL MORE NWD. MOST OF THE
SIG WIND SHEAR AS SEEN BY ECMWF OCCURS NORTH OF 17N AROUND DAY 7.SEE NHC WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.
ROSENSTEIN

[cyclonic chronic]

i think in a few of the last vis. images of last nite, showed some dry air caught up in carlos. my guess is that this got entrained into the warm,moist eye and put a quick halt to intensification. think of charley in 04, it was about as big and it ramped up in a few hrs. imagine if dry air got entrained into charley 3 hrs before landfall. it wouldnt have been a billion+ hurricane. the smaller ones are the most unpredictable of em all, esp intensity. makes u wonder if we'll ever figure out how to predict intensity. theres so many itty-bitty lil things that go into to it, a computer will never be able to truelly pinpoint it. isnt there a theory about this? anyways my whole babble here is about how wrong we can all be about forecasting.

[Derek Ortt]

this needs to be downgraded to a TS

[senorpepr]

65 kt at 18Z...

Code: Select all

EP, 04, 2009071218,   , BEST,   0, 103N, 1213W,  65,  987, HU,  34, NEQ,   60,   60,   45,   60, 1010,  225,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     CARLOS, D,
EP, 04, 2009071218,   , BEST,   0, 103N, 1213W,  65,  987, HU,  50, NEQ,   30,   20,   20,   30, 1010,  225,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     CARLOS, D,
EP, 04, 2009071218,   , BEST,   0, 103N, 1213W,  65,  987, HU,  64, NEQ,   20,    0,    0,   20, 1010,  225,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     CARLOS, D,


[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Model Suite

SHIP weakens Carlos slowly as it moves mainly westward.

015
WHXX01 KMIA 121851
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090712 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090712 1800 090713 0600 090713 1800 090714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 121.3W 10.6N 123.9W 10.9N 126.5W 11.2N 129.0W
BAMD 10.3N 121.3W 10.2N 123.5W 10.1N 125.7W 10.1N 127.6W
BAMM 10.3N 121.3W 10.3N 123.6W 10.3N 125.9W 10.5N 127.9W
LBAR 10.3N 121.3W 10.6N 123.4W 11.1N 125.9W 11.6N 128.6W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 65KTS 63KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090714 1800 090715 1800 090716 1800 090717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 131.2W 12.1N 135.6W 12.7N 140.8W 13.1N 147.6W
BAMD 10.1N 129.2W 9.9N 132.5W 9.5N 136.6W 8.3N 142.0W
BAMM 10.7N 129.6W 11.0N 132.9W 11.0N 137.1W 10.2N 142.7W
LBAR 12.1N 131.1W 13.0N 136.1W 12.9N 140.7W 10.2N 144.7W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 53KTS 47KTS
DSHP 65KTS 63KTS 53KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 121.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 119.4W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.2W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[wxmann_91]

Think this should remain steady state over the next few days... the models were correct. Gulped down a little too much dry air poison (or shear), and that's certainly not going away anytime soon. The good news is that with this system weaker, it might take a more equatorial path that will keep it south of HI.

[Derek Ortt]

what are you talking about wx? Where is this mysterious persistent shear?

This was something temporary and I would not be surprised to see a cat 2 this time tomorrow

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL and HWRF agree with the scenario I layed out. Little change the rest of today, followed by intensification

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

It has a bonifide Carlos moving westward passing 140W as a cat 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF

Same as GFDL in intensity passing 140W as a cat 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm

WTPZ34 KNHC 122033
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1175 MILES...1895 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
CARLOS COULD REINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.3N 121.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

WTPZ24 KNHC 122033
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 121.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 121.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 10.5N 126.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 10.7N 128.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.9N 130.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 13.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

088
WTPZ44 KNHC 122038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009

CARLOS HAS CONTINUED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO SHOW A
DETERIORATION OF ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. WHILE TAFB/SAB DVORAK
AND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES SUGGEST AROUND 65-75 KT...THE DATA
T NUMBERS AND MOST RECENT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. MOREOVER...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTRACTED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXTENDING
ONLY ABOUT 200 NM IN DIAMETER. THUS THE WIND RADII ARE CONTRACTED
FROM THAT INDICATED EARLIER.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/9. THE POSITION HAS MORE
CERTAINTY THAN EARLIER TODAY DUE TO A FORTUITOUS SSMIS PASS AT
1535Z. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTHEAST. THE RELIABLE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH
TAKE THE CYCLONE SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTHWARD. THIS BEHAVIOR
MAY BE DUE TO THE OVERLY LARGE-SIZED VORTEX IN THE NOGAPS MODEL.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE REMAINING TRACK MODELS ALONG
WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

IT STILL IS A BIT OF MYSTERY WHY THE CYCLONE WEAKENED AS MUCH AS IT
HAS TODAY. THE GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON A
SUBSTANTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES ONLY BRING CARLOS BACK UP A FEW KNOTS. THERE
DOES EXIST A TWO TO THREE DAY WINDOW FOR CARLOS TO RESTRENGTHEN AS
IT TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND MORE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 10.3N 121.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 10.5N 126.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 10.7N 128.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 10.9N 130.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 144.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

it has reached the area of greater upper divergence now. may see this ramp back up

[wxmann_91]

what are you talking about wx? Where is this mysterious persistent shear?

This was something temporary and I would not be surprised to see a cat 2 this time tomorrow

I meant mostly the dry air. SST's are not increasing along its path and its getting ever so closer to the ever-present ctrl Pacific stratocumulus deck.

[jinftl]

From latest NHC Discussion:

THERE DOES EXIST A TWO TO THREE DAY WINDOW FOR CARLOS TO RESTRENGTHEN AS
IT TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND MORE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM