
Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?
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- gatorcane
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Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?
I've decided to open up this thread for member comments. It concerns a strong tropical wave in the MDR (mean development region) with mid-level rotation at 9N, 35W. Discussions started in the "long-term models thread" but think a new thread could be used to discuss if it has any chance of becoming our next invest.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
It was about time to have a thread about this.In my view,it is still attached to the ITCZ.The questions about any development chances are sal,ssts marginal,shear.
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
I think that it's trying to separate from the ITCZ, as it's latitude has risen from about 5.5 degrees last night to 8 or so now.
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
It looks good but its still attached to the ITCZ, so it has to seperate first.Is this the same area in which the models have this just NE of Puert Rico at 168 hrs in the 00GFS run last night.
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
SAL is really a problem to this wave also it will encounter some dry air and stronger wind shear as it moves west, though SST will be a little warmer when it reaches the lesser antilles. IMHO it has a chance for some slow development but no more than a tropical depression.
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
Because of the semipermanent trough along the east coast and the lack of a bermuda high to expand westward at all this summer. If this were to develop it would recurve at Puerto Rico longitude. (65w).
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- x-y-no
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
There's a fair amount of dry air to the north and ahead of this area:

but in its favor, that dry air is moving along in concert with the system and there's no SAL approaching from the rear.
If this were August or September, I'd be fairly confident of development. At this time, I give it about 20% chance.

but in its favor, that dry air is moving along in concert with the system and there's no SAL approaching from the rear.
If this were August or September, I'd be fairly confident of development. At this time, I give it about 20% chance.
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
Not in a bad spot now, shear wise, but it gets worse along the way...

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- x-y-no
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Not in a bad spot now, shear wise, but it gets worse along the way...
Yeah, that southern jet is still really ripping through the Caribbean.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
boca wrote:Because of the semipermanent trough along the east coast and the lack of a bermuda high to expand westward at all this summer. If this were to develop it would recurve at Puerto Rico longitude. (65w).
Agreed, both the long-range ECMWF and GFS show the Bermuda High weakening and retro-grading eastward into the Central Atlantic around days 6-7 as a semi-permanent trough-like feature sets up again along the Eastern CONUS (does this pattern look familiar? It's been like this nearly the entire hurricane season so far). That would indeed recurve anything around that longitude, assuming it develops and heads north of the Leeward islands.
The 500MB chart at day 7 shows that trough along the Eastern CONUS:

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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
Unless, of course, increasing shear and sal keep it from becoming a tropical cyclone, and it is just a decently strong wave that follows low level steering until it reaches the Western Caribbean/Yucatan in about 10 days, starts to develop, makes landfall just South of Texas, close enough to rotate a few outermost convergence bands over my lawn. Not so far away to just increase the subsidence, or close enough to cause worry on the Texas coast anywhere North of Rockport.

Not a forecast, just a fond wish.
Not a forecast, just a fond wish.
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- wxman57
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
Yes, Ed, quite a wish. Maybe we can put some body English on it and get some rain here in Houston?
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
wxman57 wrote:Yes, Ed, quite a wish. Maybe we can put some body English on it and get some rain here in Houston?
Did my wish for snow, supported by a 144 hour 6Z run of the GFS pay dividends last December?
OK, actually not, unless I have inside connections with The Creator I am not aware of.
NWS HGX thinks death ridge gets far enough West we could get disturbances riding down from the North.
I drive home on I-45 looking North, that would be cool.
Of course, most Northwest flow events in Springtime seem to happen late at night, from convective systems that develop in the Plains during the afternoon. But it is July now, I have no clue how the timing would work.
Enhanced visible loop
If we didn't have Carlos and 96E, that could maybe trigger a boredom invest. But I'm not so sure now.
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12z GFS fairly bullish on development
144 hours out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
144 hours out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
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- wxman57
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
The 12Z GFS is focusing development on the system well east of the mid level rotation around 32W-33W. Closer to 20-25W and part of a secondary surge of moisture following in the first one's wake. You can see it on the MIMIC TPW image below, just west of Africa now.


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- dixiebreeze
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
this could be first strong tropical wave that make it too leedward islands it still few days to make it their but it could
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Re: Development with Strong Tropical Wave in MDR?
If it does develop per GFS, while it misses all land, it does come close enough to at least raise eyebrows in the Northeast.

Hour 300 forecasts are not always completely accurate.

Hour 300 forecasts are not always completely accurate.
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