EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[wxmann_91]

Definitely believe this is a hurricane again now, if it wasn't earlier. Smaller storm and stronger gradient usually means stronger storm than what would appear, and thus Dvorak tends to do poorly with these. CDO and warm spot in the center reappearing on IR now. (And yes, I know the NHC initialized the 2 AM intensity at 55 kt, and considering the intensity fluctuations that occur so often with Carlos, might be necessary for continuity.)

@Lurker: Thanks for the kind words.

[cycloneye]

ZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

CARLOS REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERIZED BY A
COMPACT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION... BUT WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF
BANDING FEATURES. THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBVIOUS STRUCTURAL CHANGES
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...ARE ALSO LARGELY UNCHANGED.
GIVEN CARLOS' QUASI-STEADY APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.

RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING 270/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
INSISTENT ON CARLOS GAINING SOME LATITUDE...AND THE PRESENT CYCLE
OF MODEL RUNS IS NO DIFFERENT. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY VERIFICATION
OF PREVIOUS DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS REVEALS A
PRONOUNCED NORTHERLY BIAS. ON THIS BASIS...THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AS THE PREVIOUS AND KEEPS CARLOS
SOUTH OF THE GENERALLY MORE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS
ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BAM SUITE OF SOLUTIONS. IN DEFERENCE TO
THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...HOWEVER...THIS NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
CARLOS IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FASTER LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW RESULTING IN SOME ACCELERATION.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT CARLOS WILL BE ENTERING A REGION OF
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT LOW LATITUDES
CAN BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO EVEN MODEST INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CARLOS MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LESS IN THIS CASE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 9.7N 127.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 9.8N 128.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Cyclenall]

The pin-hole eye has returned and it appears it did so after the NHC released their latest package. I'm just wondering if it's going to unexpectedly go through RI now and reach major status after fooling around for the last 60 hours, that would be something else.

Not only does it have a full ring of red around the eye on AVN imagery, but a rapidly clearing out pin-hole that is as good as it was at peak intensity! It's also so small that it takes only a couple of pixels in the image floater (like Wilma's) WOW!

[cycloneye]

Is a hurricane again

ZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...CARLOS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 300 AM PDT...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1465
MILES...2355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35
MILES...55 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 300 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...9.7N 127.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH


WTPZ44 KNHC 141007
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SMALL
EYE...AND THEREFORE CARLOS IS UPGRADED ONCE AGAIN TO A HURRICANE.
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED
ON THE REVISED INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF CARLOS. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1000Z 9.7N 127.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 9.8N 128.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

If Carlos continues to get smaller it may disappear!!!

[Macrocane]

That's a great way to start the day, with pictures of such a beautiful small system. Carlos still had surprises for us.

[CrazyC83]

14/1200 UTC 9.8N 127.3W T4.5/4.5 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Given its small size and difficult to sample with a tight circulation, I'd guess 80 kt right now.

[HURAKAN]

14/1200 UTC 9.8N 127.3W T4.5/4.5 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Only God knows the true intensity of such a small cyclone.

[Category 5]

14/1200 UTC 9.8N 127.3W T4.5/4.5 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Only God knows the true intensity of such a small cyclone.

We can always ask the fishes.

[Iune]

Carlos next to 96E

[HURAKAN]

EP, 04, 2009071412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1273W, 75, 981, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, 1007, 125, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOS, D,
EP, 04, 2009071412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1273W, 75, 981, HU, 50, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1007, 125, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOS, D,
EP, 04, 2009071412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1273W, 75, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 10, 1007, 125, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOS, D,

[CrazyC83]

Advisory coming out: up to 80 kt now.

[Iune]

14/1200 UTC 9.8N 127.3W T4.5/4.5 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Given its small size and difficult to sample with a tight circulation, I'd guess 80 kt right now.

And you would be right

[senorpepr]

WTPZ34 KNHC 141431
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS FURTHER...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1465 MILES...2360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
45 MILES...75 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.0N 127.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[senorpepr]

WTPZ44 KNHC 141502
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS SHOW THAT CARLOS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE...10 N MI WIDE OR LESS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC...AND
RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE EXCEEDED 5.0 AS THE EYE GETS BETTER
DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. CARLOS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO
THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW
FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET. ON ONE SIDE ARE THE HWRF...
GFDL...AND UKMET...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION CLOSER TO
10-11N. ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH CALL FOR
CARLOS TO REACH 15-16N BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED
A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

CARLOS IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CARLOS COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CARLOS TO PEAK AT HIGHER THAN ABOUT 85
KT. THE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR CARLOS
TO REACH 85 KT IN 12 HR...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GFS...ECWMF..AND CANADIAN
MODELS CALL FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO LIE ALONG 10-11N...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
CALL FOR THE AXIS TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
AFTER 24-36 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 10.0N 127.5W 80 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 10.2N 128.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 10.9N 131.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 11.2N 133.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 12.0N 138.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 144.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 150.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

maybe there are having a hard time measuring a pitch angle for the Dvorak Technique... lol
being that its so small..I some how doubt very much its only at 80 kts .. do you all see the serious donut of deep convection .. thats not a 80 kt hurricane thats a major hurricane right now. but hey as HURAKAN said "Only God knows the true intensity of such a small cyclone."

[Aric Dunn]

as for the eye clearing out.. i would not expect such a small eye to be very clear remember wilma it was so small that it was just a little warmer spot on infrared when it was at peak intensity. and right now this thing has a eye 3 times as large as wilma at 10 miles wide.. lol

[Macrocane]

I think that Carlos is stronger either. Remember that a small cyclone could intensify (or weaken) very rapid. I wonder if NHC will issue anothe special advisory if they confirm that it is a major hurricane, though confirm that it's difficult with the lack of direct measurment of winds and pressure.

[HURAKAN]

I haven't heard anyone say the "a" word!!!

[KWT]

It hasn't got the large eye but it does have some features doesnt it!