EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[HURAKAN]

Also, didn't Polo have a 10-20 mile radius of TS-force winds?

25 miles

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/POLO.shtml?

[cycloneye]

I say its higher than the 85kts that ADT has.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 9:57:26 N Lon : 127:58:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 977.9mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 4.8 4.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -52.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HurricaneRobert]

Cute little hurricane

[cycloneye]

85kts

936
WTPZ34 KNHC 142033
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...CARLOS MAINTAINING DISTINCT SMALL EYE FEATURE...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1500 MILES...2415 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45
MILES...75 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.0N 128.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

WTPZ44 KNHC 142036
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FREE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE.
ENHANCE BD INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS WARMED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE EYEWALL CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS
RECENT CLOUD PATTERN DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASING ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE T-NUMBER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
STRENGTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. CARLOS REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO
THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET. THE HWRF...GFDL...
AND UKMET ARE STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE STILL ON THE NORTH SIDE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.0N 128.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 10.3N 129.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 10.7N 130.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 132.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 12.0N 140.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 152.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[clfenwi]

So, at 18Z, Carlos met 4 of the 7 criteria for being screened as an annular hurricane:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/14/09 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/09071 ... _ships.txt

As it was below 85 knots at the time, it would have failed the intensity screen. Also, it failed the SST screening step (must be between 25.4 and 28.5 C). Not sure which other step it would have failed. Shear (which accounts for two of the steps) definitely isn't one. I'm guessing that it's for the radius of coldest brightness temperature being less than 50 km; but that's a guess without closer examination of the data.

Ref: Objective identification of annular hurricanes using GOES and reanalysis data

[WmE]

That's a little conservative IMHO. It looks more like 100kts.

[CrazyC83]

Too bad there is no Recon anywhere near it to confirm the real intensity. 85 kt is definitely really conservative though...

[Ptarmigan]

Looking like a major hurricane? "You betcha"

Got a nice eye. It does look like a major hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Also, didn't Polo have a 10-20 mile radius of TS-force winds?

25 miles

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/POLO.shtml?

I notice EPAC hurricanes are smaller than Atlantic. Any reasons for that, despite a lot of warm water?

[CrazyC83]

Looking like a major hurricane? "You betcha"

Got a nice eye. It does look like a major hurricane.

I'd have gone with 95 kt personally, which is above the Dvorak estimates but I'm not ready to jump on calling it a major.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Too bad there is no Recon anywhere near it to confirm the real intensity. 85 kt is definitely really conservative though...

Hawai'i being ballpark 20ºN, 155ºW, they have a couple more days to decide to send a plane. I figure at least a day of preps, almost a day to fly to Hawai'i with refueling in SoCal, and almost a day of crew rest before an actual mission.

If this never looks to cross 15ºN in the next 5 days, and official forecast is well South of that currently, a plane will never be tasked.

[KWT]

It does look alot like a major hurricane, the eye is actually quite clear and it looks easily 100kts IMO at the moment, best looking system by far in the EPAC/Atlantic...it really does look classic!

[HURAKAN]

Impressive loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

I still think this is a major hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I, of course, have no training whatsoever in the Dvorak technique, and since different agencies arrive at somewhat different numbers sometimes, it isn't an exact science anyway.

IIRC, I believe I heard that recon sometimes finds intensity a full Saffir-Simpson category higher or lower than the current Dvorak.

So, this could be a major, or maybe it isn't.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't have any training with Dvorak either. It's not 100 percent accurate either. Should send UAVs into tropical cyclones.

[srainhoutx]

More than likely this is a major already. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade with the next Advisory.

[CrazyC83]

More than likely this is a major already. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade with the next Advisory.

If the 0000Z Dvorak run finds T5.5 or higher or a special run is done, they might issue a special advisory at 0000Z (5 pm PDT).

[HURAKAN]

Looking very nice.

[MGC]

Looks to me that Carlos is knocking on the door of being a major. I'd go with 95KTS. And to think just yesterday Carlos was a pathetic looking TS. What a difference a day makes in the tropics...MGC

[cycloneye]

That is why the tropics are the most facinating part of the world as anything can happen and many surprises occur.