EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES (05E)

[clfenwi]

JTWC jumped the gun on this one with the TCFA. In my amateur opinion, tomorrow will be Dolores's coming out party.

Edit: JTWC issues TCFAs, not the NHC; my mistake.

The good senorpepr will correct me if I am wrong on this point, but my understanding of TCFA's is that they are based on an objective criteria. It's not a forecaster's call that development will happen in the next 24 hours, but rather a sum of criteria that indicates development is likely. As such, the only way they could jump the gun is if they were to release a TCFA before the appropriate point total had been reached.

[RL3AO]

You are correct, clfenwi.

[HURAKAN]

783
ABPZ20 KNHC 142341
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED
FROM THE CENTER...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

First advisory for TD 5-E at 8 PM PDT

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962009_ep052009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907150132
NONE
NOTIFY

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 052009.ren

[RL3AO]

NHC seems to be a little quicker on the trigger this season with the EPac.

[cycloneye]

Compared to the long treck that Carlos has endured,this one is small.

104
WHXX01 KMIA 150134
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0134 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FIVE (EP052009) 20090715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090715 0000 090715 1200 090716 0000 090716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 113.5W 14.4N 115.1W 15.6N 117.0W 16.7N 119.1W
BAMM 13.5N 113.5W 14.4N 115.3W 15.4N 117.3W 16.5N 119.4W
LBAR 13.5N 113.5W 14.2N 115.4W 15.4N 118.0W 16.6N 121.2W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090717 0000 090718 0000 090719 0000 090720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 121.4W 20.1N 126.3W 22.5N 130.8W 25.9N 133.7W
BAMM 17.7N 121.8W 20.1N 127.2W 22.4N 132.5W 25.2N 136.3W
LBAR 17.9N 124.7W 20.4N 131.7W 22.1N 135.4W 23.4N 123.2E
SHIP 38KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 113.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 112.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 110.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
[/b]

[cycloneye]

523
WTPZ25 KNHC 150238
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 113.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 113.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

...SPRAWLING DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 680 MILES...1090 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A
STEADIER MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER THAT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 113.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

300
WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT
PASS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID
LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION
IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM
TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. APART FROM THIS...A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN
FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[MGC]

TD-5E should not get that much stronger, perhaps a weak TS. ULL to its north is causing too much shear over the depression.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST OR ABOUT
675 MILES...1085 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 114.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT WE KNOW IT IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
DATA. IN FACT....A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD
BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED AND EVEN MORE REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE
DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN TWO DAYS OR SO.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.

BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIAS ON THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.2N 114.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 120.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 123.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 21.5N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[cyclonic chronic]

i place the center at 14.6N 114.7W at 9 utc.

http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/6466/81359050.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=EP052009

Buenos días, Dolores.

[Macrocane]

Yes, I believe it's already Dolores, looking very good, better than her tiny older brother Carlos.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST OR ABOUT 660
MILES...1065 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN MORE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 115.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A 0856
UTC TMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS STILL
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WARRANTS AN INCREASE OF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF DOLORES
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF DOLORES WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DOLORES BEGINS TRAVERSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEN THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE TMI PASS WAS ALSO QUITE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 11 KT. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DOLORES REMAINING
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
BY DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND BECOMES
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE SHALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.0N 115.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 119.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 122.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[cyclonic chronic]

cloud tops pushing -80 C. delores was huge yesterday, she had to shed some of her size to become better organized. top o the morning delores

[HURAKAN]

Size isn't everything!

[CrazyC83]

That looks a lot stronger than 35 kt.

[WmE]

Wow, it's looking very good. Very cold convective tops.

[Macrocane]

That looks a lot stronger than 35 kt.

Yes it does. Maybe on the next advisory NHC will be less conservative.

[HURAKAN]

Dolores looks good but lop-sided.