Accuwx's JB issues preliminary winter forecast

[Portastorm]

Here is the link:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

[srainhoutx]

I hope he is right concerning TX. May have to get "Lucy" ready.

[Ed Mahmoud]

According to Bastardi, the tropics will begin to heat up after mid-August. People along the Southeast coast and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will especially need to be on guard. Quick-forming tropical storms will be a threat, leaving people in coastal areas with only a few days notice for preparation.

It is this lack of time to prepare that will be the big danger of this year's tropical season. People from the coastal Carolinas to Florida, Alabama and Louisiana should be ready well in advance to take immediate action if rapid-developing tropical storms threaten.

Hmmmm, what large Gulf Coast state is not mentioned as far as residents needing to be prepared well in advance?



A snow miracle two Winters in a row would so ROCK!

[gboudx]

With the heat we're having right now, that looks rather divine.

[Portastorm]

I would love to chase Lucy around a few times this winter. Heck, I'm even willing to take a fall or two. Outside of the surprise snow event in December (which didn't last nearly as long in AUS as it did in HOU), we got what Charlie Brown got for Halloween: A ROCK!

I hope JB is right.

[SCMedic]

I'm going to go out on a limb here with JB and call him an ****. There will probably be someone here who thinks that's inappropriate. I understand some people think his word is gold, but I think but he should stick to his hurricane forecasts.

He has Denver in the "warmer and drier than the last two winters" section. Last winter had precip of 40% of normal here, and weather in the 60's/70's off and on for most of the winter. It was called one of the warmest and driest winters on record. Not sure how it could get much warmer and drier.

An El Nino typically brings Denver a very snowy winter. Being that we're going into an El Nino year, his forecast makes 0 sense.

edited by vbhoutex to remove inappropriate content.

[gboudx]

He states that he believes El Nino will fade during the Winter and therefore there won't be "typical" El Nino conditions across the country.

Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter and will probably not play as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a typical El Niño year.

He's also using 2002-03 Winter as an analog.

[PTPatrick]

I already posted in a previous thread so I wll just cut and post since it was actually in the USA weather forum but it is pertainent to the JB forecast, and while I am not a met, I think it makes good sense. Mind you this really has most of its bearing on why I think he is wrong about the Front range and plains of Colorado, not any other regions, although some the points could be extrapolated to nearby areas. I would also not that JB loves a snowy winter in the NE and he quite frequently tries to play them up. And "snowiest winter in 5 years" type headlines sell a lot of print if you get my drift

FROM THE OTHER POST:

I dont have a real good answer as to what El Nino will bring here. The effects of El Ninos on the front range appear to have been all over the map. Ultimately, I dont put too much stock in to Accuweathers maps as they tend to have poor resolution, and I have not read Bastardi specifically saying less precip for Denver/East of the front range. As you know, patterns that can leave the intermountain west and areas of CO west of the Divide high and dry, can often leave Denver and the areas east of the front range normal to wet....and vice versa. An example would be less than stellar ski years when Denver gets hammered and vice versa. Ultimately I think Accuwx prediction of drier than normal winter across the intermountain west could come true...but an el nino typical storm track could boad well for eastern Colorado as that puts storms into NE NM and SE CO/TX panhandle areas...good upslope conditions. He compared things to 02-03 winter which is curious.

2002-2003 el nino was an odd year. For one thing it was weak. And those years are less certain for storm tracks the produce good snows here. It was also mainly focused on the central pacific...which I have read limited data and info on, but there is some indication that this doesnt act like a typical el nino. Thus in Fall 02 when the weird central pac el nino raged on we have a relatively dry Oct-January period. Based on looking at the anomlies for the that el nino and the progression...through much of the fall and summer of 02...the year of the fires, the water in the east pac was normal to even cooler than normal, suggesting that while "el nino" was happening...we may have still been more under the influence of a la nina type pattern here in Colorado... The East pac, up against south america didnt warm in a more typical el nino fasion until later Januray 03...FEB, MARCH, APRIL, AND MAY of 03 ended up wet, and June of 03 acted much like this past June, cool and wet. And I need not mention 3 ft of snow in the March 03 blizzard. El nino fizzled all together during the summer and the rest of the 03 ended up dry.

Ultimately MOST other el ninos of any significance that were going on during spring yielded good years for snow in Denver and east of the front range. Fall also ends up snowy while an el nino is going on...winter is dicey. I could see a situation where if el nino stays true to form (and we really are getting more el nino like conditions now, so I dont have any reason to believe this one will act like the "central pac" 02-03 el nino yet) we could see a snowy Oct-December time frame and then have late winter/spring more normal to dry if el nino fizzles by then. In fact...in 06-07, an epic winter, el nino conditions were there until we rapidly flipped to la nina by Februrary...March-May ended below normal snow wise despite a banner year of winter snow and weekly storms. So there you have it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Any wagers for our first "real" cold front here in Texas after this long hot and dry summer?

I say October 3 with an average temp drop of 15 to 20 degrees. Front sweeps the state with a classic squall line and dumps an average of three to four inches of rain.

Now someone wake me up please.

[vbhoutex]

Any wagers for our first "real" cold front here in Texas after this long hot and dry summer?

I say October 3 with an average temp drop of 15 to 20 degrees. Front sweeps the state with a classic squall line and dumps an average of three to four inches of rain.

Now someone wake me up please.

Why would we when you dream so well?

[Tireman4]

I will take that dream and see you a snowstorm in Houston..... While we are dreaming you know.

[Sambucol]

I tried to get to the JB link to see what he said about Texas, but his post wasn't there any longer. Could someone post what he said? I am very ready for fall and winter...and hoping for snow and cold, too. Thanks.

[Johnny]

Yep, I don't see the forecast in the link either. I searched for it on the accuweather site but came up empty handed.

[breeze]

JB's winter forecast re-posted today - I figured the link will disappear in a few days, so
I'm posting the link and the article. I hope the mid-south sees some real S*N*O*W!

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather ... ?#extremes



Bastardi Says Core of Winter from D.C. to Charlotte
Posted 2009-10-14

According to AccuWeather.com's Chief Meteorologist and Expert
Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area
from Maryland to the Carolinas as a a fading El Niño results in the
stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

By Joe Bastardi
AccuWeather.com

According to AccuWeather.com's Chief Meteorologist and Expert Long Range Forecaster
Joe Bastardi, winter will be centered over an area from Maryland to the Carolinas as a
fading El Niño results in the stormiest and coldest pattern in recent years.

Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter and will probably not
have as much of a role in the overall weather pattern as one would think during a
typical El Niño year. In July, Joe was the first to talk about how the fading El Niño
will play a role in the winter forecast. This fading El Niño pattern will lead to a
stormier and colder winter in the southern and eastern United States. While the
El Niño is fading this winter, other factors are pointing to a winter very similar to
that of 2002-2003.

A colder, snowier winter would mean added snow removal efforts, more
travel delays and extended school closures, especially for the southern schools
where snow and ice is predicted.


Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be
from southern New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including
the Carolinas. Areas from Washington D.C. to Charlotte have had very little
snowfall the past two winters. This season these areas could end up with
above-normal snowfall.

Northern areas, including Buffalo, Boston and Maine, have been hit hard the
past couple of winters, but will see normal snowfall with temperatures slightly
below normal this winter.

However, the traditional lake-effect areas of western New York may see local
variations of heavier snows. Bastardi adds that while these areas will have a
normal winter, the areas farther south that have escaped from the snow and
cold the past couple of winters will see the worst winter conditions in the
form of snow and cold.

Cities such as New York, Boston and Philadelphia could get up to 75 percent
of their total snowfall in two or three big storms.

While some parts of the Appalachians did have harsh winter weather in the form
of ice last year, this winter could be one of the snowiest since 2002-2003, when
up to 80 inches fell in many places. Snowfall totals this year could reach between
50 and 100 inches in the Appalachians.

Last winter, the usage of salt was way up because of the number of ice storms.
Salt supplies could be compromised again this year for state and local road crews
that battle the winter weather. On the other hand, ski resorts could have a great
year with plenty of powder for skiers.

The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms into
Southern California, then across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard.
That track will lead to the normal amount of nor'easters from Cape Hatteras to
New Jersey.

This type of storm track will differ from that of the past two years, when storms
tended to take a track farther west from Texas into the Great Lakes. That track
into the Great Lakes brought unseasonably mild weather to the major East Coast
cities, keeping them on the rainy side of the storms.


The South

The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities
on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have
several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in
a while.

The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and
snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter,
people from Dallas to the Carolinas could say "Wow, we had snow this year!"
said Bastardi.


Midwest and Plains

The Midwest and central Plains could get a break this winter, given that past
couple of winters have been cold and snowy. Places such as Chicago, Omaha,
Minneapolis and Kansas City may have below-normal snowfall and could even
average a bit milder than past years.

However, Oklahoma into Texas will be where the cold will lead to ice and snow,
and it is not out of the question that snow and ice are as far south as
College Station and San Antonio, Texas.


West and Pacific Northwest

A warm and somewhat dry weather pattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Plains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle and
Portland may not occur this winter, which would lead to below-normal precipitation.

The core of the wet weather will be south of San Francisco into southern California
and the Southwest. While some people across Southern California fear the El Ni
intense rains, mudslides and flooding as seen this fall.

For example, Los Angeles could have 110 percent of normal rainfall and the
Sierra and Southwest mountains will have the normal amount of snowfall which
is good for skiers.


The Olympics

The Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia, from Feb.12 to 28 could be impacted
by the lack of snow and cold weather this winter. It is possible that a dry and mild
pattern will develop very near to or during the time of the Olympics.

[somethingfunny]

I love JB because he always tells me the sweet nothings I love to hear.

[angelwing]

OOooooooo, I hope the mid-atlantic part goes! We just moved out of Philly to another part of the state that always gets inches of snow when Philly would get a dusting....can't wait!!!

[Stephanie]

They were talking about this forecast on the local news radio station this evening. That storm track is always what gives us the huge snow storms. I just hope that IF this does pan out, it happens when I can take off from work. Last year's combo snow/ice storms kept hitting at the wrong time.

Also, the first Nor'easter of the season is brewing for tomorrow through Friday. The coast is under a high wind warning.

[angelwing]

They were talking about this forecast on the local news radio station this evening. That storm track is always what gives us the huge snow storms. I just hope that IF this does pan out, it happens when I can take off from work. Last year's combo snow/ice storms kept hitting at the wrong time.

Also, the first Nor'easter of the season is brewing for tomorrow through Friday. The coast is under a high wind warning.

I heard, I am not looking forward to the drive over the PA/NJ turnpike tomorrow, the last high winds we had last week it was murder trying to keep the van on the road

[Stephanie]

Yeah, bridges are scary for any high profile vehicle. I have a Honda CR-V. There's one bridge that crosses the back bays into Atlantic City itself off of the Expressway that is pretty white-knuckle when the winds blow. I love looking at how rough the back bays are though when a storm is brewing or the wind is blowing. It almost looks as rough as the ocean on a normal day.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Hopefully he is right about north Texas having snow and ice! It would be nice to see a real winter here!